Today Market

An easier way to see is sum of income of people + profit of business + rent income.

Rent control reduces GDP :open_mouth:
Tariff war reduces profit of business hence reduces GDP :roll_eyes:
Of course increase number of people working and their pay increase GDP.

Calculated Risk has been beating the drum that US prime age population has turned the corner and started increasing again. That means more workers and more consumption too. That is a strong tailwind for US GDP growth. All we need are more sensible macro policies than Trump’s erratic mumbo jumbo.

The best way to increase labor participation is higher wages and more benefits. It’s not rocket science. Wage growth has been anemic although it has finally started rising again, although at a very modest pace. Female participation has been stagnant because we don’t offer much support for women raising kids.

A study indicates that females take more benefits than contributing to GDP till the age of 40 and shortly after again take more than give. Recommending even more benefits for females mean making the situation worse. Males contributes more from age 20 :slight_smile: and only go negative after age 80.

As a sit-at-home dad, do you think you have zero contribution to society raising your two kids?

Better benefits like free pre-schools and childcare help put more females back to work. Win-win for everyone involved.

Just messing with you. Of course is win-win. Those females that take more benefits than contributing are non-working single mothers. Enough to tilt the statistics.

A weaker than expected number increased expectations for a rate cut which caused big reversal today.

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Today is a Green Day :laughing: Cloud and semi rock :man_dancing:

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First Republic Bank reimburses all ATM fees - even outrageous ones in foreign countries.

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Schwab Bank too. :+1:

In other words, people’s emotions don’t match reality. Shocking!

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Wall Street rallies on trade deal hopes; Apple hits record high
Wall Street rose for the third straight session on Friday, as investors expected top-level trade talks between the United States and China to result in a partial trade deal and delay planned U.S. tariff increases.

Read in Reuters: Wall Street jumps but ends off highs after partial trade deal

Partial deal? Both sides need a small win?

United States and China are said to reach a partial trade deal

Melt up?

Neither Barrons, nor CNBC (they have similar post) knows in detail why Berkshire keeps such a massive cash in UST.

They just create a sensational news with an exit of 10 Million investor to comment 500 Billion funds.

For best return, esp big funds like this, Kelly (John) Criterion is used for asset allocation.

Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly_Jr) gives Over the decades, John Kelly’s scientific formula has become a part of mainstream investment theory and the most prominent users, well-known and successful billionaire investors Warren Buffett, Bill Gross and Jim Simons use Kelly methods. Warren Buffett met Thorp the first time in 1968. It’s said that Buffett uses a form of the Kelly criterion in deciding how much money to put into various holdings.

For light reading :
Note=> " So, in this theoretical portfolio with your historic estimate of odds and edge, aim for 79% stocks and 21% bonds. The standard disclaimer applies : these numbers are guesses, so adjust your expectations accordingly."

Deep reading, complex

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Melting up

What to do with my largest position?

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Rescue the cloud stocks :star_struck:

BAC is your largest position?

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Mr Market slaughtered Cloud and SAAS stocks.

Whenever they get slaughtered, it seems to last a few days and is a buying opportunity.

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