I am completely confused. If China put tariff on soya bean, the Chinese soya bean importer collapse. Wouldn’t that mean China has been foolish to have tariff all this while? Shouldn’t China lift all tariff?
It’s hurting $50B of a $19T economy or 0.2%. It’s probably bad for farmers this year, since they have to plant crops months in advance of harvest. I’m sure they’ll adjust what they plant next year and be fine.
It’s hurting America by further deteriorating its relation with China. You want to maintain good terms with a rising power, not sabotaging its rise. History has shown that sabotaging does not work and usually backfires.
We expect 1.3B bushels of soybeans to China out of a total 4.4B bushels. That’s 29% of the crop that should rotate to something else. It’s amazing the lengths journalist go to to make stuff seem sensational. I had to find those 2 numbers in different sources.
It’s the last marginal buyer that sets the price. The 29% that needs to find another buyer depresses prices for 100% of the crop.
In a free market the current crop allotment is already optimal. Farmers all want to make more money. They chose soybean last year because it gave them more income. Any rotation because of non market reason depresses income for everybody.
29% would be the upper limit. In reality the impact would be lot lesser as we will be selling more to other countries. US agriculture is already heavily subsidized to keep the pricing better.
From the reporting this takes the cake:
America’s farmers don’t want to be paid to lose – they want to win by feeding the world.