Elon claims he can just jump in and creates something that “rivals” the best from Nvidia. Does that sound reasonable? Tesla is also one of the biggest buyers of A100. If Tesla has something equivalent in house, why give money to Jensen?
Optimus bot requires some first principle thinking. Autonomous driving is a much easier problem than having a bot in your kitchen doing chores. Why? Think about how many degrees of controls a car has. You can turn the steering wheel. That’s one degree. You can increase/decrease speed, that’s another. So altogether only 2 degrees of freedom. Now think how many joints a robot has in its body. Easily 30 or more. Each joint is one degree of freedom or more.
Cars on roads are also a much more regimented environment than you kitchen. And Tesla hasn’t even cracked the self driving problem. How come people expect their bot will be on market in 2 years?
I have written about FSD many times in the past. Won’t repeat here. All these reasoning doesn’t need advanced degrees.
By don’t work, I see you mean make a better chip. I know that. No way Elon can make a chip better than NVDA because Jensen is visionary and highly technically competent… Jensen is an outstanding engineer.
Don’t remember what you have written. All I know is average Joe like me won’t want my life to be in the hands of an autonomous vehicle. The edge cases are enormous, so I don’t know what a workable FSD means. However, I don’t know whether it is technically feasible to make a FSD or not.
You don’t know how it is going to be implemented. However, I won’t want a robot with AGI in the home. My life is in danger.
Self driving is already a common place occurrence in SF. Next time you come back to the Bay come to SF and take a Waymo cab.
FSD is a Level 2 system and will stay L2 at most 3. Elon’s pipedream of an owner-operated robotaxi fleet will never materialize. If it’s Tesla operating that fleet I can see it’s possible, provided Elon gave up on his vision only approach. I am talking about average Joe letting his Tesla loose to drive by itself and earn him money. That will never happen. You don’t need technical knowledge. Just think operationally how that will work. Or won’t work in this case.
The whole point of my reasoning is that it is independent of how it’s implemented. It’s like using the principle of energy conservation in physics. You don’t need to know how a gadget is implemented to know a perpetual motion machine is impossible.
Here I am talking about the fundamental difficulty of a kitchen humanoid robot. It is 100x more difficult than self driving cars. We can have specialized robots though that don’t look like humans. Your dish washer is one. Here I am talking about a general purpose robot that can do what your maid does. Much more difficult than self driving cars and Tesla hasn’t even solved the easier problem.
I have read and then forgotten what L1 to L5 means. IMHO, is a waste of time using these terms for average Joe… sound professional but after awhile average Joe forgot what they mean. All I want to know is: is it safe to let an AV drive itself? I am a laggard in adoption of AV. Anyhoo, I still don’t know what is a FSD … does it mean no need any human intervention at all times?
That won’t work for sure from a business perspective.
You need to know. You seem to have a preconceived stage of implementation in mind.
In most part of the world, maid is cheap and efficient. TSLA investors think everywhere is like USA.
Q4 was 3% YoY revenue growth. 20% would be a BIG acceleration of revenue growth from here. That’s also a HUGE expansion of net income margin. Plus, how is share count going to decrease 10%? If anything, it’ll increase due to SBC. I think it highlights how absolutely insane the current valuation is.
Uber TSLA bull, Vitality (of finance junkies) has finally realized high interest rate is bad for auto and solar. Has dumped a large % of his TSLA and ENPH holdings. However, he insists TSLA would 10x by 2030 but buy into the narrative uttered by many that TSLA would go nowhere for 1-2 years.
You realize you’re talking about companies who sell products world wide, right? They already compete everywhere. It’s not like they are going from selling products in California to Texas, because they can’t compete selling in California.
Companies that moved out usually rationalized their move for costs reason. If a company shifts their focus from growing revenue to saving pennies, that tells me it’s already past its prime and no longer in its growth phase.
Mark KO Elon without going to the ring.
Market cap of META is twice the market cap of TSLA.
Mark corners the H100 GPUs (bot 150k) leaving a meager 15k for Elon.
Best, Mark doesn’t blackmail and dilute shareholders’ ownership.
… does it mean no need any human intervention at all times?
