Sell!
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Gold and silver are the real stories. Doesnât bode well.
TQQQ hits ATH helps by AAPL. However, Iâd closed all TQQQ position 
I just bought a put spread on CVNA. Letâs see what happens in the next month.
Kicking myself for not buying a put spread on FSLY. I was so close - had all the numbers lined up before earnings and didnât hit Place Order.
Big tech stocks could fall sharply if thereâs a vaccine
Hmm⌠is not given that a vaccine would be developed eventually?
While a vaccine could boost the United States economy, it could also spur investors to dump the current market leaders that have helped propel Wall Street higher â most notably the FAANG+ Microsoft cabal of big tech stocks.
Look like I have cut off TQQQ, UPRO and SOXL too early. Still trading higher than my sold price.
Bot some AYX and FSLY, added to the no DD blindly buy hot stock portfolio. Surprisingly, portfolio worth declines only 1% 
- Diversification works 
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I sold early too, this is what false positive ! Market takes all the stocks at ATH, then drop later. It is really hard to predict the future. Last month, I gain 14.5%,now zero gain for last 7 days, missed the nice run up ! Waiting for opportunity.
As Keynes said in the 1930s: âMarkets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.â ⌠You can be right that a market or sector is overvalued but wrong on the timing. Thatâs essentially what economist John Maynard Keynes meant when he said, âThe market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.â
BTW: This is not a stock nor financial advice !
Yes, spreading the risk, I stay with UPRO or VOO.
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Opportunity is here but may have to wait a little longer.
We are back to the tariff tension before the deal is signed. Today, Trump said something, stock market tumbles. Tomorrow, Trump says something else, stock market rallies. Probably is like this till Nov election. 3 months of whipsaw.
A snippet of a much longer piece on the macro picture from Howard Marks at Oaktree Capital.
âAs for the stock market, several points are advanced to justify the current level âwhich is so mystifying to value investors âand assert its bright future:The first is that many investors have underestimated the impact of low rates on valuations. In short, what should the stock market yield? Not its dividend yield, but its earnings yield: the ratio of earnings to price (that is, p/e inverted). Simplistically, when Treasurys yield less than 1% and you add in the traditional equity premium, perhaps the earnings yield should be 4%. That yield of 4/100 suggests a p/e ratio (the inverse) of 100/4, or 25. Thus the S&P 500 shouldnât trade at its traditional 16 times earnings, but roughly 50% higher.Even that, itâs said, understates the case, because it ignores the fact that companiesâ earnings grow, while bond interest doesnât. Thus the demanded return on stocks shouldnât be (bond yield + equity premium)as suggested above, but rather (bond yield + equity premium -growth). If the earnings on the S&P 500 will grow to eternity at 2%per year, for example, the right earnings yield isnât 4%, but 2% (for a p/e ratio of 50). And, mathematically, for a company whose growth rate exceeds the sum of the bond yield and the equity premium, the right p/e ratio is infinity. On that basis, stocks may have a long way to go.â
Not sure this link to the whole thing will work here.
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I finally convinced my mom to stop doing CDs, bonds, and annuities. She has complained for years the interest rates are so low. The latest round of rate cuts back finally convinced her. Sheâs going to do dividend stocks instead. Iâm pretty sure this means weâve hit a market peak. That or else the market could run much higher as more people her age do the same.
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Or in short, donât fight the Fed.
Where was Marks in March? Now that the bull run is extended and looks a bit tired, heâs saying itâs rational to buy?
Trump tweet fluctuations are temporary.
Frankly, market behaves on its own way, to maximize the profit of banks, big funds as they are bigger players.
It is well known market will fluctuate until election as there are lot of uncertainty. Just missed the upro 6% growth, but market was volatile, better to be safe than regret.
Donât know; the link is from an accounting firm which helped settle my momâs estate.
I doubt that back in March anyone could have foreseen the global gross over-reaction to CV-19. BTW I donât agree with much of the authorâs analysis with regard to the virus. We were never going to just crush it no matter what we did and an effetive vaccine is unlikely.
I never buy bonds or CDs. RE and stocks only. I am 66. I doubt I will ever buy bonds or CDs. Plenty of value stocks with good dividends. But for cash flow RE is best.
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If true, UPRO 
would appreciate faster than TQQQ and SOXL
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Do you sense that market might be changing? Would you consider going forward, XLI is better than VOO?
I do not look at multiple stocks, nor multiple sectors. My main idea is to win over S&P over a good percentage point as long as bull run is there. S&P is for diversity purpose, Nasdaq is high growth purpose with 100 stocks behind the scene.
When bear time comes, I will but strong companies such as top 10 US companies, hold for long. As I showed by PM, I even purchased AAPL, TSLA during the peak down days Mar 16 and Mar 25th, but sold way up. But, next time, I will hold them without trading.
My logic is tailored with ^GSPC mostly and to some extend ^IXIC, and will not fit for any other sectors such as XLI and SOXLâŚetc. Last week, market gave false positive and missed 5%-6% growth on UPRO.
I always stay away from market when confused, but choose only UPRO or SPXU when I get clarity.
But, I stick to the same ground and look for maximum gain (Focusing S&P & Nasdaq as a whole).
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