Not just CEOs, top leadership They get huge amount of RSUs annually. Is one reason why I am against buyback, prefer dividends if companies want to return capital.
Beginning of a meltdown or BTFD opportunity?
I feel the same ! But never know until we end up in success !!!
Just noticed AMZN is below its 200-day, and FB is barely above. Both have been pretty weak in the last 12mo.
U.S. manufacturing activity tumbled in September to its lowest level in a decade, according to the Institute for Supply Management index.
The deterioration in U.S. business conditions came as trade tensions between China and the United States wreak havoc on global supply chains and put a dent in business spending.
But President Trump instead is putting the blame on the federal reserve - saying Fed policy - not trade policy - is hurting U.S. manufacturers.
Later Wednesday morning, the World Trade Organization ruled in favor of the U.S. in its pursuit of additional tariffs against E.U. goods over what the Trump administration says is illegal subsidies granted to Airbus. As much as $7.5 billion of imports could be subject to fresh tariffs.
A private-sector employment report from Automatic Data Processing showed that a modest 135,000 jobs were created in September, another sign that hiring is slowing along with the broader U.S. economy. That missed the Econoday consensus forecast of 152,000 jobs. The average monthly job growth for the past three months also fell to 145,000 from 214,000 for the same time period last year.
Unemployment is so low that I think hiring has to slow down. We should have been developing a plan to upskill people years ago. That way people in the labor force can get better jobs, and people out of the labor force can backfill them. Now the labor force participation rate needs to increase for the economy to grow.
I thought that sign was hilarious. One, it’s a sex shop and they are hiring “all positions”. Two, they are offering signing bonuses for retail positions. The ice cream shop near it is a “no tip” place. Their sign says they start employees at $18/hr.
Everything is still pretty high. Nothing to buy yet.
Retail and sex (store) workers don’t need much training. The slump is in the manufacturing sector, which is much more exposed to trade and external influence than domestic consumer spending.
Manufacturing is about 13% of US GDP. If domestic consumers held up we may pull through. But the rust belt region will feel the pinch, which ironically was where Trump got his lucky break. Manufacturing may not matter that much to our economy as a whole, but it has outsized political influence.
A slump in manufacture output not jobs or employment. Manufacturing output is going to peak without more qualified workers for companies to hire.
I also wonder how much is the Boeing 737 Max. Aircraft exports are 8.4% of all exports plus all the production of domestic units. The ripple effect of that down thru all the parts and materials suppliers has to be huge.
You don’t think our trade policy has anything to do with the slump?
I bet it has very little to do with it. Exports are a small percent and manufacturing exports are a small percent of that small percent. Exports would have to dramatically move to cause a measurable move in manufacturing numbers.
July is the most recent numbers they have here.
July exports to China only fell 3.3%. That’s not going to move the needle.
Tomorrow’s services number is far more important, since it covers 85% of the economy.
I forgot about GM strike.
“The decline in manufacturing has been ongoing since the beginning of the trade war and has been exacerbated by the Boeing 737 Max problems and now the GM strike.”
Long financials
I was thinking about this more. The GDP is the sum of output of people in the work force. That means the two ways to improve GDP are improve output per worker or increase the number of workers. We are hitting limits of worker productivity without significant new technology breakthroughs. We are hitting limits in labor force participation. GDP growth will be low until one of those two things changes.
If we are serious about GDP growth, then we need policies to encourage an increase in labor force participation.
I think labor force participation will drop further as Boomers retire by the millions. Nearly all will be retired in 20 years. That’s 3-4 million a year.
That’s true although the generation now entering the work force is bigger than the boomers.
Invest in RV manufacturing companies. All my old fart friends are buying RVs. I don’t get it. Spend a ton of money on a depreciating asset so you can spend your time staying in trailer parks. I am wasting my time and money on wine making. My newest hobby. Cheaper than an RV and more satisfying.
Only you and @harriet understand financial industry. No for me. My C investment is still reeling in red!