.
Hard to believe is so low. Market has all kind of expectations. I feel is 5%.
Is it time for me to try a bull put spread on the QQQs? Say one week out and sell 270 buy 295? I’ve usually tried that only in a rising market and I am not sure if there will be enough good news in the next week to sustain this rally past 295.
This guy thinks is bear rally but AAI sentiments is too bearish.
His sentiment is based on the two generals must crash before market bottom. A popular belief spreading in social media.
That’s a HUGE move for one day. The market is already pricing it in. I didn’t think it’d be THAT fast. The fed does NOT surprise the market, so once the lower terminal rate is priced in their hands are tied.
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Face ripper has been consistent all year long. People have been giving him shit though.
This is only one print. One data point doesn’t make a trend. We need at least one more month’s data to be certain. But it’s obvious to anyone who pays attention that inflation has been easing. The only uncertainty is when the lagging official data will finally catch up to reality. It looks like it may finally have caught up.
My question is when is the next data pint that could contradict and cause a correction? I think it’s the next inflation print or maybe Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales numbers. That means the rally should continue for a bit.
The FTX collapse is actually very bullish to Coinbase. There are two FTX: FTX.com is an off shore exchange, and FTX.US that’s based and regulated in the US. It’s the offshore exchange that’s blown up. It looks like Sam stole customer asset and transferred them to save his own hedge fund Alameda Research.
Coinbase is the biggest domestic crypto exchange. It’s highly regulated. After FTX blew up, customers especially institutions would be idiots to trust offshore exchanges ever again. Fund may flow to regulated exchanges like Coinbase. US regulators may also crack down on these Wild West offshore exchanges. That’d also be bullish for Coinbase.
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I am breaking my own silence deliberately as today is the classic day that bear market starts again.
If my algorithm is right, from today till another 5 weeks, market goes to trash. The fire can start either Tomorrow or Monday and goes until (even little after) FOMC meeting with or without circuit breaker.
I am just breaking my own silence to show the power I have to those telling me, with evil ideas, with that I am an amateur trader or I will lose entire money.
I took enough SPY puts Mar 31, 2023. Final fireworks starts now onwards.
I do not answer any comment or questions.
Leaving this blog permanently.
Educate and Educate yourself, Good Bye and Good Luck.
why are you leaving? Good luck as well! 
Big bears like Carl and @Jil short the market by long puts.
Other bears like Puru short Nasdaq.
Blue or Red pill?
Some ppl who constantly bully and have god complex ridiculed his algo and trading style.
Why are you leaving?
So what if other folks are taunting you. You have your opinions and you should feel free to express them.
fwiw, I bought some QQQ puts today too since I don’t believe the bull trend.
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Don’t get upset with what other people say. Many people here find your opinions valuable.
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Knox has been laying the bullish case for a month now. Here’s his latest webinar recorded on Wednesday, before Thursday’s surprise CPI print and market melt-up.
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I am clueless. Just want to say something out of boredom.
What is the definition of pivot? Same as U-turn? Specifically, is 0.5% for Dec a pivot or has to be negative i.e. reduce rate.
Based on above definition, I feel pivot = U-turn
Using above definition, no pivot in Dec. 0.5% rate hike is not a pivot.
Lesson for SAAS companies. Please no revenue. Fast growing revenue is not good because people will ask how much, how fast, sustainable? I think he meant no earning.
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I think pivot would be something below 0.5% and them saying it’s the last hike for awhile. The biggest pivot would be no rate hike. I mean technically a rate cut would be a full 180, but that’s not reasonable.
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