Instant rebate! Should boost EV sales.
BYD overtakes Tesla:
The number one cost of vehicle ownership is depreciation.
EVs don’t compare well. Especially to Toyotas.
European ICE cars have massive depreciation also… mainly due to high maintenance costs.
Look at how many cars are made in China vs US. 10x
What’s really amazing is the US makes fewer cars than Spain.
Of course a lot of US cars are made in Canada and Mexico also, and this number only includes 100% American made. Many more are assembled with foreign made parts or by foreign car companies.
Car manufacturers are all global now. But almost half of all the world’s cars are manufactured in China… an amazing change in 20 years…
That car production can’t be right.
This says it’s over 13M which seems closer to correct.
I think it’s more like 9million. But yeah that chart I posted is one of those time machine ones. Probably best to show trends
I put the delivery numbers into Excel.
| Year | Delivery | YoY growth | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 22,442 | |||
| 2014 | 31,655 | 1.41 | ||
| 2015 | 50,517 | 1.60 | ||
| 2016 | 76,243 | 1.51 | ||
| 2017 | 103,091 | 1.35 | ||
| 2018 | 245,491 | 2.38 | 5-year avg | 1.65 |
| 2019 | 367,656 | 1.50 | ||
| 2020 | 499,535 | 1.36 | ||
| 2021 | 936,222 | 1.87 | ||
| 2022 | 1,313,851 | 1.40 | ||
| 2023 | 1,808,581 | 1.38 | 5-year avg | 1.50 |
Growth is decelerating. They need to do massive price cut to have anywhere close to 38% growth rate this year. I think I saw Troy predicting 2.2M delivery this year? Don’t remember the exact number. If true that’d just be 22% growth, by far the lowest growth rate.
The question is whether the decelerating demand is due to higher interest rate and insurance or people who want to buy an EV and have yet to buy one is reducing or the Chinese EVs (cheap and sleek) are stalling Tesla’s international expansion. For sure, I’m not one of those who want an EV, unless forced by government regulations. I gather from social media that the cost per mile of using the supercharging station is about the same as gas. So to benefit from EV, need to charge at home.
I think Tesla is held back by just having 2 models of cars. X and S don’t count because their volume is so small. Jury is still out for Cybertruck but it seems polarizing.
Functionality of a car is mostly determined by its “shape”, including size. Like a truck has a certain shape. A minivan has a certain shape. A traditional car company like Toyota has tens of car shapes for customers to choose from. Tesla could benefit by offering more options.
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Eventually. EM is copying how Apple did for iPhone.
For most people. For me, safety, reliability and minimum maintenance.
Demand for all EVs is down, not just Tesla’s. As seen by monitoring used EV price trends.
Partly interest rates but also I agree partly we are past tech enthusiasts and getting to people who are a little more conservative with purchases. Given inflation, interest rates, recession fears, etc… I think these people aren’t jumping to EVs as much as maybe they would in a more confident economic environment. This may take a few years to normalize.
Still have high confidence in the transition to mostly EVs.
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EV’s are simply incapable of meeting all the personal transportation needs of the average American. Plenty of people are buying new cars; just not EV’s. They’re fine if you also have a gas car. But you mostly have to be suburban or rural to have a place to park multiple cars and the further you get from urban centers the less sense EV’s make. In the area where I live, comprised of one smallish town and three smaller hamlets - say 25,000 people total - EV’s have a penetration of almost zero.
SF is the 2nd densest city in America and I see tons of Tesla’s and other EV’s. I have seen many just parked on the street. My neighbor has one and they just park it on their driveway. From the look of it they don’t have a home charger.
Many make it work using only public chargers. Don’t know how or why but many EV owners don’t have home charging infra.
EV adoption may be decelerating but trend is still up and to the right. Overtime all new cars sold will be electric. China is already at 25% or so, and many of their EV’s are actually cheaper than ICE cars. So overtime EV does have a cost advantage. It just needs time to get there.
Jobs was a hippy too. No biggie.
Tesla’s problem is the market saturation their flagship product will reach in the next three years or so.
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Would saturate without government help. Didn’t California pass a law to ban sale of new ICE cars by 2035? If the next President is a Democrat, this law may apply to entire USA.
Teslas stock value is depending on the government forcing people to buy its crap. The public is preferring ICE and hybrids. Tesla is one political election away from oblivion. Win by the sword die by the sword. Strange that Musk is so anti government regulations
considering his whole net worth was created by government regulations and subsidies.
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Burn the bridge after crossing it 
I consider 15-20% EV’s to be market saturation.
Banning gas cars would be political (and economic) suicide. Look at the fuss over gas stoves.