I bought T on Dec 26, 2018 dip $27.xx but sold at around $35, felt bad later missing the dividend, waiting for my next chance to get in.
Few points towards my purchase:
I checked WSJ store closures, but AT&T operates reduced timing with 60% strength.
Elliot Management, famous like warren buffet, took a stake in T, they are aggressive will pressurize management for profits. Elliot Management takes deep water challenging stakeâŚRead about Paul Singer, hard core lawyer with investment firm.
AT & T Approved $4 Billion buyback allocation on Mar 4th, this dip is the right time for them to buyback and they will do it.
After six months, lot of improvements will come with 5G phonesâŚetc and landline DSL going to 1 GBPS as soon normâŚimproves Video and Telecom.
How Much I expect AT & T go down, my guess is $20 worst case.
BTW: This is my own view, I bought AT&T - still 3% down, not an invitation to buy this stock. Just sharing my thoughts.
I think this crisis is can be described as a sudden drop in economic activity. Just like a daily wage earner falling sick one day and missing the wages that day. This economic crisis is not structural or cyclical. Going back to the earlier example, should the same wager earner become disable (instead of just being sick), s/he will never return to same work. So most businesses, unless they were doing badly before (were nearly disabled) , will survive and return to work.
Itâs not a question of whether or not I believe you or how long will it take. Cash yielded nothing the whole time. How many thousands of points off the bottom did many people miss waiting to get back in? And how much could they have collected in dividends while they were sitting in that zero yielding cash?
Thatâs exactly my point. My original comment was that it wonât be a V shape recovery, which implies immediate jump back to 30k Dow (pre-pandemic scare).
A simple way to think of it is this: banks are deferring mortgage/auto payments for 120 days. Those living paycheck to paycheck will have a lot of bills to pay off on the 121st day assuming things will go back to normal at that time. Do you think those folks will be retaining the same consumption levels pre and post lockdown? It will take time to climb back up again to that level.
Stock Market reflects the value of business traded on the stock market. Therefore,
Earnings, Debts, FCF, and P/E , etc will come into play. Some of the demand is deferred,
some are pulled ahead (like those of Toilet Papers) but some are lost forever (like taxi fare or price of room at a hotel for a night).
I can see the demand for Toilet Paper will remain depressed for six months once it is all over.