Today's Market December 2021

Monday, no BTFD.

Tuesday, nibble.

Today i.e. Wednesday,

So, wait…

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I typically look at many factors, but RSI and MACD has been the most consistent for me. In a very bullish scenario, RSI tend to hover between 35-70 and it may never even go below 40. All of these sort of have to line up along with EW, Fib, market profile, support/resistance, social sentiment and general price action leading up to it so I can buy at the most bottom possible. It’s usually a few days to build up the position and I’ll start going heavy once I have the confirmation. I may even write a call option and pick up the share as it goes up. But if things begin to deteriorate, I’ll literally exit 95-100% of the position. I’m very momentum driven and if things don’t fall in line, it’s time to call it and get out. Also, if the RSI/MACD/Fib are not very consistent in the last 1 year for the asset, I try to stay away.

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You have forgotten to mention the timeframe. Daily, weekly, hourly, 4-hourly, … standard spec for RSI and MACD?

Hah. Daily to look at trend and entry point, hourly/4-hourly for price action. Forgot to mention, I look at option premiums quite a bit as well. Today, when the index price action was on STFR territory, especially the last few days, it was a sell signal for me even though some were showing strong momentum. Ofc, social sentiment (especially those with a strong price action feel) confirmed my bias.

It’s extremely oversold though. I think there will be a rally tomorrow in the opening hours at least…if that gets sold again…maybe I’ll start btfd.

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S&P index: DCB of a correction (i.e. further pain to achieve 10% price decline from recent ATH) or consolidation (less than 10% price decline) is over?

Omicron - Highly contagious, mild => “common flu” => End of pandemic
Increased tapering => inflation controlled => Yield of 10-year treasury decline => cost of borrowing for growth stocks drop

Shouldn’t above mean re-opening growth stocks like ABNB should rally? Why is it dropping?

Glancing (so not detailed analysis) of growth stocks…
Those that have been declining since Feb are in Cycle (multi-year) degree wave II
Those that have started declining recently are in Primary (multi-month) degree wave 2
So it shouldn’t be too long that wave II and wave 2 will be completed.

I am wondering… are the big boys manipulating the stock market? By spreading unfounded fear?

Noted that after wave II and wave 2 is the powerful uptrend wave III and wave 3 respectively…

Above is thinking aloud, not a financial advice.

Didn’t they say they will decrease tapering and even accelerate it?

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Accelerate tapering :slight_smile: means decrease buying Treasuries.

Short-term rates went up while yield of 10-year Treasuries go down.

In general, market reacts to yield of 10-year Treasuries. Somehow, there is a widespread fear of rate going up? Puzzled.

Oh sorry, food coma after lunch. :face_vomiting:

I think it’s the uncertainty. Can inflation be controlled with increased tapering? I’m not so sure…to me, service, housing, etc inflation won’t come down easily for fed to cool it down OR maybe it’s the fear of deflation/demand reduction. Decrease in demand will be massive for inflated stock prices.

I’m already seeing the effect. For example, we had a lot of problem buying bicycles for kiddos (woom), having to wait for months last year. Now, they can’t sell enough of it…spamming me everyday with deals with free goodies if you buy the bike now. Even apple will have a slowdown as seen on the news. I’m definitely buying much less these days. I had a splurge moment in 2020 and early 2021, buying all the fancy stuff (automatic cafe machine, large TV, house upgrades, furniture, etc). I only bought apple macbook pro recently and don’t have a plan to buy any more expensive stuff this year.

Hmm…maybe we’re looking at stagflation. :thinking:

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Perhaps Mr Market is unhappy with the uncertainty created by Powell, he flip-flopped. So can we still trust him?

Inflation will prove to be transitory precisely because Powell shows he is serious about combating inflation. I think inflation will prove to be lower after 6 months than the market priced in right now.

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I? That is what bond market is saying. Bond market is usually correct. So I am puzzle why stock market behaving differently. Whole day trying to wonder what stocks I can add but no action, distracted by your constant bomblasting.

Huh? I only got out of bed after the market already closed.

Mirror images.

DocuSign crashing!

Own SNOW. Didn’t own ESTC or DOCU.

Btw, your NET is being shorted by fin twitters :imp:

By high growth stocks, guess he is referring to those that have hit ATH recently such as DOCU ESTC U MTTR… because many like PTON ZM have been declining since Feb… many 50-70% decline.

Why is Puru wants SPX to decline by 15-20%? Is it because he wants equal misery as he didn’t own any FANGMANT?

FANGMANT has tons of cash and optionalities (popular big word for options). In a bear market. these companies buy their shares or acquire other companies for cheap. In a bull market, their shares rocket. Win all the time.

Puru is losing his mind. Gets emotional. Shorting names he don’t have a clue what they do for business. You should encourage him to short cryptos.

Funds have been dumping the most expensive tech shares…

Momentum stocks continue to underperform.

UPST - Have started nibbling before this video. Could go as low as $150 but worthwhile to start nibbling now.

DIS - Almost pull trigger on this one. Monitoring closely. If it can implement metaverse properly, huge potential.Think have to buy some 2mrw.

SWKS - Not interested. I will wait for NVDA to deep dive :imp: