Bearish view…
Strengthening dollar and surging long. term Treasuries surprise investors…
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MW says the high for the 10y was about 4.7%, not 5.02%
Still it’s refreshing to see an analysis that doesn’t focus on Trump. His policies will likely have a minimal impact compared to the stuff on that list.
I for one don’t much care of the market takes a dump. I live off dividends. To the extent I underspend them and would like to reinvest the excess I’d much rather have a market at a PE and yield closer to historic levels. Millennials are hosed; they’re trying to build a nestegg for the future by dollar cost averaging into a really expensive market.
Stocks are like eggs. If the price went up but the eggs didn’t get bigger than the eggs got more expensive, not more valuable. If share prices go up but earnings barely budge stocks got more expensive, not more valuable. Speculators benefit from lofty valuations but it’s hard to see how anybody else does.
Almost all stocks rallying,.
???
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Saw an hedge fund guy says because real estate is such a shitshow, money is finding its way into more alternative assets like Bitcoin. I imagine some of that RE money found its way into US equities too. On top of that money is try to flee China. Where can it go but here?
US is about the only big country with a booming economy. Maybe we can include Japan in that list but that’s about it. Europe is a walking corpse. China is going into deflation. UK and Canada are also terribly weak. Worldwide, money has no way to go but come here. USD is strong because we are the only economy standing.
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The “sudden hate on Indians” is mostly a Twitter online thing I think. Racists being racist, no surprise there. Elon other the other hand seems to have been surprised by the hateful echo chamber he himself nourished. Pretty naive of him to think he can control where the hate is directed at.
There are some valid criticisms of the H1B program, like they should not be handed out via a lottery, and the number going to consulting firms like Tata is too large. Other than that I don’t think most Americans have any hate on H1B’s, or Indians in particular. Otherwise we won’t see so many very successful mainstream politicians of Indian heritage like Vivek and Nikki. Even Kamala is Indian herself.
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I don’t do Twitter but haven’t heard any hate directed toward Indians or H1B. Plenty directed toward open borders but not H1B and this is in a lot of quarters that are very pro Trump and anti Biden. I note that Indians still seem well received in England - their last conservative PM was Indian - and there’s as much tension fueled by immigration in England as there is in the US.
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Yes.
I see a late more hate focused on big business and “the wealthy”. Profits in general.
It’s actually kind of scary. I mean, look at the support of the assassination of the UHC CEO.
You can find videos of prominent doctors effectively excusing, if not supporting, that action.
WTF?
.
Happened everywhere (nations). All kinds of crime are on the rise. More dramatic in USA because of the easy availability of firearms and weak police. This always happen during a recession (more dramatic during a depression), Currently, the divide has increased because of inflation… poor has less and less purchase power while wealthy (asset owners) are doing well. I suspect Trump is aware of this… rumors has it that he is dialing back on tariffs on other nations (very inflationary)… no longer 50-100% tariffs on imports.
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I saw somewhere UNH has the highest claim denial rate.
Health care in this country is messed up mostly not because of insurance companies. Doctor supply is artificially throttled by the Doctor Cartel to inflate their own salary. There is no reason why doctors need to start learning how to be a doctor after bachelor degree. Most other countries start right away at bachelor. Drug prices are orders of magnitude higher here because drug companies have powerful lobbies in DC to keep it that way.
I think these other factors contribute more to insane medical costs than insurance companies. But doctors are put on a pedestal while insurance companies are treated as pure evil. As long as that misconception continues there won’t be any real solutions.