It is not boring, but wild volatile hours. If you are tied to stock market, you need watch this so that you get all information in crux.
You will soon be mis-informed by news/media etc and you will believe news/media analysts are correct!
Are you still peddling your theory that the Ukraine war has no effect on inflation?
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Did I say that? I am countering your thesis that Ukraine war solely cause the inflation in US (not Europe) to jump to 9.1%. Are you still keeping that thesis?
One need to be precise with @manch, quoting wrongly and often misleading others.
Never said Ukraine war was the only factor in inflation, but it’s a major one. I gave you a number of factors that work in the other direction like a weak Chinese economy and increased production from allies.
This is not you?
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Maybe you should explain your theory on how it’s contributing or show some data. Oil prices are lower than they were before the war started. Oil should be the commodity most impacted by it. So where is the inflation due to it? It isn’t impacting rents which are one of the biggest drivers of inflation.
You see the bump in the middle?
There is no one single factor driving gas prices. I have yet to see people questioning the war driving up oil prices, well except on this forum.
Why did gas prices fall now? Partly because Biden drew down the strategic reserve, partly because we increased production:
partly because the biggest consumer of oil, China, has its economy in the toilets, etc etc. The world doesn’t stand still. People don’t just take the Russian oil hit and did nothing. They reacted to remedy the situation.
I don’t think anyone is arguing there wasn’t a temporary increase due to the war. We’re past that though and prices are lower. Today’s prices aren’t showing signs of inflation due to the war.
Yes, we are past that. We are also mostly past the supply chain shock due to Covid. This inflation flare up has proven to be transitory. Nothing secular whatsoever, despite the rabid fear mongering from people like Summers.
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Look like you want to go through the posts to prove that you mislead, watching TV, may be some other day.
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You can’t conclude that. If don’t know why, shred you degree 
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His original argument is the increment is entirely due to war. My argument then is war + other… increment is not solely due to war. He has yet to prove his thesis. His thesis implies without the war, inflation would be flat or declining.
Too lazy to search now, maybe other days, quote his original posts to show context.
China opening up will certainly be inflationary to oil and a few other categories. I think the Fed is waiting to see that before concluding that things are under control.
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Supply chain shock is pretty much gone too. Shipping rates have plummeted. We’ve had record inventory levels for awhile now to the point retailers had to start black Friday sales early and do a lot of discounting to clear inventory.
Now, at this point, none of this matter to FED. It is like they grabbed lion tail (inflation) and they need to maintain economic pressure until the lion is completely Killed! If they blink in between, it will backfire.
Exactly similar way in finance term Powell stated, if we loose early, like 1970s inflation will come back again.
Until FOMC team is convinced this pressure will be there.
They lowered the GDP growth to 0.5 from 1.2, this means economy will be severely contracts, with potential recession coming next year (exactly the yield curve inversion gives the clue).
I think they are over correcting, because of how late they were to address inflation. They called it transitory for how long before actually taking action? It’s human nature to over correct after an error, and they are human.
You realize GDP growth of 0.5% means the economy won’t contract, right? That’s still growing just at a very slow rate. We’d have to go negative for your severe contraction scenario.
There are many ways GDP can be 0.5 next year. Think various permutations and combinations how GDP growth can be 0.5%.
Next 2 qtrs., it can be negative, and 3rd and 4th may be up
Next 3 qtrs, it can be negative, and 4th qtr it may recover
Here comes Yield curve inversion handy. When Yield curve is deeply inverted like this, we infer recession which is consecutive qtrs negative growth, thereafter it jump way high and matches 0.5%
FED knows all these, but they do not openly say anything.