What I find amazing is 98% of CEOs expect a recession in the next 12-18 months. I don’t think that’s historically been an accurate indicator. If it was, then recessions wouldn’t have as big of impact, because everyone would be prepared. If anything, I think it’s a bullish indicator that sentiment has hit peak bearishness.
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I’m guessing this means Meta will get slaughtered.
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Not necessarily.
AH
MSFT 
GOOG
Cloud stocks
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Dips are bought. Daily volume is still low.
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Wow!
Mr Upstart has issued a bullish call. A first since Nov 2021 bearish call.
Stage 2 = a multi month to multi year uptrend.
Depend on your preference, price above 30-week EMA, 200-day SMA, 52-week EMA… is in stage 2.
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What happened to the market rally? SPY got very close to the 50-day and then boom.
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Beyond disappointing. I’m still up 200% because I bought it at its IPO day back in 2012. Now I’m just holding on hoping for a market rebound post-recession.
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Here is the issue, just I am telling for discussion purpose: (All are speculative members do not take any action based on this)
- All companies are seeing the effect of rate hikes, reduction in GOOG & META advertisement market, results lower income.
They will go cost cutting lay offs, reducing further demand which is what FED wants.
Now, Yield curve inverts based on market conditions, we will get into deep recession within 3-9 months.
Stock market - LIKELY - be halved by then.
In short, had you purchased 10000 shares of META at $37/$38, it was worth 3.8M by Nov-Dec 2021.
Hypothetically, if you have sold, you would pay tax 33% (23.5 FED+10% CA), balance you would have got $2.5M.
It is from 10x to 3x now.
Now, you are happy with $1.05M, still better than your bought price (of course) and we still have 3-9 months stock downturn (likely).
God Only knows where it is going to end…
Posted for discussion purpose.
Um… it only went back to 2015 level. You probably would have sold long before 2015 if you had bought it at the IPO price like I did. So I’m still doing better than you (someone with a trader mindset) hypothetically speaking. Let see how low it drops. I have a small position (about $500k) so I don’t really care where it ends up. Who knows, this thing could go back to all time high in a few years’ time assuming America didn’t go down the drain 
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No doubt, I would have sold it the same way I sold TSLA. However, even though it is not my money, my mind is not accepting from 10x ($380) to 3x level ($105).
However, it is not any more for me with individual stocks.
See this stock, in 6 months, it (AEHR) came from $7 to $21 which is almost like FB holding for decades. I knew this last few years (IIRC from 2020).
But no use for me as I moved to ETF.
I think if you couldn’t accept things falling from 10x to 3x, then going from 3x to 10x would also not be possible for you.
Nice guess, that won’t happen with QQQ and TQQQ kind of ETFs.
BTW: Falling from 10x to 3x is just mistake of the investor not knowing the company fundamentals and also what is happening with CEOs stocks. The simple truth is if big holding CEOs sells a stock, that crook knows the ATH (near future) of the company.
- META stocks sold my Mark Z
- TSLA stocks sold by EM
- PARA stocks sold by CEO ($3B) that brought the stock from $100 to current level.
Have you ever had any stock/etf investment that has gone 10x?
Personally, I’ve had AAPL, TSLA, META, NFLX all gone 10x and then more (AAPL & TSLA 100x and more).
That’s the difference between successful long-term buy/hold investing and the market-timing stuff you are trying to do. You’ve never had any legitimate success in this endeavor but kept critiquing people who have. How you are able to hold on to this misguided belief is beyond my understanding.
Faceripper yesterday:
My experience with stock is last 5-6 years only, they only chance I had was with TSLA, not in any others. The next one was AMC that I bought for $2 bulk quantity, but sold it as I want to move towards ETFs.
As you know investing and trading are different. You are doing investing, I agree. I am not against it, but you should have done proper investing model like WB (Every recession his stock value zooms). Any way, it is not going to benefit me - by any means you can follow any way you like!
I will come to that investing when I cross my threshold level where I am tired of swing trading. Only that time, you will see my deep fundamental research and finding the companies. Again, I will make my own program that will do fundamental financial research and find the best company for me.
Misguided Belief => That is your conviction, I can not help.
Beyond my understanding => True, Many do not understand it is possible. It is all mathematics & logic more complex programming than this equation
https://i.imgur.com/0CmfT20.png
BTW: This is not mine, some Ph.D person gave it to me for Leveraged ETFs. I read such equation and try to incorporate into my own system.
Same way, I wrote Black-scholes formula in my system to find out the best option that gives me better return with least risk. Multi-millions of code developed over last 6 years.