Today Market

Individual stocks have that particular stock’s volatility/Beta built in.

Hence I’m looking at S&P.

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Expanding triangle :grinning: While it breaks through the 50-day SMA, it is stopped by the horizontal support in place since Dec/Jan. So breakout or breakdown?

S&P ATH = 3393.52
10% decline = 3054.17, about where 200-day SMA is.
Currently is within the consolidation territory, less than 10% decline.

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What does the horizontal line represent?

I have not made efforts to understand TA. So, not sure which way it will go :expressionless:

Clearly there is lots of fear out there. Can it get worse, probably. People will be watching how things spread and how China comes back online.

The public isn’t an expert at much, so most of the times we are at the whim of what we are told and can believe.

For my own sanity I try to think with a longer time horizon.

Technicians refer to it as support. Is a place where buyers (more than sellers) come in to BUY! driving price back up. However, if visited more than 3 times, … becomes inconclusive because buyers start to waver as to whether to buy since it is visited so many times, psychology :slight_smile: The more times it got visited, the more likely it would break through. As you can see, this is the fourth time! So can’t tell what would happen now. If it is third time, I still dare to say it would reverse and go back up.

When there is extreme fear in the market, you are supposed to buy! Easy to say right? How to conquer the fear.

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You seem to have a disciplined approach to investing. The fact that you feel fearful says enough. You started fanning the flames at the start of the weekend, then you felt even more fearful today.

If the virus is really that bad, well there’s nothing I can really do.

Not sure what are you implying? Can you be more direct?

Are you referring to Covid-19 thread? I was posting relevant issues as I read them. Or are you referring the part on buying supplies? I was half-joking as I read many people are stocking them up especially facial masks.

Sorry, it’s a good sign (for the stock market) you are scared. There is only so much you can control, trying to control your personal health and safety is good and normal, but a lot of it is also out of your hands.

I didn’t mean to make it sound like you are an alarmist. If you wait to be “prepared” when other people tell you to, it’s already too late.

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Facial masks - I didn’t know that people are stocking up till one of my Singaporean friend came to visit me in Austin. She is a Christian, she told me can only buy 4 in Singapore, she tries to buy online - out of stock, tries to buy in SV (her first stop) - out of stock everywhere, and when she is here in Austin, she thought sure have. I think so too, then went to many pharmacies, big boxes and some obscure nooks, still don’t have. Incredible. She just want to buy some for those needy in Singapore and China, can’t buy in physical stores, so buy from third party online at $2 per mask - hopefully is not fraud. According to her, Singaporeans being the kiasu (colloquial word for FOMO and err on the safe side and go to the extreme) type, stock up every thing (medical supplies, daily uses stuff, water, canned food).

Other than facial masks, other stuff are easily available in Austin. As for wearing masks, only seen some wear them in China town. Elsewhere, nobody wear masks.

Getting close to extreme fear.

WS analysts say BTFD, believe them?

Jim Cramer says STFR.

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We may be close to the height of panic.

Fear us when someone else has the coronavirus. Panic is when you have it. Panic in the US is a long way off.

Panic in the financial market is different from panic in the streets. We will never have a panic in the streets. We have how many cases? 30? 40?

Over the last few months we kept hearing pundits predicting the bull market will just drop dead any minute. This rally is one of the most hated. Everybody has one foot at the door. As shown in the chart we may not be that far from the peak.

Peak of fear or market? Fear peak = BTFD. Market peak = STFR.

Markets peak when there’s irrational exuberance.

Plenty more fear to come. Even the Chinese Shanghai index is still too high. Italy is now panicked with many cases. This scary ride will last a lot longer and will there be a lot more financial panic to come.

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Peak of fear of course. Thought it’s clear from context.

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There are two viruses to worry about. The one that could kill you is not as dangerous as the Bernie virus. The news media has anointed Bernie the Democratic nominee. They are determined to turn America socialist. And America’s children are enamored with this pied piper of insanity. This one two punch could easily cause a correction or worse. The Democratic monied power structure is scared to death, thinking Bernie will loose to Trump. But the scariest scenario is he actually beats Trump. This would guarantee a depression within two years.

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You are assuming congress would go along with Bernie’s agenda, assuming first Bernie got the mom, and second he beats Trump. That’s far from certain. Another gloom and doom scaremongering.

But if all of these three things actually happened at the same time? I am down for some experimentation!