Got Amazon appx at 760 (real deal), 775 (deal), 833 (high), holding now.
This is the way I guesstimate.
You will see excellent results for Amazon that makes it to $900 range.
I will sell portion of it as profit taking keeping balance for long term.
If there is a surprise with the election, Wall Street will drop at least 500 points and perhaps further. On the other hand, if the results are as predicted, Dow might increase by 200 points or so since the market should have already factored in the victory by now. Aside from hitting profit targets, I think even if you took profits today it would be deemed a wise decision.
Most people say Hillary will win for sure. I actually think it’s a close race. A Trump win is a real possibility and it could catch many people by a surprise. But Wall Street guys are not dumb, they might have already sold a lot in the last 9 days.
Hillary should lose Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. If Trump can pick up one from Pensylvania, Michigan or Colorado, Hillary will lose.
On second thought, I think a Trump win will mostly affect stock market for a short time. Housing price won’t dip for Trump since it takes a lot of time to prepare for sale. Panic sale won’t happen since people’s fear will subside in 2 weeks.
Ditto about Florida and Arizona. Not sure about North Carolina, but I think he will win Michigan. Like what @marcus335 noted, his propaganda should resonate most with the people there.
North Carolina will most likely go to Trump. Black people are not really enthusiastic about Hillary.
Michigan is possible, but it would not be an easy win since it has been blue for 30 years. It takes a huge force for people to change their party.
I agree with whatever you said about surprise. This is panic mode, not good for long term investment especially 5 to 10 years time frame.
I failed in BrExit prediction (foreign issue), luckily I did not speculate anything before brexit, gained 7% return by brexit fall.
Only few times stock fall vertically. This year Feb 2016, Brexit day, Oct 14th and Last Friday. My investments are normally happens at good stocks at steep fall day. Other days, I may take some profit making.
On any case, calculative investment is good. If someone did not buy last Friday, it is like not buying home during 2008-2011 period. This is the main reason, I do not believe news/media hypes, but believe in US economy and many metrics around investments. Right information (by analysis) is key for success.
This is cut and paste from a book.
Trump is almost certain to win now. Most likely Trump will have a huge win with Midwest turning red. I thought he would win one of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Now he is poised to greatly exceed expectation.
But what is going to happen to stocks tomorrow? Fortunately I sold yesterday, but selling today would be better.
What’s going to happen? Like I said, expect at least 500 pt drop.
Market is limit down 5%. Peso is down 10%. Kicking myself for not doing a put spread with 1% of my portfolio. I am 45% cash though, so it’ll time to do some shopping!
Will this kick start the decline of RE?
I bought some gold etfs and finalized my dual Irish citizenship a few months back. My husband told me I was crazy. Maybe the dual citizenship was overkill but the gold looks like it will pay off.
We were already on the tail end of the economic cycle & flirting with recession in the US. Now for sure, 2017 will mean a recession for the US. RE will be down. Get ready to buy.
I don’t think RE will decline. People don’t just pack up and move. Although if he really does kick out illegals, then that’s a LOT less people living in CA. Rents/prices might moderate some.
Unfortunately, they do when stocks decline and companies lay off workers.
Why would companies layoff anyone because of his win? I think that’s a lot of hype about nothing. If he does lower the corporate tax rate to 15%, that’s a HUGE boom to corporate profits. I’d expect a deal for companies to repatriate offshore cash which is another boom. There’ll be R&D investment, stock buy backs, and dividend increases. If he sticks to the plan, he’ll undo tons of regulation. That’s a plus for business. The market is down simply because of uncertainty.
The only thing that’s reliable driven GDP growth above 4% is tax cuts. It happened for JFK, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush. That’s BULLISH. People freak out about the deficit going up, however every time we cut taxes tax revenue increased.
Companies won’t lay off, but imports from China will be stopped. Big gain is corporate tax rate.
Yes, market will come back.
It is better to get all stocks at low. All I am left with is 10% of cash !!
But, Interest rate hike is real key issue. Let us see.
Perhaps the corporate tax cuts will save the day but if a company’s stock price takes a big hit, they will have to make cuts. Markets don’t like surprise and Trump is a surprise and a huge unknown in regards to trade. Stocks will be down substantially.
Low price means sale proceeds from RSUs can’t afford higher price of RE.
Market future is fluctuating between minus 680 and minus 800. speculative down may likely come up later.
I agree with Marcus that media is making a big deal of Trump president which is nothing.
Economy could see a huge boom. But this boom might be more beneficial to Midwest and headland. It’s the Midwest and heartland who voted Trump. If they are going to boom, what’s going to happen to us Californians who opposed Trump and bad mouthed about him all the time?
None of the Silicon Valley companies donated to his campaign. Even Republican Whitman turned back to Trump. How are we going to work with the Trump administration?
