Today’s Market November 2021

I’m so confused. UPST doesn’t even breakout R&D spend. It’s all SG&A. They are a tech company??? AFRM is the same way. Tech companies that don’t need to do R&D, or they do so little the spend isn’t material.

The entire business model is using AI to have higher approval rates and lower loan losses. We saw how that worked for Zillow home buying. There’s a reason banks historical charge high rates for credit card debt, and BNPL is no different.

Didn’t we learn anything in the Great Recession? FICO score was the greatest predictor of default.

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Mr Market goes defensive. Selling ROI stocks and buying FANGMANT and theme of the day (metaverse).

Reading PURU bearish tweets is contagious. I sold many stocks, raising cash to 40%.

How is a growth mindset slapping a new name on a decades old idea and arguing it deserves a premium valuation? I know. This time it’s different. That’s said by every idiot before the bubble implodes.

They’re literally admitting they can’t come up with new ideas and need to rebrand old ones.

That growth-mindset graphics has nothing to do with what you wrote. I just put it up here because I think it’s good advice, for life in general and investing in particular.

The woman in the first half of the clip is a perfect explanation why institutional investors suck so much. Josh gave a great answer here.

Josh is dumb! The right question is always consider the opportunity cost.

2021 Q1 chart. Weight of equities should be even higher for Top 1% peeps after the relentless stock rally this year.

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Josh is bullish on Nvidia:

Sell. Josh is usually wrong. I will listen to him if he is as rich as George Soros.

Don’t listen to Josh.

Listen to Kevin Praffath.
He speaks clearly.
He explains well.
He is entertaining.
He is in.
He almost won the CA governor recall.

Who is this guy?

Screen Shot 2021-11-19 at 1.46.05 PM

He wants to be the fisherman?

How long can the logs support the falling building?

Screen Shot 2021-11-19 at 1.50.14 PM

I follow him for a long time. Don’t give too much emphasis on his tweets.

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What he didn’t realize AV is part of the metaverse :slight_smile:

Suddenly, fin twits become bearish. Now, investors (more like traders) are worried that there would be valuation (e.g. P./S, P/E) compression for software companies esp. ROI type of companies. Hardware companies such as AAPL :slight_smile: and TSLA would be less affected. Is crypto software or hardware :man_shrugging:? Are chip businesses, software or hardware?

Light holiday week. Only thing exciting is Zoom. Maybe Xpeng too?

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Market continues to slaughter the ROI stocks.

Passive investors that invest in S&P and Nasdaq continues to beat the superstar fund managers such as I/O fund and ARKK that have team of experts and did plenty of sophisticated research. TQQQ investors (without trying) also laughing to the bank.

Anyhoo, despite going to 50%+ cash, still very red today, nearly 10% decline in portfolio worth! Obviously due to huge losses in calls… scramble to close them but a little too slow… 6 stocks are still too many! Santa Claus rally is so RED? Thought Powell means strong market rally? Wtf.

Tapering >> Reduced liquidity >> Strengthening US dollar >> Increased Interest Rate >> Increased Discount Rate >> Valuation Compresson >> Carnage of ROI stocks. Cash rich stocks would withstand for a while but would be dragged down later as investors have to sell them to cover margin calls and losses.

Everything rally has not changed to everything fall.

So far SPY is still GREEN. So is AAPL TSLA. MSFT FB GOOG AMZN NVDA are red.

Who dare to BTFD?