Probably yes. Recently because of the snow, my crystal ball is frozen, so I can’t read anything clearly.
Anyhoo, I have not doubled my SQQQ holdings yet… watching.
What made you to forecast (Friday) about market correction? I was (my algo did not) not able to get that on last Friday. It was pointing green on Monday, bought spy calls too (lucky to sell morning with profit) Yesterday, clearly found this drop.
Nope. You want to bet a lunch?
We have our answer today. TSLA didn’t hit 50 day and bounced off into the green at close.
Roaring 20s 
1 Like
Fed isn’t even done with QE yet. Much less raising rates.
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1362116666566594568?s=21
Fed won’t raise rate despite inflation?
Who is Walter?
Fed officials see economy ‘far from’ where it needs to be, meaning easy policy won’t change soon, minutes show
“Participants noted that economic conditions were currently far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the stance for policy would need to remain accommodative until those goals were achieved,” the meeting summary said. “Consequently, all participants supported maintaining the Committee’s current settings and outcome-based guidance for the federal funds rate and the pace of asset purchases.”
You want to bet a lunch or not? I say Fed won’t raise rates in Q2 2021.
1 Like
I own Tsla, Aapl, Fb, Goog, Baba, Nflx, Sq, Ebay/Pypl, and 4 other index funds. However, Tsla is 65% and Aapl is 20% of the portfolio. The rest are kind of insignificant.
1 Like
Then is 2 
Don’t count index funds, I have those too. Btw, @manch seems to own 30-50 counters, too diversified, might as well buy index fund. Conc portfolio means 5-10. Anecdotally, not scientifically, those doing well, own 1-2 stocks with tiny of others for moonshots.
Wonder what a concentrated portfolio of Luckin coffee and Ehang would look like…
Look at this forum,
@wuqijun 2 with minor stakes in other
@Zeapelido 1 with minor stake in other
@Jil 2 and a trading portfolio
@hanera 1 and a trading portfolio
@marcus335 3 and a minor stake in other (guessing)
Exclude index funds
Pick up to 5 that you have MOST conviction in. Reduce other to minor stakes. Pump holdings in these 5 up to at least 80% of the portfolio. Btw, this is not a financial advice, is provided for entertainment only.
Time to remind yourself of survivorship bias.
1 Like
Do you want to have a chance to soar like an eagle or always crawl like a worm?
I just aim to be happy playing my own game. You can’t have 100% of the upside unless you are fine with risking it all on 100% of the downside.
We play different games.
It seems that you think you know survivorship bias. Allow me to verify that,
APC (armored personnel vehicle), assume you know this, if not search the web.
The military command wants to improve the survivor rate of the APCs. So it instructs the R&D dept to study where to reinforce the armor of the APC for higher survivor rate. R&D dept did a count of the bullet holes in each major part of the APC,
Front 50%
Back 22%
Side (Left) 11%
Side (Right) 12%
What is your proposal? Why?
Huh?
You’re younger than me yet don’t understand the millennials’ mantra YOLO?
I believe you concentrate all your resources into one thing to build wealth, then diversify to preserve wealth. I concentrated on RE development. Luck and skill. Value add.
Buying stock is passive. One big bet and hold on. Mostly luck.
2 Likes
Exactly.
Obviously.
It means if you don’t bet all-in and has a chance to soar like an eagle, you will always crawl like a worm.
YOLO
Your example is an adaptation of the WW2 warplane story. I read about it in Kahneman’s book Thinking Fast and Slow. Great book.
1 Like
I bet (relatively) big with what I saw was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of reward vs risk at the time.
I don’t even pretend I will come across the same opportunity again. But even if I did, no way would I allocate 90% of the portfolio to it.
I am now transitioning to inbetween grow and preservation. I want to grow better than index funds, but not looking to 10x.
I am fine with big bets on individual stocks being 10%-20% at max. I will still feel like the reward was worth it and gain that investing dopamine pleasure while reducing downside. Could I grow net wealth 2x or 3x in 10 years this way? I think so.
3 Likes