We Are in Bear Market


#343

Chinese shares may be on the cusp of big rally. Some policies to support buyback and talk of tax cut.


#344

I read multiple reports that SF Bay area will replace New York as the most influential city in the world. It’s expanding beyond tech into FinTech and BioTech. Read about Palantir; they supply intelligence to all think tanks. United Nations is probably the only reason foreign leaders visit New York city. A visit to the bay area is becoming more standard because most of their investments or potential investors are here. Apartments in Manhattan sell for tens of millions of dollars. SF has a long way to go to reach those values. Our salaries will keep growing where as Wall street ones will go down because of FinTech. I think we are in a long term trend of SF bay area home values going up and New York city losing value.

Real estate values doubling in the last 6 years does not always mean a slow down ahead. This region keeps on producing companies like Nvidia which went up from $15B to $120B in the last 3 years, effectively doubling every year. Imagine calling Nvidia a bubble in the first year. You can miss out on the best opportunities if you keep thinking that all markets need to revert to mean.


#345

So are you buying anything back? Have you bought back already?


#346

I feel manch’s pressure. Let him relax. Pressurizing him stress himself so much he would make the wrong decision. We want a wealthy manch :slight_smile: right?


#347

futures up.


#348

We all do except @harriet who likes to dance on people’s graves :rofl:


#349

Down and than flat for may be 2 years before picking up slowly (unless we see another QE)

I plan to buy RE and continue to accumulate shares albeit in small numbers. I have large investments in shares directly and indirectly (401K, MF etc) that will continue to grow as I max my 401K with a very generous match from my employer, invest in ESPP and retain my RSUs.

I am not a permabear. I believe in economic cycle based on demand and supply. The last one was disrupted due to a fraud (2008) and unprecedented monetary expansion that followed it. The cycle should resume with a new normal. Till we see another fraud and the repeat of the cycle.


#350

Since year 2000, west coast is leading with tech while east coast is leading with financials.

Reg real estate, it is very likely be flat some years, in view of mortgage rates, until those rates have become normal rate in the eyes of buyers. There is no incentive (like low mortgage) going forward to go crazy.


#351

Went to an open house this weekend after a long while - have never been to such a deserted open house. I was the only person for the entire 10 min that I was there.


#352

Did you dance? :dancer:


#353

You were in Fremont and didn’t tell us?!


#354

Is an apple a fruit? :rofl:


#355

Why are you bringing back unpleasant memories… :laughing:


#356

@harriet, try making an offer. They won’t even respond back if it’s not high enough. In Fremont especially there are lot of homes that need renovation but they still expect high offers.


#357

:+1:

You work in FAANG?


#358

I’m waiting to see if there will be a price reduction. I’d be okay with bidding above but the current list price is already quite aggressive and given that open house was a letdown I’m gonna take my chances and wait. If it goes pending well then so be it.

What’s weird is this is classified as a Redfin hot home, but nobody was at the open house :roll_eyes:


#359

Was this the first week?


#360

Yes first week and I went there during prime time too. Asked the hosting agent when’s the deadline to submit offers and she was a bit hesitant and said it depends on how many offers are present, which tells me she’s not confident that there’ll be a lot of offers and it may open for another weekend. I don’t want to submit an offer only to have a price reduction a few days later. Sometimes these people won’t shed a tear until they see the coffin; might as well wait a little bit. Not dying to get this property so if I miss out I’ll just look for the next one.


#361

Which house? Let’s get a vote on whether you should buy and how much you should offer :rofl:

If interest rate keeps going up next year, price may continue to fall. You may still need to pay more due to higher rate, but you can wait to refinance to lower rate if there’s one.

If you really want a deal, buy a house after Thanksgiving, before New Year’s Day. Might as well get your offer accepted before Christmas as a gift to the seller.


#362

Well, I went to two open houses that were on my way to my San Bruno home and at one there were a lot of Asian folks. The other one technically was just opening for the day so I may have been just early. LA did say offers are in but with contingencies and were turned down by the owner.

Here is the one with the ton of folks. It was nice and ready to go, despite the 24 in the address number. Now, does it sell at that price or more is the question.

image

https://www.redfin.com/CA/South-San-Francisco/2425-Donegal-Ave-94080/home/913942