Today's Market 2/14-20

You took good risk. I was desperate when I put all in to AAPL, after the dotcom bust. What the hell, all in into ONE that matter :slight_smile: Lottery. AMZN was not bad too… after the fact… thought bookstore is crap…

Too easy target for people of your calibre. Should be at least 10x over 10 years.

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Lol thanks for the pressure!

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My pleasure.

Some anonymous TA guy this morning.

Latest update:

He is right, QQQ bottoms today and peak is pushed back to mid Apr, price about $400 (not $350). You posted too late. I posted all these earlier, some yesterday, not all in this thread, over a few threads.

You are not watching TV drama anymore? Full time monitoring the tape on computer?

I watch TV at night. In between, do household chores and run grocery errands. Not like you, so free.

I have mastered multi-tasking after many decades of being the slave in the house. What to do, not smart enough, no company want to employ me.

For the last 10 years, since 2011, only one stock TSLA (15000%) beat the TQQQ (6000%).

TQQQ investing at dip is a chance to gain more, esp dips like this today. In fact, 10% dip gives 30% gain using TQQQ.

At any time of buy and sell, you must exceed the percentage of TQQQ between the period. If you make it, you are real winner.

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This is the issue. It exactly did the same yesterday ! Yesterday, it backed up and then deep dived today…This is working like ICE engine, push and pull indexes daily leaving the some stocks corrected fully !

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Now do Bitcoin.

What’s is this guy taking about @hanera ?

The chart is not complete. Anyhoo, the resistance is 1.382% (not sure the ref because chart is not complete), above that is 1.618% :slight_smile: So broke up means go to 1.618%. Guess is $77k :slight_smile: If his chart is correct, bitcoin will rocket pass $100k eventually. I didn’t do any in-depth analysis of bitcoin. I don’t like bitcoin although I strongly believe in blockchain is the future. I believe governments will come together and kill bitcoin eventually. When the day comes, $100 becomes $1 before I can react.

China already has a digital yuan. I think it will have the opposite effect. Rich people will want to hide their assets beyond government’s reach. They don’t want to have everything confiscated by just one click on a computer screen.

History lesson:

Don’t mixed up cause and effect of interest rate vs stock price.

They both can be cause and effect depending on situation.

If interest rate rise is due to increase demand for money arising from booming businesses, stock price appears to have increased due to interest rate increases.

If interest rate rise is due to government wanting to stamp inflation, then it will increase cost of borrowing artificially which would lead to slower growth hence decrease stock price.

Check why interest rate has increased? So far it appears to be due to booming businesses, so is ok. Fed will need to follow interest rate increase otherwise, it will end up giving easy money to businesses. that would lead to high inflation (not due to good businesses), not good because can lead to bubble.

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True. So far the price increase has been due to increased demand, so it’s healthy. If it turns into a supply side issue, like the oil shock of the 70s, then we could be in trouble.

I think the changed attitude of the Fed also needs to be taken into account. There has been wide acceptance now that the Philips curve doesn’t work anymore, and that monetary policy could be far more dovish before triggering inflation. The Fed is now willing to push it harder to see how far it can go. They want to see inflation actually kicks in before tightening. Rate hike may be farther away than people assume today.

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You want me to change the peak from mid Apr to further date? I need to monitor closely :slight_smile:

Depends on what you are looking for. If you are content with say a 10 to 15% correction maybe you are right it can happen in April. But if you are looking for something of dot-com magnitude I don’t think it’s in the cards this year.

I don’t know which is the right one :slight_smile: Given Fed put, probably is retracing impulse from Mar 2020. Also, I don’t know the magnitude of the retracement, can be anything from 23.6% to 99%, most common, 50%-61.8. So if it is 23.6%, you can laugh your head off, blink and is over. 23.6% retracement is equivalent to your 13.9% correction :wink: no big deal.

The problem with EWT is it provides only probability and a range of retracements and impulse waves. Need other technical indicators and fundamentals to narrow down to the most probable count.