If BTC remains above $20k, and ETH remains above $1k, market would open pretty green 2mrw.
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Everybody is now convinced that…
Inflation would be around for a long time because of war
Recession soon
Bear market would last a lot longer than most expect
House prices are crashing (another word for declining) in some areas
Market won’t bottom till Fed Uturn
Should we follow the crowd and run out (theater is on fire) or be contrarian (crowd is running towards a cliff)?
Like Fed keep monitoring the indicators (CPI: war / supply chains / …) and then decide. If there is an indication of headline inflation going in the right direction, markets will turn around. Other option is to just give enough time for all these to settle down and do something else productive… 
Trading can be done any day.
If you want, buy and hold, not easy to time it.
You need have a strategy to DCA periodically at attractive dips, never bother whether it goes up or down!
No one knows the bottom except after the facts.
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I am thinking of when to buy LEAPS calls (2-3 years out) for certain stocks e.g. TSLA/NVDA/AMZN, and TQQQ. Higher probability of 10x over 2-3 years than praying your choice of growth stocks is outstanding.
Really??? wow man…
I’ll bookmark this statement 
That is 100% True. If someone able to know, then he/she is a god !
Even with my algorithmic help, which is pure mathematics and statistics, I can find possible bottom and possible peak. This is trillion dollar market, very hard to predict precisely as we have millions of possibilities/permutations and combinations.
For example: If index jumps from 200 to 300, I can spot bottom between 200 and 210, then buy into it and top 290 and 300 then sell those etfs. Luckily, I am spotting the top exactly on same day or next day, but bottom is too hard to predict.
My take is go with stocks, not with options or leaps. Even blue chips are not exceptions, I vote for no options. Greediness kills, safety of your money is very important.
TQQQ has CONTANGO decay factor with swap contracts, best to buy at close when market dips more than 4% and sell when market jump more than 2%.
For buy & Hold, read about this blogs, rare materials shared with deep analysis by someone invested 300k with TQQQ ( Reddit - Dive into anything ). For BUY & Hold, TQQQ is best if you can catch at dep bottom and hold for many years like the author who bought in Mar 2020.
Buffet Quote: To make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need. That is foolish. That is just plain foolish. It doesn’t make any difference what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just does not make any sense.
BTW: I am trying to stay away from any kind of advice, On any case, safety of money is very important.
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When is the deep bottom? Many pundits/gurus/furus say is in full capitulation, need to wait for despair phase.
Ultimate goal is long term ROI. Nobody could beat the Buffet challenge. Here ‘Nobody’ meant Hedge Fund/s.
The Buffett Challenge, hedge funds vs. index funds, 9 years on
- After nine years, hedge fund portfolios are up 22 percent on average, compared to 85.4 percent for Warren Buffett’s Vanguard Admiral Shares S&P 500 Index Fund pick.
- Three of the five hedge funds have average annualized returns of less than 1 percent.
- Buffett’s charity beneficiary looks set to get account funds come Dec. 31, 2017, as the Oracle of Omaha’s bet outperforms Protege Partners’ five undisclosed hedge funds.
In 2008, Warren Buffett issued a challenge to the hedge fund industry, which in his view charged exorbitant fees that the funds’ performances couldn’t justify. Protégé Partners LLC accepted, and the two parties placed a million-dollar bet.
Not at all easy work. I used to watch TQQQ, buy it at deep bottom wait for it to go 35% or 40% and sell it. If I feel not comfortable, I keep cash. This is good at bear times, but not good at bull run !
Just made a rule TQQQ best to buy at close when market dips more than 4% and sell when market jump more than 2%.
Most of the HF managers are focusing on their commission (own income) than improving clients return! With big amount, multi-millions, it is hard for HF to balance between their income and clients best return.
They are really marketing oriented, getting big clients (as clients do not have time to manage), clients compromise less than S&P as they do not have time (say any company directors, VP…etc).
HF really need to pay strong fundamental analysts to buy right stocks. If they fail to get (like Cathie wood or Jim Cramer) right stocks, they will end up poor run than S&P.
People like Bill Ackman, Seth Klarman, Carl Ichan, Paul Singer (and Jim Simon - best but closed fund)…etc doing better run, but each one is specialized in some areas.
Individuals, like us, we do not have such good FA skills or resources, we rarely pick up good stocks, then allocation issue - really tough call. What retailer do mostly is layman dart, just buy some stock based on market action/reaction.
The best is pick the good ETFs, allocation will be easier than single stock. We can max 10 ETFs and apply 10% each.
Anyway, these are theories, but hard to practice, but possible to win over S&P easily with ETFs.
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Reason for the above. Market can swing 6%-10% during peak recession period suddenly and leaps will go deep negative.
Market is also not going straight down or up, but winding way - affects the return. We need longer holding power.
Leaps are good at deep recession time, basically bull run after recession time. Buy LEAPs after few trade halts in market !
Best is slow and steady race with forward looking stocks or ETFs.
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My advisor at Wells Fargo predicts Dow 24,000. S&P 2600 and market not recovering for 10 years. A nasty penalty for the Biden stimulus package and a do nothing Fed. He says sell all stocks bought in the bubble since 2016 and buy treasuries munies or stay in cash.
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Bonds are at as much risk as stocks. Maybe more. And rates on cash are still stuck far below the yield on the S&P while the cash devalues. Unless a person is convinced they have exceptional market timing skills why not just ride it out and collect the tax advantaged dividends in the mean time?
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Crude oil and yield of 10yr decline.
Bonds are for billionaires, not sure why WS promotes to retail investors.
Bonds are coming down to match the interest rate. Better to stay cash. We will end up with nice recession and when everyone hates stock (yeah, day will come, no one will buy stocks), get in to stocks.
Now, Cash is the King !
FDIC insures $250k per account per person. Open accounts in BAC CHASE C WFC, total $1M.
SIPC insures $500k including $250k cash. Open accounts in Fidelity, Vanguard, Ameritrade, eTrade, total $1M.
More than $2M, then put in S&P.
If we expect banks, such as JPM or BAC, or brokers, Vanguard or Fidelity, are going to file bankruptcy, we need to secure like FDIC or SIPC…etc.
We just keep cash in money market funds or treasury, but this will be very temporary. However, S&P500 is also risky.
When we keep cash, it is devalued/decreased by inflations while S&P gets further correction, it can be more than inflation.
The better way, I guess, let us see some stock trading halts (if that happens) or deep S&P correction or when FED stops increasing rate, we can put it in S&P.
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This is not entirely correct. Generally correct and quoted as if is universally true.
Context: Inflation of what? Consumer products? What about asset? Stocks are deflating now. That is, cash not planned for purchasing consumer products are increasing in value against stocks 
If gurus/furus are correct, soon it would also increase in value vs RE.
Volatile, hardly risky. May be I should say, volality risk to those who trade but no (unless USA is nuclear) existential risk to both traders and investors. You can buy S&P with DRIP, hibernate for 100 years, wake up to a 30,000 bagger.
Keeping more than $2M in cash ?
