.
Need to put in perspective, otherwise, sound like Fed is evil. Fed wants to kill the gorilla before it becomes a monster.
Even so, is too low.
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Nobody needs bitcoin. They are just greedy speculators that want bitcoin.
Gold does the same thing. I don’t think bitcoin is as easy to hide from the IRS as people think. But I guess there will always be something for speculative investors… anything from tulips to golf balls. A special speculation tax for absolutely useless items would be a great idea.
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I didn’t say Americans 
USG can’t dictate what other nations and people from other nations do.
Btw, crypto is banned in China and India, yet, many Chinese and Indians are using bitcoin to buy properties in other nations… property owners from those nations gladly accept bitcoin as payment 
True, I am not against the FED, stressed to show what they are determined to do and they will.
For me, If he is timing properly, 5% is fine. Otherwise also, just DCA concept, he can simply add 5% for every 5% drop in S&P or he can do 5%, 10%, 15%,20%, 25%,25% like that. There are many ways to fill in.
This kind of FED recession times, it is easy to time it. Go to cash when FED starts raising rates, just put money in short term treasury (3M or 6M) or No Penalty CDs with 5% yield until big drop say 5%-10% happening in future.
In Elliott wave theory, we are currently in long B (6 months) and next one is the yellow long C wave (3-9 months)
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.
Wave B is what I am worry about. However, wave B can vary widely from 23% to 138% (make a new ATH) of wave A. Moreover, wave B can be quite impulsive.
Based on year 2000 and Year 2008, the B is not ATH, but will turn down in the middle. I am not confident on EW esp. 138%, but I am telling you based on my own calculations that market has all the troubles when SPX touches 4370 or when AAPL comes to double top level.
BTW: Do not trade anything based on these statements. I am writing this for discussion purpose. Future is unpredictable and my inference may go 100% wrong.
FYI: I do not want to write any more as some people may hate me saying Bearish.
Thank you all.
@Jil Please note that you are providing valuable data / opinion to the forum users. In case you are feeling less encouraged. Everyone is free to express their thoughts bullish or bearish, and the onus is on the receiver to filter the right message.
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I think he is referring to 5% of his investment portfolio, not just stock portfolio. So he doesn’t have 95% funds to be invested in stocks.
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Sometimes, I have a fear that I am writing more (beyond my level) as future is always unpredictable. At such times, I try to stop.
I am not skeptical or doubting 138%. You re-read my statements, you will understand.
[EDIT] After close Analysis indicates:
Bull days are numbered max 10 (normal) - 15 (long) working days.
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Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts for Q1 real GDP is revised upward, from 2.2% to 2.5%.
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So it seemed lots of bank stocks were up hard today but DPST was down.
Please do your analysis why and then you will know the answer.
Click on the Twitter link to see video.
FaceRipper’s argument is kinda the same as mine. Because everybody is expecting the stock market to roll over and die, the odds of that happening is actually made lower.
I also think the Fed staff coming out and actually used the word “recession” in their forecast is very significant. I get that you can parse the tea leaves before using the dot plot and such. But for the Fed itself saying recession is coming and then also raise rates to make it happen? That’s a big political bomb. Congress will be asking for their heads, and rightly so. They are messing up people’s lives. And right before the general election next year too. Pressure is building to slow down a bit.
https://twitter.com/cnbcovertime/status/1646970389623459840?s=46&t=e2DAkaxaGRhpAWcndjTw-g
That’s insane considering the consumer spending data.
That’s NOT inflation adjusted either.
What’s the analysis for why DPST was down? I know it tracks a different set of banks than XLF. Is there more to why it was down?
J.Powell often tells that he gives enough notices/warning in advance so that market is not getting any surprise. Before using that word “Recession” they would have calculated many aspects and then worded like that.
This is written discussion purpose:
Even if FED pause the rate (or hike 0.25), SPX won’t see 4400 (Let us wait and see whether this happens). Based on my inference/calculations, SPX can add another 110 points easily.
I re-run my statistics after close, it gives me more (higher chance) confirmation that bull run ends in 15 (max possible) working days.
All the current bull run is mainly expecting the surprise results like JPM today.
For others, it is a surprise, but I made a calculated bet (sold already).
Simple: Today results are JPM,WFC,C and all these are held by XLF. When those are up, naturally NAV of XLF will go up.
None of DPST/KRE holding banks gave the results without which no NAV change and all fluctuations are speculation only.
I had DPST, when they went up on speculation morning I sold and bought again (day trade) but retained XLF holding as bull run of market is still there.
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Earning season is back with a bang. Let’s see how Tesla’s margin is doing on Wednesday.
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That’s also a lot of smaller banks reporting. We’ll know how SVB impacted others.
Many times I have indicated that market is well pre-planned for bullish or bearish run, and do not believe news/media analysts opinion except for a nice after the fact story.
Here you go my next prediction: Market is planning for 1%+ pull back (Either SPX or NDX - mostly both) tomorrow. I would say very likely pull back.
I sold some of my positives like QQQ/TQQQ (fully sold) and bought SPXU/SQQQ (some filled). I am also moving money to TLT, that is the only ETF likely go up from now.
If dip is not happening, I am really surprised. [edit] If market goes up tomorrow too, that is the peak of this current trend. In that case, I DCA more SPXU/SQQQ for next day dip.
This is posted for discussion purpose, do not trade or follow these trades.
This is start of volatility now !
Count down day 15!
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