Today Market

Posted yesterday when REITs went down crazily. Mortgage REITs are dropped like a hell today - Something not good for Real Estate side

I bought some NLY & IVR and trying to DCA if it drops further. Unfortunately, most of the REITs went up.

I saw NLY bottom was $3.51 but closed at 5.32 yesterday, today close 5.25. Same way, IVR went down 2.75, but closed yesterday 5.44, today close at 5.30.

I am also watching to buy NRZ, AGNC and STOR (warren buffet holding), simple one is “O” Realty Income Corporation .

These are mortgage REITs. Risk is when they do not get profit, dividends will be cut, expecting near term dividend cuts. They are risky when foreclosure starts after recession.

What do people think about DAL? Buffett is in it big, pays a dividend, will surely get bailed out, well-run…

I’d go Alaska or Southwest. I think domestic travel will return to normal long before international.

3 Likes

This week, I have been telling many of friends, relatives and bloggers that market is changed, but no one believed except only one friend who just got 30% into market.

That means 90% fearful which is what the market makers need to get in.

Buffett always says that you should be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.

Even though I change instantaneously on my investments, I am in high time this week. No calls, no puts , but all shares.

2 Likes

@hanera will be pleased. TWLO returning up fast.

You say is only a temp bottom and not a multi year bottom, why bother? Moreover you may not warn them when to sell why would they buy as you say? For most people better to go sidelined till bad news is good news.

If I guess, S&P market may reach 2800 range (SMA200) and then can stay or drop from that level. Even if it drops back, the current deep discounts we may not get at that time.

For example, take my case of IVR and NLY, they were deep discounted price two days before IVR at 2.55 and NLY at 3.55, look at them where we are now, they are 100% jumped below its bottom !

Even S&P drops back after reaching SMA200, it is unlikely IVR and NLY to come to current 6.45 and 5.50 level !

Take the case of GM, it came down to $14.60, but now $18.59. Even though I sold huge amount of GM for profit, I retained 1/20th of my purchase position.

Went to cash :sob:

@jil didn’t monitor :flushed: taking a break watching video :crazy_face: kind of tired being locked to stock market. Don’t want my life = stock market

Now in Costco queueing. Was watching video miss good buy in SHOP :face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

Is this a sucker’s rally? Feels like positive cases and unemployment numbers will Both be up Big next week.

I thought you were sheltering in place. You make changes just like Jil. You have been at Costco a few days this week.

@DoctorOcho, doesn’t seem like there is a reason to rally today. If everyone expects bad numbers it should be priced in. You want to see those that are leveraged get out. IDK if they are out yet.

2 Likes

IMO, buy only red days, but not on green days. But be careful buying on green days which may end up loss.

I do not have fear on red days, but fearful on green days. I always tries to wait for red days and then buy it.

1 Like

IMO, buy only red days, but not on green days. But be careful buying on green days which may end up loss.

I do not have fear on red days, but fearful on green days. I always tries to wait for red days and then buy it.

Since many equities are at 50% to 70% discount level, no retail investors have confidence to buy any, lot of financial helps from fiscal and monetary policies, big investors try to dip billions at rock bottom prices.

Market makers stay away. See VIX has drastically came down. Yesterday night, another blogger confirmed market is less volatile

BTW: These are some guess work, no back up data and it can go wrong, risk is there.

The 47% Gamma mentioned is here, which I do not really understand

https://i.imgur.com/IlK92n8.jpg

1 Like

I don’t trust this bottom. We haven’t even made a bearish cross where the 50-day crossed below the 200-day. This would be an insanely fast V if it is the bottom.

The cruise ships and airlines are ripping higher, since it appears they’ll get a bailout. They are up 20-30%. They aren’t all equal in terms of how they are impacted and balance sheet. They shouldn’t blindly move together. They moved together on the way down due to panic.

VIX is still well above 30. 30 had been a high for over 5 years.

2 Likes

Those insane bullish days are over, now S&P is almost dead bull, it will come limping not like those crazy days of the past.

Even when SMA50 & SMA200 crosses, S&P will not have V shaped recovery at all.

This is recession, by virtue of all forced business closing, the recovery will be long for many years.

Valid point and market is risky - no doubt.

Good time to initiate DCA purchasing into buy n hold stocks. Not an issue for me, you need to because you didn’t own any yet :slight_smile: I notice my electric utility AEP and water utility AWK crashed?

So what are the buy and hold stocks we should be DCA’ing into?

The obvious ones are FAAMG :slight_smile: I prefer AAPL, AMZN and MSFT :slight_smile:

1 Like

Bailing out cruise ships is a stupid idea. Foreign flagged with foreign crews. Their demise will help localAmerican tourist locations . Plus it will restore European locations to be real communities like Venice. They are the scourge of Europe.
Plus the ships can be used to solve the housing shortage in coastal cities.

Istead of bailing them out the government should buy the ships at pennies on the dollar

4 Likes