Today Market October 2022

This month is gonna be “fun”. Ready for earnings season?

Knox is optimistic though:

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Chamath is getting bullish!

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Suddenly Chamath and Elliotticians feel optimistic. TA wise potential double bottom. If market reverses here, it means WS is not able to slaughter AAPL and TSLA (both didn’t decline below Jun 16 low), merely harass.

Da market is in the shitter. What’s next? I plan on making some low ball RE offers… like Reinv.

Big money is made in bear markets. Go out and make some bids.


Don’t want to wait till Q1?

He is referring to property market. Is not in bear market, is in correction only.

RE is in bear market in some shit towns like A something something.



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Looking now. Watching some dogs dropping in price. Buy when there is mud in the streets. Waiting for the repeat of the 1862 flood that put Sacramento 10’ under water… only looking a higher elevation properties


Well, unless Fed u-turn i.e. start reducing rate, not interested in buying any RE. Current expectation is Fed will continue hiking till Feb 2023. Fed won’t stop hiking till unemployment rate starts to increase and wages start to decrease. Declining CPI and inflation means nothing. Need wage to decrease. What I heard is people is getting good pay increments.

What is happening now with market is free fall, no buyers and most of them are sellers, be it retail or institutional.

FED will hike two more times total 1.25%, either Nov or Dec or both. Expecting this market drops drastically now SPY towards $300 range(40% range). If FED raises rate in Nov and Dec further, the slide won’t stop and naturally they will end up stopping the rate hikes.

If Market touches 60% from ATH, it will be too much for economy as we may have wide domino effect.

If they continue until Feb 2023, it will be disaster for those who holds stocks.

Stock and RE market is of no interest to Fed. Increase in unemployment rate or wage decrease, else hike till they happen. Neither does Fed care about other sovereign becoming insolvent. Have you heard of any people who can’t find jobs or not getting good pay increment? I believe no. Until then, hike!

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No? Is figuratively :slight_smile: Ofc there are e.g. short covering and index funds.

Anyhoo, bulk of the investors are waiting for Fed to U-Turn :slight_smile:

No buy stocks, no buy RE, no home improvements, no new apparel, … travel :+1: entertainment :+1:

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Lehman 2.0?

The latest from Credit Suisse signals a “rocky period” ahead but it could lead to a change in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s direction, said John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

“The silver lining at end of this period is the fact that central banks will probably start to relent some time as both inflation is down and financial conditions worsen dramatically,” Vail said. “I don’t think it’s the end of the world.”

If the crazy Fed doesn’t let up soon it will end up breaking lots of things.

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Ditto !

Right from PARA(ViacomCBS), they are not doing well.

The market rallying despite Credit Suisse is interesting.

Last bull trap or traps? No trust unless Fed is dovish.

I went to a couple of open houses in shingle springs yesterday. One old guy wants $925k for 1800sf 3/2… 2 sloped acres. Older seller with a cluttered home needing updates . 40 year old house with an extra 3car garage detached. Maybe worth an extra $30k. Vs a modern 20 year old 2100, 4/2 with office for $699k. The old guy is out to lunch. Probably his house is worth $600k. Looks to me that there are still plenty of delusional sellers out there. The newer one is worth $600k also. Would rent for $3500… within commute zone to downtown Sacramento …

Look at the pictures on the older home. The realtor showed the kitchen cabinets white vs the current dated oak look. They repainted the exterior. Fir an extra $500 they could have painted the kitchen too. The cheapest upgrade you can do.

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I am not buying any RE because of age and setback from lawsuit (why hassle renting and facing the court). I would rather use my cash into stocks as no one, except IRS, knows the cash flow & net worth.

It is just media attaching the Credit Suisse story from drop in the pre-market. Many times, it is media that links stories.