Tesla’s trillion dollar valuation is fast approaching

[hanera]

Just to be sure we’re talking in the same wavelength.

What does 50% refer to?
a. Revenue growth (yoy or qoq)
b. Earning growth (yoy or qoq)
c. Eps growth (yoy or qoq)
d. Cashflow growth (yoy or qoq)

For the same growth rate, as discount rate shoot up (usually use 10-year T), DCF valuation of a stock would decline. Yield of 10-year T has been trending up

P/E = 1/ 10-yr T = 1/4.176% = 23.9, view as the expected P/E of S&P

E in P/E is eps

eps = earning/ share count, so eps is affected by share count for a given earning

Share count trend

[hanera]

WS is not convinced by EM optimism.

[Roy321]

For a growth company, among the 4 isn’t revenue growth the most important?

[hanera]

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@Roy321

For a growth company, among the 4 isn’t revenue growth the most important?

Multiple to use according to stage of growth…

[Roy321]

1. R&D - it’s all about Hope

[Roy321]

3. Hyper-growth - High Revenue growth is required for high profits.

[wuqijun]

I thought he has a mansion somewhere in San Martin. Also he has a home in Cupertino. He does have money, but perhaps misallocated.

[hanera]

@Roy321

Hyper-growth - High Revenue growth is required for high profits.

Gross margin is important too Given so much talk by Cathie and fin twitters, I was expecting increasing gross margin. It is declining??? Btw, I didn’t bother to do any DD seriously because I didn’t invest much. The only stock I ever do serious DD is AAPL

[wuqijun]

It’s not growing due to new Gigafactory ramp and foreign exchange hit. Also FSD is not really fully functional yet. It should improve dramatically in the future.

[hanera]

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@wuqijun

I thought he has a mansion somewhere in San Martin. Also he has a home in Cupertino. He does have money, but perhaps misallocated.

Mainly to poke him. If I am not wrong, his NW = Primary home + IRA, not much cash.

[wuqijun]

It really is rather sad seeing this. People on this forum aren’t exactly helping either, putting him on a pedestal that is unfounded.

[Jil]

@hanera

I didn’t bother to do any DD seriously because I didn’t invest much.

This is the whole point !

Many investors understand properly after seeing WS reaction, but they have to foresee before they invest money.

That is the work of intelligent investor !

Btw: When I try to educate everyone here, I understand lot of evil-jealous talks/jokes. I do understand those, but I ignore them. Do not think I am naive enough to believe everyone!!!

Last answer: I want hide all NW , that is why choose 10k only. Rest will be hidden completely by 2030.

[Roy321]

@hanera

Gross margin is important too Given so much talk by Cathie and fin twitters, I was expecting increasing gross margin. It is declining???

of course, but basically you need revenue to fund your growth. Then the company can spend on creating assets. Tesla AFAIK doesn’t spend much on marketing, except being forced to spend on Twitter now

[Jil]

@Roy321

basically you need revenue to fund your growth.

Anything helps grow CAGR will be priced in that includes revenue growth, profit margin, income growth, expansion, debt ratio etc.

See the difference between TSLA vs NFLX how WS evaluates now !

TSLA

NFLX

[Roy321]

@wuqijun

Also FSD is not really fully functional yet.

FSD is a big question. It’s in the price/hope ratio like stage 1 in the picture that @hanera posted.

[Roy321]

NFLX WS was looking at subscriber growth/loss?

[wuqijun]

That’s what makes it exciting. Why bother invest into a stock like Tsla if all the potential is already baked in? Might as well go buy a couple more rentals instead.

Also, FSD is not quite at stage 1 as you claimed. People are already paying some money for it so it’s at least early stage 2.

[Jil]

@Roy321

NFLX WS was looking at subscriber growth?

Subscribers are future payers, assume $1 income increase per subscription per month.

They also look advertising revenue and income stream when NFLX introduced new $6.99 programs.

NFLX also cuts sharing access not more than six.

Everything contributes growth.

[Roy321]

@wuqijun

Also, FSD is not quite at stage 1 as you claimed. People are already paying some money for it so it’s at least early stage 2.

I agree some people are paying money. For a system which can’t even navigate a parking lot summon properly, it’s the trumph of hope over performance currently. When/if it starts working well Level 5 autonomous, it’ll be good for Tesla.

[hanera]

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@wuqijun

It really is rather sad seeing this. People on this forum aren’t exactly helping either, putting him on a pedestal that is unfounded.

@Jil doesn’t need any help. He came here for relaxation. I am giving him more stimulation to help him relax.

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@Jil

I want hide all NW , that is why choose 10k only. Rest will be hidden completely by 2030.

Either you’re smart or you understand me. That’s my hidden goal of the “poke”.