You should be good at it if you stick to the TA and stay disciplined.
Bezos has a great explanation about how and why good leaders are right a lot. It’s not that they are smarter or have better instincts. His take is they are adaptive and willing to change their mind based on new info. Plus, they are always seeking new info.
This is character trait. Knowing what to change doesn’t imply you can change. Able to change is also a character trait. Yes, I am a believer of nature, not nurture.
Even now, I am amazed with your quality of holding ! This kind of buy & hold is a good quality.
I can not be like that for simple reason I do not want to see a loss at my account. By somehow that instinct tells me to sell it when I see profit.
Market is too wild nowadays, it is beyond my imagination, staying away is better than being in ! Carefully adding DCA right stocks on dip days are better too.
Scary but at this rate it might a week away. No bulls left. The bottom is near.
No - but it could go up thousands over a day or two. Meanwhile cash yields essentially nothing. So what’s the advantage in selling - unless you think you are the one in a million who will call the bottom?
This.
Look at crashes over the last century or so - everything from Germany to Brazil to Italy to Mexico. Government’s last ditch is ALWAYS to trash the cash with some form of money printing. Equities end up being the only place to be. And no - you won’t get a clear signal when it is about to happen.
Don’t believe me? Let see who’s right. How long did it take the market to climb back to 2007 high from the financial meltdown?
I am also getting very pessimistic on the market. Other then 401k (which i don’t touch because it’s my investment philosophy), I have been steadily moving stuff out as appropriate. I am now 30% invested and 70% cash. Would be hard to go lower as then I would have to realize a lot of losses on my VOO purchases as the market was going down.
I have IVR, NLY. Oops, this is the reason they were going up today !
IIRC, FED allocated 300B for MBS out of 800B purchases like QE (Sunday announcements)
I have seen year 2008-2011 bail outs and government aids such impacted companies. I choose those high dividend payers, even if dividend cut they resume later, they survive. This is not real estate downturn, but may be manufacturing/supply chain related recession, mREITs may suffer, but will come back in future.
Above all, I have strategic protective SPY puts that can cover any drop in my holdings. With protective puts, I can easily choose highest dropped companies like BA, NLY & IVR…etc.
If you expect VOO to go down further, you can use protective puts like this, so that your net worth remains safe.
This is sample one sold already, but I have different puts to match my criteria.
You need to know/guess what value VOO can reach down (strike Price) and during what period . Add one or two months additional (expiry) and buy puts.
Let’s say a genie appeared and whispered in your ear that this was all a big over-reaction and that Bill Gates is correct that we can get back on our feet in 6-8 weeks.
Where would you invest to maximize your profit?
That much sure…High risk, but for for maximize profits.
I will buy bulk SPY call strike price $300 expiry Jun 2020 - This is expensive, but better option
I will buy bulk VIX put strike price $20 expiry Jun 2020 - This is cheaper, but riskier one
Buy bulk UPRO (3x) riskier bet.
For normal sleepy and boring investment.
just buy VOO, hold for long.
This is not investment advice, do not blame me if it backfires. People must do their own analysis.
Interesting.
It took VIX 6 months to get back down under 20 after 9/11. It took a year after the financial crisis.
What about puts on VIX a year out?
Longer the expiry, higher the cost, lower the profits !
Your initial quote was 6-8 weeks normalcy comes, I just added 2 more months.
If you expect it in 6 months, then case is different. However, VIX calls/puts are not available for us more than 6 months. I tried it and this VIX is unreliable as it can spike any time and drops any time. VIX spread kills some time.
For me, best route is SPY calls/puts (Time bound), or UPRO/SPXU (High risk, no time bound).
All these are Risky bets, lot of potential to lose entire amount when market moves opposite side.
People need to ensure 100% it is right before getting into these riskier routes.
Still 20x gain if you believe we return to stability by next November…election time…
I bought RGR at 46.10. My wife is all excited it’s at 47.06. And I bought her three guns. But she went to Smart and Final today and the shelves were empty. She is all bummed even though our larder is fully and we have plenty of guns. All we have is attitude. Like I told my dad when my mom put him in a rest home. Attitude is everything. And you might as well have good one. Because without a good attitude you got nothing. He was pissed she put him there but he lived 3 more years thanks to her bringing him cookies every day.
The good thing is I visited him every week for three years and became good friends. He was a lousy father but a good friend. Smartest person I ever knew.
I may still have this as an option to get some profits, at least 10% of allocation for this.
But for longer hold, regular dividend income, this is the best time to buy some stock, get ever lasting dividends like hanera gets, that is the ultimate way for investment.
I seek dividend cash flow instead of rental income cash flow by choosing REITs or utilities at once in 10 years deal.
What REiTs are you buying? I am afraid my tenants won’t pay rent thanks to Newsom giving them a holiday till June 1. Meanwhile I am kissing tenant’s butts. And I honestly like my tenants. Fixed a toilet today and they gave me a gallon of bootleg rum. Best rum I have ever tasted.
