Today Market

Anything green is better. Why didn’t you buy AAPL calls, it jumped from $105 to $111.7, your green would have been better with AAPL calls…? Since you know AAPL better, use AAPL calls when it deep dipped.

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Another article to convince retail traders to sell :yawning_face:

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Hah, I personally entered a small AAPL put position toward the close. Will have to see the price action tomorrow for confirmation (and bigger bet). Otherwise, I’m very cautious to enter a new long position. Just riding the existing ones I like.

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Oh, my current short/mid term bearish thesis is pretty simple but could be very wrong.

  • Dollar (DXY) getting stronger due to Europe trouble
  • PMs (gold, etc) basically broke a huge support line (maybe it’s a fakeout but will know in a few days)
  • Slim chance congress passes stimulus bill this year. The longer it lasts, the worse the domino effect.

I do think after the election, things will resolve itself and we go back to bullish momentum because Trump or Biden will pass a big stimulus bill.

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I won big buying on Friday Apple Amazon and Microsoft

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:scream:, we think alike :cold_face:

Probably no new low, just basing action.

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You made it nicely yesterday !

I differ here, whoever comes it takes their full term 4 years to bring back the economy.

Covid-19 lay offs so far 13 million (from 42M) jobless will have ripple effect across the world. New government (no matter Trump or Biden) must pass stimulus, and stocks will go down in 4 or 5 cycles before real recovery comes.

When real economy is affected, stocks went up - with vested interest with FED money - now correcting to GDP level.

Of course, in this process, it will over correct and jump up with mean reversion

This is stock recession - started on Sep 2, 2020

Broad based or tech stocks only?

It must be broad based, not only tech stocks, but entire market.

Haha yeah, got lucky. Scaled up in the morning with AAPL puts+shorts and SPY puts as well so it was a good day. Sold half after 100%+ gain so just running with profit for options. Also added ZM short close to the top but that’s a dangerous play IMO but rally seemed too silly. The biggest one was /NG (natural gas) as I ended up backing up the truck on that one last night. We’ll see what tomorrow holds but it stopped exactly at the support. :face_with_monocle:

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What are you trading? weekly options?

I think we’re in a recession, don’t get me wrong. The market is just fueling on sugar for now. I do think there will be another ramp up after a big stimulus bill is passed and it might come with a sector rotation away from the tech. Probably won’t last long though.

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Yes, for AAPL and SPY. I use future for /NG.

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On 10/9/2007, S&P was 1565, went down, then up and down…like that to 676.53 on 03/09/2009
Based on 2007-2009, I am expecting multiple corrections leading to 50%-60% total correction.
I see the similar wave will happen here too. This 13.5 Million jobless has to come down to lowest and turn back up after a bottom.

It went in 4 or 5 cycles (UPs and Downs).

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Dotcom has similar behavior :roll_eyes: I guess you want to say is not going to be a very fast decline with hardly any bull traps like Feb-Mar. Is going to be a treacherous gradual decline with many seemingly reversal bull traps.

Time for a long vacation, can’t watch TV serials (watched all the good ones), read books? programming?

Have you watched the movie social network? Or the Steve Jobs biopic? Both on Netflix now.

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Yes, we will not have fast decline as Government (& FED) time to time pump money (or change policy) to boost economy. Depending on quarterly results, drop and growth will be settling, but overall market will go down.

If I guess, It is going to be replica of Y2K and year 2008 downturn, this one 2020-COVID-Down turn.

At the end, really valued companies stay ahead and all hypes will go off to bottom.

That is the question I have been asking. Which medcap are next AAPL AMZN :no_mouth:

My preferences may not be suitable to others. I may buy TSLA,TDOC,SNOW,STNE,DOCU,PYPL,RUN, ENPH, LYFT (or UBER),BYND,AAPL,AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MSFT. There may be few others.

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https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/jim-cramer-we-re-feeling-the-wrath-of-the-sellers-and-it-s-about-time-15438150

Given the high-quality nature of the companies I just mentioned and how they have stocks that should fair well both in a pandemic and in a slowdown, you can leg into them if you don’t own any although, if you are on margin or have no cash, you are still not too late to sell.

Got cash, scale into stocks with good fundamentals.
On margin, sell to zero margin, ideally raise some cash.

We tend not to bottom until all of those largely new investors lose a considerable amount not just of what they made but of the capital themselves.

So monitor RHers, need most of them to lose their :tshirt: and :jeans:

Meanwhile watch random TV serials or trade SQQQ/ SPXU or puts.