This person also has S&P currently in Wave 3. Is that similar to your count @hanera ?
Broad market likes the low headline CPI. Growth stocks mixed.
However, bitcoin traders don’t. Also TSLA and SQ… these two tickers tend to trade with bitcoin.
Market has changed to bull side now, while it is good to hold KRE, DPST, XLF as they were beaten heavily. Results are coming Friday (XLF related) and Tuesday (KRE related). Market may keep the upside until results are out (This is pure speculation, not algorithmic prediction).
[edit] End of the day alert gave bullish signal for QQQ & SMH, looks like market resumes run now. Added more JEPQ than QQQ.
Based on this signal, I have 70% into the market now, mainly bank stocks, etfs, JEPI, JEPQ,SMH…etc.
If market goes down tomorrow, I may take some select calls for bank stocks.
BTW: I am holding all these and may be biased. Not a financial nor stock advice.
IMO, now market heading to my figure 4203-4397 range, never know future, let me wait and see.
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Market always find reasons to go up and down. For investors, the only thing that matter is the long term (not daily, not quarterly, not yearly) fundamentals.
4300-4400 
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My bad! Typo error, when I said market turns bullish and have 70% into market, I meant 4203-4397 range.
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Still one more day bull run possible until SPX reaches 4203 but depends on the big banks results tomorrow before market open.
If market reaches above 4203 (as future is unpredictable), very likely healthy pull backs possible Monday & Tuesday.
By all means, market may reach peak during FAANG results leading up to 4397 (simulated forecast) and may not go beyond.
Still 0.25% rate hike must vanish for that 4397!
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So many bears out there right now. It seems only the FaceRipper is bullish. Also seems like everybody including the Fed is saying recession will come later this year. It would be most anticipated recession in the history of recessions if it indeed comes. Super funny if nothing happens.
I just can’t see how the stock market will roll over and die when the riskiest of the risky assets - crypto - is rallying hard.
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Is in dot plot long ago. Only now Fed put it in words. Big boys have already did all the adjustments.
Media is working for the big boys. Scare retail traders into selling their shares. So expect some sudden dives now and then.
No way ! Recession will hit hard this economy and it is not far away.
Market is driven by virtual enemy of all investors. It will be bullish - like today - when no one is expecting. Same way, it turns bearish suddenly!!!
The downtrend started in Nov 2021 has not fully completed. That will be completed when we all see a Circuit breaker.
Here is my view.
Media is just providing running commentary, after the facts, with a nice presentation.
Big boys ignores Media versions as they have the capability to analyze, forecast and estimate. They adjust based on their review.
Retailer believe Media’s over exaggerated versions ( either bullish or bearish) and have fear or fomo and ruin their investments.
For one example: When minutes says recession later half of the year, everyone scared to buy stocks yesterday and no one expects a bull run today.
However, Market went up with high spirit today!
That includes my partners who did not believe when I said market goes bullish today. Now, they are crying with FOMO !
Even though I shared my secret alerts, they were unable to believe it yesterday. They just bought 5%-10% of cash to stocks.
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Highest short interests since 2011. Everyone is bearish, which means a nice rally will happen to tear these dirty bears to shreds.
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Correct ! That is the way market works, it will kill all the puts and when puts are very low, market crashes nicely !! For crash to start, you can count the days from now, it can happen anytime unexpectedly.
I’d put more confidence on your algo than your macro call. I think the jury is still out whether we will have a recession simply because everyone and their dog are calling for one. Things are rarely that straightforward.
Actually let me rephrase it a bit. There are two pieces to your macro call:
1: a bad recession will come; and
2: therefore the stock market will tank.
So both have to be correct for the macro call to come true. I am not sure it will happen this year. It may, but I think there are a lot of uncertainties at this point in time.
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How can the recession happen unexpectedly when everyone thinks it’s coming? In my lifetime I have never seen such an overblown overhyped supposed recession. If it happens then what?
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Social media. News, rumors and opinions spread fast. Human greed and fear won’t change but can happen much faster or flip flop much faster.
The original plan of Fed is to pause rate in Mar and cut rates either end of the year/ start of next year. So far, events are not significant enough to change this plan. What have been changing are what reported by media and emotions of people, changes upon every events.
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Manch has posted “Highest short interests since 2011”. Now, you see market is continuously bullish killing all puts. Until these puts are going into thrash, market will be make that bull run.
It is the media over-hypes everything, the same media will be bullish in 7-15 days and everyone will forget recession topic, then market shows real face!
When manch said this, I just vote him, but kept quiet. Now, I justify my statement why I am emphatic on recession.
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No one believe this => Ever since I created algorithm since 2017, I was able to spot every recession or correction (above 15%) both TOP and BOTTOM. Year 2018, Year 2020 TOPs clearly closed with proper BOTTOM, but the current TOP was Nov 8th, 2021 and DID NOT CLEARLY CLOSE WITH BOTTOM. Instead, market changed the path bullish from Oct 14, 2022 and will haunt us with Recession (and mandatory circuit breaker).
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What market corrected, so far, is effect of rate hike, but it has not corrected Domino effect of lay off which is what FED is aiming.
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10 year note - big multi-trillion dollar market - expects next 5 years no growth (zero) for SPX market, and demand for 10 year note inverted yield. When inversion normalizes, market in recession.
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When I am able to spot market movements with my algorithm (you know, I am a smal player), FED with world class database and IT experts, they know (and can forecast very clearly) everything happens in US+world Economy. Unlike Media says, they are not fools, but very experienced persons in their field. That is why, whole congress has created that body in 1913 and still have faith in FED work. Otherwise, they would have dissolved FED!
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Recession is about economical slow down, that comes with rate hike as everyone’s cost of borrowing increased, revenue+income reduced. Then, stock market adjust by 40%-50% down from current level.
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If I guess, when FED says “Pause rate hike” in May 2, very likley market goes down as no one expects a recession at that time.
In short, current market is cheating everyone with bull run!
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I am only 5% vested in stocks. I watch CNBC and Cramer for entertainment. But a 50 % drop in value will need a catalyst… more banks failing. Big brokerage collapse. What I would like to see is a complete ban on crypto and a huge transaction tax on speculative non productive assets that are used solely for speculation. As long as people are paying $60k for Tiger Woods golf balls and $30k for useless bitcoins there is too much stupid money… go after the speculation not the gainfully employed. Would you rather see 2 million more unemployed or a bunch of speculators bankrupted
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So low???
@manch and his progressives would strongly oppose in the name of innovation.
Banning crypto in USA won’t stop the use of bitcoin. Many nations (experiencing high inflation), wealthy individuals (want to hide wealth and do illegal transactions) and gen z (want to get rich fast) need bitcoin.
He is right with 5%. IMO, market is running final lap! He will get a nice opportunity to buy good stocks at a cheaper price later.
What has happened was Just sector Rotation, first chips, then tech and now banks. No one knows about this sector rotation as media did not tell us “Sector Rotation” where as I use my data analysis to find that sector rotation.
Banks are fine. Today, I sold my JPM ITM call for 110% gain, and hold my ITM BAC LEAP calls and bought SCHW ITM LEEP calls…etc
There may be one or two which we will come to know when it explodes like SVB or FTX. But, 2 to 3.5 million people lay off is enough to break the current economy.
FED is right on track to kill this economy and kill inflation. They have done more than enough to break it.