Schwarzman Sees ‘Big V’ Economic Rebound in Next Few Months
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/schwarzman-sees-big-v-economic-174103217.html
If you own SPY or one of the other capital weighted S&P 500 funds this group of stocks makes up close to 15% of your holdings.
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So where is the next stop? SPY 4000? SPY 5000?
Depends on how big is Trump’s next stimulus? Guy is desperate. Wants to buy his way to the next presidency.
There is no consensus on stimulus between dems and reps. Traditionally, the spending and revenue bills originate in the house of reps. If a stimulus bill has to come before the election, it must originate in the house of representatives, not from President or Senate. I do not see how Trump can use stimulus to buy an election if the other party controls the house of rep.
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@hanera, stopped almost showing all my proof, but this year extra-ordinary YTD is 352% (mainly with spy puts/calls etc). Nowadays, I do not buy calls/puts, but stabilized with UPRO & TQQQ.
I am just following 95% cash on my trades with S&P ETFs, but not on individual stocks. I just hold 5% on buy and hold stocks with very small stake.
Note: All my trades are based on 3 years long programming efforts. I maintain my own server, every 5 minutes updates the stock data, run data analysis and providing me the results. This is my own creation, and enhancing it now and then. I do not have any other reliable system that I can depend on.
Sometime, it gives incredible hint and sometime it gives me wrong way ! For example: On Jun 5th, it gave me sell (I sold) and June 11th it told me buy and it is giving second time buy today.
Even though I am skeptical how the market goes next few days, I blindly trust (even if it is mistake) as it has correcting mechanism in next few days.
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I think I miss the action while watching TV serials from Mar-May.
Haha, exactly what I thought would happen. Once you reach certain $ value, you lower your bet.
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All I understood so far is the news/media splashing headlines are not right and are not real reason.
Market goes UP and Down on its own, but news/media is attaching a nice story. Even the headlines are running with some programs.
If you closely watch, you will see these headlines in a day.
Dow plunges 900 points as Florida sees record jump in Coronavirus cases.
Dow plunges 700 points as Florida sees record jump in Coronavirus cases.
Dow plunges 500 points as Florida sees record jump in Coronavirus cases.
Dow plunges 200 points as Florida sees record jump in Coronavirus cases.
Experienced investors/traders realize that. Sometimes real reason will only be known after a long time. For example, when iPhone was first announced, AAPL tumbled! Yes, tumbled, to the shock of many AAPL investors. Later we realize was due to option irregularities which again was WRONG. The real reason was the fear of SJ being booted out because of the irregularities. Once it was confirmed he won’t be, AAPL rocketed 4x in 18 months.
Selected WFH/ cloud stocks like ZS, SPLK, HUBS are roaring in the sea of red. So is broad market pull back or re-start of bear market?
Correction: Most WFH/ cloud stocks continue to moon. Panic sold SHOP at lower price than currently trading 
Market always seem to go down on Thurs when I go to Costco and re-bounced when I’m back. Tradeable?
Market turns bullish 
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Shopify’s bubble put in perspective. It puts Amazon’s crazy evaluation to shame at the height of the dot-com bubble.
Amazon vs Shopify in its early years since IPO:
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Jim Cramer is worried.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/jim-cramer-2-worrisome-signs-i-see-with-this-market-15355017?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
Price targets and promoters. Two worrisome signs. You get enough of them and you know the party’s almost over.
I worry that they just go up and up for the same reasons: price-tag boost upon price-tag boost.
The analysts who have not yet had a chance to lift their price targets will concoct some reason to do so and the buyers will pile in again ON THE SAME ESTIMATES! To some that’s price -to-earnings multiple expansion but to me that’s just greater fool theory.
When will the market reverse? Early shorts would be steamrolled.
Reversal starts when investors run out of money to buy and everyone waiting is in. The race to the downside will begin when those who entered early will want to take profit (they are not the buy and hold types).
This news got overshadowed by the dividend restriction. Taken on face value it adds fuel to the bull run. Banks can now resume their proprietary trading in more risky assets like derivatives. The CNN article I read said it can potentially free up 40B. Not a lot but it depends on the velocity of their trading. Anyway still mildly bullish for the overall market.