Today Market

My wife just got a text from her friends at Stanford that they just confirmed 11 cases at Stanford hospital. i guess the case count is climbing

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Panic is fine, but the real conflict is between loss aversion and risk aversion. Sometime it is good to avoid risk, and sometime it is good to avoid loss. So, an absolute blanket statement that Panic is good is not very meaningful until entire context is known. Some time people make bad choices trying to avert loss or risk, depending upon their perception of what is a bigger threat.

US considering anti-dumping laws on Russian and Saudi Oil.

Xi admitted mistake in the initial response to Covid-19. Time for Trump to do so.

No more tariff war? Or it means putting tariff on oil imports from Russia and Saudi Arabia? Do USA import oil from them?

We keep alternating big down and big up days. Will that repeat tomorrow?

Dumping duty is a kind of tariff imposed when a supplier sells below fair cost.

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Perfectly for me if companies want to sell below cost :slight_smile:

Dumping duty is to protect domestic industry from the intent, not cost. The intent here of Saudi and Russians companies seems to be to destroy US shale companies.

I know that. If dumping is illegal, anti-dumping should be too since it is essentially subsidizing an inefficient operation. Cost of fracking is higher than traditional oil extraction, not sure when compare to deep water extraction. Btw, some1 here said cost of extraction in Saudi is only $3 per barrel - didn’t verify.

Not surprising, there’s no agreement on how to stimulate the economy. Lots of ideas are being floated but none would get a majority support in the house or senate. Ideas range from no payroll tax (employee and employer half) for 90 days or even until the election. Paid sick leave for people impacted (no clue how we’d quickly implement that). I think by the time people got paid sick leave money they’d be back to work unless companies pay it immediately and get reimbursed by the government after the fact. There’s talk of expanding unemployment and food stamp benefits. There’s also concern about childcare costs if schools close.

This is so complex to the point it’d just be easier to give every household a dollar amount per week while it lasts. Checks could be mailed to addresses based on tax returns.

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What is happening is not panic, but preventive action.

Work places have common facilities, such as cafeteria, drinking water, toilets…etc where groups can come and use, chances of spreading unknown covad-19 is easy.

Companies can not maintain sterilize every hour, but once a day only possible.

If you ask the employees/contractors work from home, this is equal to self quarantine.

This is safe for workers as well as companies. If not, you can expect Class action lawsuits later on companies ! Now, any loss of revenue, companies can claim with insurance even (if they have coverage).

My old company (now no more) got insurance money when 9/11 attack resulted company wide closure for 7 days.

AH volume for VOO seems really high. Already 3M. This is way higher then what I typically see. Anyone know what’s going on?

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As expected after hours are positive, tomorrow market recovers. Rinse and repeat going on.
BTW: Market will not change, very volatile, but still more blood bath that FED has to cry stopping this fall !

The only thing you can be certain of is that by the time a plan is negotiated, agreed to, signed off, implemented and has had time to take effect the crisis will be long over.

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Cramer is panicky… bottom soon?

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I would like to think so. Years ago he used to be a good contrarian indicator. Buy when he says sell and vice versa. But I don’t follow him and i think @hanera likes him?

This is purely my scary guess, no backup data:

First and foremost, some company has to declare medicine is there for Coronovirus and FDA approved ! Until then, we have issues with economy. Schools/colleges started closing one by one. Big companies, like barley & Morgan Stanley…and many Wall street companies are working remotely. We do not see any end.

We are still in volatile stage, daily 5% up or down, but will take easily further down and settle between 30% - 50% range. It may look strange now, unbelievable, but very likely happen.

Tourism, gambling (macau/Las vegas), restaurants, hotels, airlines, oil sector are worst affected.
Domino impact to other sectors, such as real estate and car industry, will follow, Job loss will occur.

Panic is complete. Even Trump. Let’s see what he says today.

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The Europe travel ban doesn’t make sense. And it will cripple the global economy.

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