Today's Market April 2023

AAPL :+1: BRK/B COST dragging up S&P :+1:

Talk too fast… oil price spikes! WB is correct… f… the EV.

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Market closed green :+1:

Healthy pull back, sold all SPXU/SQQQs profit taking, slowly getting in. Still market may go down next one or two days, I am DCAing bullish side, mostly bank stocks/ETFs (DPST came low again).

In addition to AUVU, the same provider came with AVGE another ETFs.

JP-Morgan came up with two ETFs to compete with VOO and QQQ and they are monthly dividend paying JEPI and JEPQ respectively. These two are getting wide acceptance as JPM is well known and they use unique methods (buying Equity linked notes) to make better gains over these standard indexes.

I do not know pros and cons about these…


I bought more DPST too. Also bought DPST Sep calls.

As a personal rule, no options, no margin money. Risky tradable bets are limited 3x. This way, I am slow and considerably safer side than losing entire amount.

Very likely, the short term dip cycle may end today, worst case tomorrow mid-day. Started buying bullish side, SOXL, DPST, KRE…etc, slowly DCAing now. This time, adding JEPQ as a test drive.

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Jil, unlike you I dont have any tool or algo but I think the market is heading down from here… let’s see who is right. A friendly bet… whoever loses give a thumbs up :slight_smile:

Thank you and appreciate you always sharing your thoughts…


Whoever is right, that’s my forecast :wink:

Btw I think recession has started. Will be officially recognized 6 months later :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

Normally, stock market pre-empts ahead of economic crash. This is supposed to crash in Mar 2023 when SVB failed, but FED+TR quickly responded to avoid collapsing before real inflation is reduced.

How come market crash without AAPL reaching double top at $175?

This is exactly my partners said (saying to me) and they are just holding 10% in market and cash 90% where as I am 90% stocks.

Never know what I am writing here is “Right” or “Wrong” as it is hard to predict future.

But few analytical guesses help me firm on bull run next 1 month.

Since FED+TR added liquidity for banks (indirect pumping money), market will take more time(shifted from Mar to April-end or May-start timeframe).

Crashes are not slow like yesterday and today. Crash won’t give time for others to think as bulk offloading shares (Multi-billions/Trillions) will be in market. Within 3-7 days, SPX will be 7%-10% down.

April is results period, big players will wait for results (FAANG result week) until end of this month and then revise their forecast on stocks/economy and then try to offload mass offload (if any).

Stock market crash is a result of big players offloading big amount on market. Before any crash, market goes to steep high and then drop. Those big players waiting for peak price and then offload so that they get max gain.

Based on my algorithm, this is not a crash start time. Our next SPX stop is around 4203 and max height is 4397, beyond which market can not go.

This may break (guess work like Apr 28, 2022 ) or around that period after seeing major results.

BTW: I may be right or wrong, just wrote everything for discussion purpose.


Morning DCAed further and market comes positive from here. Next week it has to go bullish run


Green :+1:


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@someone12 and @hanera,

Today, I have got a extreme sell alert on ORCL from my system, when I researched further one extremes, I have got 38 stocks near extreme high.

Out of which two notable stocks Microsoft (almost double top) and Elly lilly (peak). I already shorted ORCL based on my alerts, and very likely review weekend MSFT and LLY and buy Apr 21st OTM puts as they can not stay in the current peak for next 7-14 days.

You see they are with five or more days red after red, they can not go up from here, but forced to drop

If market leads to 4128 or 4150 next week, many companies (almost 50 companies out of S&P 500) will be at extreme peaks and market will start going down.

Based on my revised review (I do some analysis), I have to go back on my prediction of bull run until Apr 28th for SPX 4203.

Market can not maintain current peak level by Apr 21st and must come down that makes someone12 likely win.

Thanks for the betting, it gave me some more angle to see why market is about to crash before Apr 21

BTW: I may be right or wrong, do not trade anything based on these postings.


We have the highest yield curve inverted now since 1960s


Wow! unprecedented…

Interesting they are counting 2020 as a recession. I think the inversion shows how insane people think the fed is for wanting to increase rates more.

US Bond market is considerably big enough to predict the issue


Current FED watch tool

May 3 should be pause. Sudden jump in probability of 0.25% rate hike is due to unexpected OPEC cut in production… should settle by May 3.

FED do not have any control on external forces like OPEC.

If May 3 is pause, market will dive down after May 3.

If it is 0.25%, market will go down earlier than May 3.

On any case, drop cycle will be set at some point of time.

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