Today Market

Defense is only 18% of the budget. Go back to the 1950’s and it was 60%.
The only way to meaningfully reduce it further is for the US to stop defending Europe 75 years after the end of WW II and 25 years after the end of the Soviet Union. I’m fine with that - Russia has a GDP less than one tenth that of the EU so if they think it’s a big threat they can build their own war machine. God knows they need the stimulus more than we do. But there is no support for this on either side of the aisle. Trump submitted a budget which cuts military spending in real terms and the Dems are having none of it.

3 Likes

I agree. We should stop being the world’s cop and injecting billions of dollars into the economy of every foreign land we have a base in

1 Like

HFTs are aggressive with market ! One day UP and another day DOWN !

1 Like

will XLE likely drop further or go up from here on?

They are skimming and washing out all the retail investors. I don’t think markets will go up in a sustained basis till all the retail investors are blown up

2 Likes

Warren Buffett reacts to the stock market rout, oil crash amid the coronavirus outbreak

“If you stick around long enough, you’ll see everything in markets,” Buffett said. “And it may have taken me to 89 years of age to throw this one into the experience, but the markets, if you have to be open second by second, they react to news in a big time way.”

I am younger but already experience a few market crashes, Dotcom (2000), Financial Crisis (2007) and now, Covid-19 (2020). AAPL has a few more :grimacing: specifically. Total 7 times of 20%+ declines since I owned it from 1997.

In an interview with the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B) CEO in his Omaha headquarters on Tuesday, Buffett called the recent market shock “a one-two punch” with coronavirus and the plunge in oil prices, but indicated that the October crash of 1987 which he called a “financial panic” was worse.

I have no stakes in 1987, just started working, I can see many office colleagues panicking. Condos are dirt cheap yet I barely afford an entry one - bought a tiny condo, pathetic :blush: First primary :wink:

As for the market collapse in the the fall of 2008, he said that was “much more scary, by far, than anything that happened yesterday [Monday of this week.]”

Agree. This one doesn’t feel scary at all. AAPL didn’t even decline to the end of Feb low, and way higher than the Dec 2018 low. I really don’t care about any stocks or market other than AAPL :innocent: VOO develops a bullish divergence in the daily chart so added some to my wife’s IRA - can add two more times. No divergence in the weekly chart, might happen. Anyhoo, VOO is above the 200-week SMA which mean multi-year bull trend is still intact, surprise :+1:

IMHO, other than no known vaccine and no known cure, Covid-19 is behaving so far like a severe flu. Did we over-react? Or better to err on the safe side since it is new?

I nibbled on some RSP this morning. It has a history of getting hit harder in downturns and coming back stronger than the more standard capital weighted funds.

What is RSP? Is it Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP)?

That brings good question. What to buy if we expect bottom is near and market should start ranging or even creeping up?

Yeah - an equal weight index fund. Look at a long range chart and see how it does especially through panics.
It just seems low risk to me. With yields on cash going towards zero dividends could be cut 80% and you’d still be better off riding it out. Unless you think you’re smart enough to call an exact bottom.
My buy signal this morning was Manch saying God doesn’t even have the power to save us :slight_smile:

2 Likes

God has a plan. Unless he/she wants us extinct, we would recover from it “stronger”? Please don’t ask me why we need to experience such ups and downs. Fun? God also change his/her mind and we don’t know why - Old Testament, God behaves one way. New Testament, God behaves another way. In the future, might have a newer Testament, God behaves in yet another way. We have no control :slight_smile: just live on.

I kind of like Old Testament God. Like Lou Grant on Mary Tyler Moore or Quincy - both got wrecked in the later seasons :slight_smile:
I’m rained in for the next so days so I’m finishing “Shadow Divers.” Some answers to these questions from a more secular point of view.

Do nothing. Hunker down in the desert until the hot weather kills the virus.

“Panic” is why humans have survived as a species. When your hands get burned you don’t stand there theorizing. You just instinctively take away your hands.

China panicked in the corona crisis and seems to have things under control now. Locking down half the population and putting their economy in deep freeze is definitely panicking.

If the US government keeps chewing gums and lectures people it’s stupid to panic I don’t see it as a good sign. The only upside is that there will definitely be a regime change come November.

1 Like

Lecture us on Fight or Flight? All mammals have this Fight or Flight instinct. Don’t know about other animals. When facing an unknown threat, you either fight if you think you can win or force by opponents/ situation or flight (run if you think you can outrun or put on a brave front and walk away slowly).

:+1:

Time to do what people want to see. Period.

“Panic” is why humans have survived as a species

That’s the line of the day. Thank You Manch,

Panic is Costco selling out of toilet paper while having tons of soap. The one recommendation was to wash your hands often with soap. Panic is irrational behavior that doesn’t help make someone safer.

1 Like

Panic works when you’re being chased by a wild animal or when Og has caught you boning his GF. Those are the kind of scenarios under which the instinct evolved. Not very useful today.

1 Like

Panic is shutting down Harvard and Stanford. I thought they are supposed to be smart.

3 Likes

Panic by definition means over reaction. You can laugh at people stocking toilet paper. I did too. But it’s exactly this crisis mode thinking that gets us through a crisis. Will people get things 100% right? Of course not. But these “irrational” people will have higher chance of survival than folks who chew gums and sneer on the side.

Panicky @manch. I didn’t rush to buy any toilet paper, have already stocked up before the crisis because Costco gave discount on Charmin toilet paper about 2 months ago. I oblige to stock up water (3 cartoons :slight_smile: ) and green teas :grinning: containing tons of vitamins. Also stock up on rice and noodles :innocent: Didn’t stock up canned food - don’t like them. Water and rice/noodles can last me 6-12 months.