Few days before I calculated this. Looks like today it will be touching this point.
Gap filling of Jul 15.
We’re in the worst case. Inflation is still high and GDP is negative.
What I meant is stock market tumbled because of inflation, so when economy goes into recession which should lead to disinflation, stock market then should rally. That is we should welcome world wide recession with open arms. Unless for whatever happened, be it booming economy, recession, inflation, disinflation, … market tumbled.
What a difference a year makes.
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I think we need to hit the point in a recession where the fed starts to cut rates for the market to bottom.
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People re-entering the workforce in large numbers could help slowdown wage gains. I think we need to seriously re-evaluate the generosity of some benefit programs. We also need to eliminate the welfare cliff where a tiny amount of additional income eliminates tens of thousands in benefits.
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Everyone is freaking out over FedEx. But it seems like it’s more of their exposure to Asia and Europe that’s causing problems:
The company cited specific weakness in Asia as well as challenges to service in Europe for its underperformance in the first quarter. While these factors choked shipping volume, the company said operating expenses remained high. FedEx reported an adjusted operating income of $1.23 billion.
By Asia they really mean China. Its zero Covid is choking off the economy. Europe is facing a pretty grim winter and their inflation is even worse than ours. I’d be very curious to see FedEx’s US numbers.
Every media is assigning FedEx as reason for today’s drop, but that is not the truth !
Media always provide a convincing reason for market action.
Never believe the media !
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It is just time for things to go down, turn a bit green before Powell’s speech, have a mini rally & crash again during next month CPI report… will continue for few cycles and we may be lucky to have christmas rally
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More on FedEx:
It seems FedEx is doing poorly because of its own issues. I have been seeing people trying to sell their FedEx routes for a year or two now. FedEx also has some run-ins with Amazon and most of Amazon’s business is now split between Amazon’s own logistics arm, UPS and USPS.
OUCH! On 6/29 Cramer said this:
Jim Cramer predicts FedEx will have a great year amid strong e-commerce sales
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~50% of S&P 500 revenue is from outside the US. When 50% of your revenue base is struggling, it’s goin got be difficult to post good numbers.
Also, the US can’t be doing that well. Just look at the guidance from retailers. They are having to discounting heavily to actually sell anything. It’s killing margins, and they still have too much inventory. If you think about it, inflation is ~8% and GDP is -1%. That means overall there’s ~9% less stuff being sold.
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No, that’s not how GDP is measured. The quoted numbers are real, ie ex-inflation.
The 2-quarter GDP decline thing is also pretty contested. Because measured in another way, from the income side, it still shows expansion. At worst we have some flattish number and the economy is just treading water. Again, that’s real, not nominal.
You don’t see a recession with that strong a job growth. Data from credit card companies also show US customers are still spending. If we are in a recession right now it’ll be a pretty weird one.
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You are on a campaign to ramp in this view 
You’re right. It was real GDP that was negative. The economy is definitely limping along. People can’t keep adding debt to maintain spending forever.
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This is 100% Truth. I was believing media madly before. After algorithmic work, I realized how media passing/attaching wrong information to public. Everything media presenting outside world is for their circulation and publicity. Some truths are there, but mostly wrong information.
You may not like it, but investors who read this book Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners will understand the truth.
Book review says “Knowledge and information about the stock market are vital tools for investors as they shape their strategies and portfolios. Professor Harris has written an extraordinary book detailing the complex workings of modern equity markets. This book provides a wealth of institutional detail, and an integrated framework for understanding how markets actually work.”
Interested people search for pdf copy in google and read (very dry reading ! Not a simple book)
I bought this book two years before, read it few chapters and understood the issues with media information. For example, few days before (Sep 11th) I wrote a new function (my own algorithmic) to find how much SPY or QQQ can reach and found it 385 and 285. At that time, FedEx results were not there, but market is going to that level easily.
Market is going on pre-planned execution, nothing to do with FedEx results !
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Just sharing someone else fundamentals. Before buy & hold or sell such analysis essential.
BTW: Posted this for information purpose only to read such free analysis ( worth than News media analysts) . I do not buy or sell PLTR
I don’t think 0.75 vs. 1.0% actually makes a different or moves the market. It’ll depend on the commentary around future rate hikes. It’s 100% about the future hikes vs. current expectations.
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