Today Market

I was trawling through SA and found this article suggesting buying BRK.B and VTI.
This comment from Amos Tuck is pretty scary. His data is valid about S&P 500 comparison from Dec 2018 to Friday being in the 2300 range and he suggests more pain is coming.

I think tech firms still have a bit to drop. I am surprised that some of the big names (msft, crm, appl) have been resilient and not at their 52 week lows yet.
Goog and fb are close to their 52 week lows already and will probably trend lower.
Don’t want to be a doom-and-gloom person but I think Q2 financial results are going to be bad.

Same article, Lawrence Fuller has a succinct summary for nibbling on positions.

Note: For folks who are hedging or speculating, some of the leveraged ETFs are facing increasing trading costs due to the volatility and from May will only be 2x instead of 3x.

3 Likes

The highlighted comments are hard to understand. But, the main article itself has a very optimistic tone.

Almost all tech firms are working from home,i.e., most of the work is not affected except sales, marketing…etc. Their impact is limited with 21 or 30 days of sales pitch reduction. Still they do business online for all these companies you said. Essential operations, maintenance staff are working at site, but they may be very less almost 10%-15% level.

Essentially, impact is less by domino effect, but not directly from Coronavirus threat.

1 Like

This is a different topic:

My friend is selling a business for $447778, he says last year sales was $254620 that results a profit $81420, and he is almost telling us future is good and we can easily get $80000 every year.

He does not have mortgage or loan with him either.

How many are really seeing it worth or how many feel it is not possible or not trust-able business?

Feel free to assume a condo/real estate business. If there exists a condo, will you buy?

I wouldn’t be so sure about tech businesses not being affected.
Lots of smaller and medium tech firms who buy products from each other or from the biggies will be looking to cut back expenses for the next several quarters. Think about firms like Lyft who were on the hook to spend 80mn with AWS every year. Would they want to do that in this environment? And if they had no other choice but to spend due to contractual obligations, they’d probably cut back in all other areas like Atlassian licenses, Workday licenses, Okta, project planning software, etc.

4 Likes

Why is he selling in the first place, and why now?

I don’t get the hype around Okta. Sure it’s convenient for employees to have everything in one place but it’s not a must have.

Essentially, impact is less by domino effect, but not directly from Coronavirus threat.

Essentially, impact is less by domino effect, but not directly from Coronavirus threat.

There is no real reason behind the sale, but fairly you can assume, he is trying to retire by selling the business.

$80K after paying himself? If so, he can hire someone to do the work for him since it’s so easy. Not enough details.

1 Like

Thank you for helping me explain ! You have almost volunteered by asking me question, thanks again.

This is real estate forum, and most of the members are valuing real estate using simple question like this.

My friend is selling a business for $447778, he says last year sales was $254620 that results a profit $81420, and he is almost telling us future is good and we can easily get $80000 every year.

But, they are scared with stocks go down and feeling happy when it goes up without valuing any business with same approach.

If you closely watch the figures with this you understand the difference. This is warren buffet Berkshire company, a cash flow generator who has 128B cash to buy companies (out of 447B Market Cap) during recession like this.

BTW: This is only to show the difference how to value business without following stock price. Not an invitation to buy this stock !

1 Like

Which ones would be likely to be bought by AMZN MSFT GOOGL FB CRM ADBE?

Mostly big companies take over pre-ipo small firms at cheaper cost. They prefer less than 1B, but extend to good companies up to 3B.

They will wait for deal esp at recession times and take over just before kind of bankruptcy level. Cash rich companies count every $1.

1 Like

Hard to predict but you can start here.
Then add these filters: ‘300-2B market cap’ , ‘neutral’ and ‘Technology’

That still gives you 29 names. You could sort them offline by market cap. I didn’t find any easier way.

I’d say strong chance for consolidation in the restaurants/travel/food delivery space ( trivago, angie’s list, yelp,grubhub, non-public: postmates, doordash). tripadvisor/expedia could be ones doing the buying

Storage space (Box,dropbox)
Others: Cloudera, 8x8, Zuora, Tivo, Upwork, Talend

2 Likes

Folks, casino is open again. Futures down bigly. Limit down any minute now.

Edit: Limit down. Only took 3 minutes of trading.

:scream:

Futures have come back alive! Did Pelosi say something?

How is it coming back. Still down 4%.

1 Like

If some kind of massive stimulus is not passed tomorrow, we’ll see another black Monday.

2 Likes

McConnell miscalculated. The market expected a package mid week. To put pressure to get his deal passed he put forth a deadline of Monday. Making everyone expect it on Monday. The Democrats called his bluff. And now we are up shit creek

Down 4% is better than limit down. Lower your expectations. :mask:

1 Like

I do not think McConnell is giving the taxed money. Market should not be looking for money printed out of thin air. I would rather see market reflect true value rather than artificially pumped up value.