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1496

There are plenty of haters of TSLA here, please ignore the following updates.

Even for TSLA cult players, if you have some questions, do not ask here, but find out the answer that helps you !

After this page, now I understand why TSLA skyrocketed last time ! WQJ is great by being blind buyer!!

Here is the analysis I made in last 24 hours whether to lease Model 3 or buy Model 3 in next 3 months, finally decided to lease model 3.

During this process, I see the fundamental difference between GM Bolt and Model 3 (and other TSLA cars).

My friend recently (within last 7 days) leased 3 years GM bolt with down payment $2000 and $400/month for 10000 miles/year lease. It does not have leather seat which is normally $2500 cash sale value, but have security convenience package which is equal to Tesla base autopilot. Assuming same lease interest rate and same residual value between bolt and model 3, I just ignore that value

Bolt costs 2000 (down) + 36*400 (lease) + 2500 (leather) = 18900 + residual cost

Model 3 lease cost from website
Model 3 costs 2000 (down) + 36 * 474 (lease) + 0 (leather default) = 19064 + residual value

The difference is $164 which is very minor difference.

When costs are almost same, model 3 has superior performance as given below:

Model 3 uses computer like screens which may costs $2500 additionally, but it is benefit to consumer. Comparing both, we have superior performance (max speed 145 mph while bolt 92), almost equal range model three is 250 miles/charge while bolt is 259 miles/charge.

For the same (similar costs) Model 3 is far better than GM bolt, which is why I choose model 3 for my next lease car !

For a bolt car sales, if GM makes 15% ($2835 on lease value), model 3 makes same 15% + dealer charges (as there is no middle man) almost 10%. = ($2835+$1890) = $4725

Every base car sales TSLA has $4725 over other competitors.

This is base car comparison, but when it comes to autopilot full function (which is attractive self driving) they charge $7000, but it is software where profit margin is too high, easily $2500 per license.

With multiple models (3,S, X, Y) long range, short range, full function autopilot…etc Tesla mint money crazily. They do not pay dividend to share holder, but the money is used for growth.

By all means, I will soon add TSLA with price around current range (as I have no shares now, sold at $768).

Caution: Market may go down with volatility, viewers must use their own analysis to buy/sell etc. This is my own view and it can go 100% wrong, do not take any action based on this postings.

No further Q&A or responses may be poor or wrong.

1497

You should stay at home for two weeks. This is the type of response I was expecting Trump to work with every nations, other than healthcare + homeland security + delivery services + certain jobs, everybody stay at home for two weeks.

1 Like
1498

I think Trump is under pressure and so are American Business who are forced to give an appearance of doing something to fight a virus, called Corona Virus, that cannot even kill an ant. This is the kind of group think I hate.

But politicians and business owners have to go by how their voters and customers think, even if it does not make sense. At the end of the day, taxpayers and consumers pay for every expenses. Not to mention the economic damage, particularly to travel and hospitality business, this has caused.

1499

When you buy a Tesla automobile, not the stock, I will buy Tesla stock again. One of the reasons I sold Tesla in November was there is a lot of customer dissatisfaction with the service and reliability of the cars. Tesla needs to work on service, parts supply and product quality.

5 Likes
1500

I was so far thinking Tesla CAR was not available for lease, but now they introduced lease almost exactly like GM Bolt lease terms, 3 years.

If I get better car than GM bolt almost similar price, I am going for it.

Daily driving 101 hwy 70 miles during peak travel time is tiring and many times GM bolt security package alerts helped me save from accidents. My only dilemma now is whether to go full function autopilot or not which is $7000, looks to me extra features. For lease, they charge $100/month for this full function autopilot. I may go for this package.

Reg “Tesla needs to work on service, parts supply and product quality”, Product quality I do not have any doubt about tsla (like aapl iphone), but service and parts really an issue. Based on Leaf and Bolt, I do not have any major service or parts replaced last 6 years.

This time, I am going for Model 3 lease for 3 years - for sure. I have 3 months to decide whether I need full function autopilot or not as my current lease completes by 7/15. Once I sign up the lease, I will post here.

1501

Tesla autopilot is not “autopilot”. Go take a test drive. It’s really Traffic Aware Cruise Control with Automatic Lane Keeping and the ability to change lanes by using your turn signals.

1 Like
1502

I can only give examples.

Statisticians love to use expected value for comparison. And expect people to do likewise and feel their is THE way to interpret data.

However, for a person belonging to the vulnerability group like me, I see 1 out of 10 fatality if infected. How infectious I don’t care. All I care is if infected, what is the fatality rate. Now, many people have parents, loved ones and relatives who belong to the vulnerability group. Also, I remembered reading an article that a large number of Americans have diabetes and hypertension, these pre-conditions raise the fatality rate a lot. This is how people are interpreting the data, f… the statisticians’ way, they are not GODs.

STAY in your HOME for the next two weeks.

1 Like
1503

This is what my understanding

It’s really Traffic Aware Cruise Control with Automatic Lane Keeping and the ability to change lanes by using your turn signals. => I think GM bolt security package has similar functions for which they charge $2500 (Premier version comes with built-in). When I drive on hwy, if the vehicle ahead breaks, Bolt alerts by making sound within seconds, I apply break immediately. This saves me many times with 50-75 mins drive on hwy.

Real autopilot is full function has all these, but they charge $7000 for that (lease $100/month)

  • Full Self-Driving Capability
  • Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
  • Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
  • Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
  • Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
1504

5000 dead out of 7 Billion people is a very low rate.
Assuming 1/5 (do not know the real ratio) of that in 7 Billion is vulnerable group,
that makes 1.4 Billion people (60+). 5000/1.4 Billion is still a very small number.

People might by dying at higher rate due to car accident.

Working form home till the end of the month. Boss says so.

1 Like
1505

Fatality rate does not help here. Bacteria are larger, about 1000 nm in size. … Virus: Viruses are smaller, about 20400 nm in size.

Bacteria can easily be killed by medicine, but virus can be killed by human immune system. Common cold is by virus and there is no medicine, except immune system. Corona is Virus, too small like common cold.

Even if fatality rate is 99%, if your immune system is good, you survive !

1506

I keep a distance of 3 second when driving light car like Mazda 3. I keep a distance of 5 seconds when driving SUV like MDX because it has longer stopping distance. If I were pulling a trailer, I would keep a distance of 10 seconds. Sometime impatient drivers try to steal space from my safety cushion, but I allow them to and adjust my distance. I do speeding but I do not reduce the distance to the car ahead of me.

1 Like
1507

The auto park sucks. I don’t use it.
the on ramp / off ramp while you are using auto pilot doesn’t work about 50% of the time
summon is occasionally useful

1 Like
1508

Still talking like a statistician, I gave up.
China managed to mitigate the situation by lockdowns, produce tons of masks, draconian quarantines, conscripted nurses, rapid building of temp hospitals, etc. Otherwise, the deaths is through the roof, possibly in the millions and tens of millions. Wtf, you ignore the human effort. This is not my view, is what Dr Fauci said, if do nothing, that is what you get.

1509

How do you get 7 billion people infected? right now the infected count is around 150,000 or so based on testing or multiple symptom verification. There may be (and probably is a higher number) of infected, untested/unconfirmed people. Speculation is 2x to 3x. You are misleading yourself and others on the severity of the issue by using such comically wrong numbers

1 Like
1510

Another SWE. I am NOT going to put my immune system to test.

2 Likes
1511

7 Billion is approx the world population, not the total infected population. But, I see your point that the infected population is very small. Therefore, your point that the mortality rate is higher among infected people is well taken. It is like saying those involved in accidents die at some rate, But, out of the total population, the number of dying in an accident is smaller because a large number of people drive safely.

We have to find out what is infectability rate with coronavirus, which seems small at this point in time.

1512

Statistics is the art of telling lies. We can draw any conclusion by picking the numbers to discuss. So, I may be overlooking things that you can see. I can accept that much without a problem.

1 Like
1513

Don’t think you understand my point. I am not talking about that particular flaw of statistics. Statistics is extremely useful and have many outstanding applications.

1514

First law of Computer Science is
Garbage In -> Garbage Out

Therefore, the input data is very important.

But, I see your points. Let me paraphrase them to assure you I got them:

  1. some group of people (age 60+ and those with weaken immunity ) are more vulnerable than others and that group has higher mortality rate due to this virus.

  2. China made unprecedented effort to check the spread of this virus. Else we could be dealing with higher death count.

  3. You did not say this but I am adding it from my side. When this virus first came out, it was not clear how it will impact. 2 months later we understand the virus better. But, we must accept that China took position of extreme caution and took unprecedented steps to contain it.

Added Later: Sometime when we have advantage of hindsight, we think we should not have been that much cautious. That may well become the case here. Just as after Y2K problem we found that countries that spend billions on fighting Y2K and those that did not, end up with same net result. Sometime later we may arrive at the conclusion that the effort China made was and the countries making today might not be even needed. But, when it first came out, China had to deal with it without this understanding. And it was a rational decision and right thing to do given the level of awareness at that time.

It is like insurance policy. You spend money buying it, but hope it isn’t used.

2 Likes
1515

From start to end of Y2K, I always felt is BS. I was in IT then, almost all my IT colleagues felt the same way. Initially, we advise do nothing. However, the layman decision makers insist that we do a lot of shitwork. OTOH, from what I read, medical professionals felt this virus is pretty lethal. Upon catching wind of this virus, Taiwan and HK sent a group of highly regarded medical professionals to China to find out more. Although China didn’t want to say much, they sense from the micro-expressions of the medical professionals there, something very serious going on. They went back and recommended immediate draconian measures.

I don’t think Y2K is a good analogy.

As of now,

Confirmed cases from HK and Taiwan are 142 and 53 respectively. They have tons of masks and mask factories that churn out tons of masks. One of the early thing they do is immediately STOP export of masks. Singapore can only rely on the available stock at that time, best they can do is ration masks.