Huge rally on Monday?
One hawkish comment by a Fed governor leads to two days of sharp drop.
I always said we wouldn’t have meaningful inflation unless wages increases. Wages increased a lot in a short period of time. Minimum wage is effectively $15/hr now even in smaller towns. Now the question is how much did all the near-zero rate and fed bond buying coil up the spring?
Oh, I think this also proves implementing a $15/hr minimum wage would cause inflation and not improve the standard of living for anyone. All the people that said it wouldn’t cause inflation were full of it.
The scary part is 80% of USD in existence was printed since Jan 2020. What will happen if Fed starts running off the balance sheet? Fed didn’t say how much USD would be removed from the system. If remove 80%, stocks would tumble to oblivion. Ditto for house prices. Perhaps, we should keep tons of cash like WB did for BRK.
SG understood this, so no minimum wage. Is better to let the market decides. The only thing SG government intervenes is to keep house prices low enough for young first time buyers. Even then, SG government is unable to counter recent supply chain issues and geopolitical turmoil, house prices have been galloping despite numerous cooling measures. Rent has shot up by 40%-50% in just a few months. Prices about 10%. Goal of SG cooling measures is to keep price appreciation in lined with inflation or below 4% p.a.
We’re in uncharted territory. None of them know what actions to take or what the consequences will be. They were following the headline unemployment number not the under employment. The declining labor force participation rate should have been a sign too.
I guess now we are seeing what the market wants interest rates to be without the fed buying bonds. Interest rates were irrationally low. No sane person would buy 10-year treasuries yielding under 2%.
Now we sit back and hope they can land the plane with minimal turbulence. We’re trusting a group of people with minimal life experience outside of academia and working for the government.
I have no clue why Biden just extended the pause on student loan payments. People having that extra money to spend is inflationary. He’s probably just trying to delay the anger for not forgiving some amount of the debt.
While we are focusing on Fed policies, Black Swans are appearing…
Ukraine-Russia war is a small Black Swan.
Is the potential blowup of China’s zero-Covid policy a big Black Swan event?
Concerted effort to bring down FANGMANT.
It’s very odd that Nasdaq is down but cloud stocks are up. I think we have rotation back into growth names happening.
From a math perspective, a recession might be inevitable. The government is cutting spending by ~5% of GDP. Is consumer or business spending going to make up the difference? If not, then we will have a recession as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Is that really the end of the world?
After selling equities to pay taxes, now sell bonds to buy equities?
Rumors are war ending on May 9?
Covid is almost over except in China which should be over in 2 months?
Who owns bonds? TLT and IEF puts have been my best returns this year.
Today buy Treasuries, sell growth!
MSFT PTRA green
AAPL green red green red
Growth red Can the TWTR raider turn the tide?
WS seems to want to push down AAPL NVDA TSLA. So far TSLA escaped because of the stupidity of traditional car manufacturers advertising EVs in Super Bowl.
The only way to avoid being hammered is A+ result + promising guidance. Tough given the war, hyperinflation and Fed’s action.