The Asian Economy

Asian economies, as defined by Unctad, will be larger than the rest of the world combined in 2020, for the first time since the 19th century

Asia’s recent surge, which began with Japan’s postwar economic surge, represents a return to a historical norm. Asia dominated the world economy for most of human history until the 19th century.

18th century to 20th century…

Then, for three centuries, Asia’s place in the world shrank as western economies took off, powered by what academics refer to as the Scientific Revolution, then the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution.

Asia has way more people than the other continents. What matters is GDP per capita which determines living standard. Asia’s is still woefully low.

Actually I don’t think Asia will have the biggest economy in the next 100 years. Chinese economy is peaking relative to American in nominal USD terms. The other two big countries, India and Indonesia, are still underperforming relative to their potentials. People proclaiming the Asian century just extrapolate the current trend and assume it will go on forever. It doesn’t work that way.

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You are also extrapolating :slight_smile:

Do you know what is a S curve?

Do you know that you can have majority of the people is living sub-standard lives and yet high GDP per capita?

Look at this chart…

Singapore has higher GDP per capita than USA’s $62518. In reality, life in USA is better as they live in bigger and better houses (SFH vs HDB*) and can afford many cars. GDP includes profits from businesses! There are many MNCs and SOEs in Singapore, so GDP accrued to Singaporeans are not that high.

*$1M HDB is not as good as a $300k SFH.

Well, first, do we know as a fact countries’ GDP follow S curves? And second, are you assuming the final flat end of the curve are at similar height? There is this thing called middle income trap, which says most countries got stuck of middle income stage at 10 to 20k per capita and never get higher than that. So China could well be stuck below 15k while US keeps charging higher.

GDP per capita and living standard are highly correlated, but doesn’t mean correlation is one. Think in terms of probability and the world will make much better sense.

I highly recommend this book by George Magnus. He details the four traps facing Xi’s China: debt, demography, middle income and RMB. The medium term trend growth for China may be as low as 3 to 4%. China is creating credit at a fast clip to prop up its economy, but they need more than two additional dollars of debt to buy one dollar of marginal GDP. They tried deleveraging but economy slowed so much they wet their pants and changed course. They can’t keep printing money forever.

Talking about Asia not USA :slight_smile: China not equal Asia. HKers don’t fail to bash China at any opportunity :thinking: Predictions are just predictions, not always correct. And you take the opportunity to bash?

Btw, 80% of the predictions including yours turn out to be wrong :grinning: