Maybe we won’t get that. This could just be a minor correction as opposed to the real deal.
We interview so many business owners. I swear! Their CPAs tell them to spend, spend, spend, show receipts, etc. They love tax code, or section 179.
We just create for them a program where they can put aside 10% of their gross income, up to $2.3 M. That is money they can save. Not taxable. 
Commission for that? 20% 
And, no need for a state license to get that $.
Do you know anybody?
There’s more and more talk of a incoming economic slowdown, so much so that Kudlow felt compelled to respond:
It puts pressure on Trump to make some deals with the Chinese. If economy tanks, or even if just the confidence fades, Trump can kiss any chance of re-election goodbye.
Somehow I am worry about the real deal. I believe it would be worse than 2008-9 because of complacencies. Everybody think it won’t happen is a mind sync, becomes likely to happen. I’m more comfortable if there are many differing opinions. If this is a correction, is timely because it reminds investors of the risk vs return relationship especially high risk high return.
Trump has already positioned to go either way. He is monitoring the situation. Push China harder to have a solid win or let go to have an excellent win. Both way he wins.
“My personal view, our administration’s view, the recession is so far in the distance you can’t see it,” Kudlow said.
Even if recession is 2-3 years away, a slowdown can still make stocks going down another 20% in 2019
The margin calls kick of domino effects and continuously hitting all margins. Even if Trump removes tariff or even FED stops interest rate, we are in helpless state to see market is going down further.
When AAPL slides, with 90B sales estimate - all time high record revenue - I see the system is out of order.
I am waiting for thanksgiving if there is any hope. If tomorrow and Monday sell off happens, this is point of no return.
I don’t think it’s the real deal. Even if it were, it would be a 20% recession at worst, and not the 50% drop we experienced in 2008-9.
So much drama. Far more money is lost than made trying to time the market. Dividend yields on the S&P are about the same as cash and the Feds take 20% of your gains and CA another 13% every time you sell so just ride it out.
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LOL…that’s what 401K managers told their people in 2008. Then people committed suicide or went BK or came back to work but no jobs anymore. …
Black Friday sales is an immediate wild card. Will it be good considering the full employment?
But with Amazon stealing the sales, it could also disappoint.
Switching to pessimism from optimism just few days ago?
Look at VOO (S&P index ETF)… I have posted in the S&P and NASDAQ thread previously but may be you didn’t read it…
So far, look like a textbook regular flat pattern.
Flats appear where any 3 wave corrective move can present itself (with one exception). For example, you will find flats in the 2nd or 4th wave position of an impulse, in the “B” wave of a zigzag, in the W, Y, Z, or X waves of a complex correction, or in the “A” wave of another flat.
Following a flat is always an impulse. Since the flat is entered via a bullish impulse, the ensuing impulse is a bullish impulse - an up wave establishing a new ATH.
I got into pessimism by the market reaction on AAPL. This company resulted 63B and forecast 89-93B. Company fundamentals are solid and positive, but market reacted differently. Not a single stock, broad market reacts badly.
But market reacted with 24% down, why?
Many companies resulted 75% positive and 26% exceptional results. Here too, fundamentals are strong.
No matter what good company it is or how good company results are, market sentiment is pulling down.
What are the positive points that can bring up market or company?
Positive results or fundamentals are not pulling up entire market, keep on going down and down.
Let us look at negatives.
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Short term: Shutdown on Dec 7th. Somehow they will vote and move the shutdown to another 6 or 12 months.
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FED rate hike: Do you think FED will hike rate now? FED can not hike rates, sealed for ever long term no rate hike.
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Tariff: No settlement with China, the 10% whatever done will not even be revoked.
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Hanging government: Trump can not give incentive any more, nor can raise voice against any one. Neither Senate, nor House can come to any agreement.
We have seen last six years of Obama. Now, Trump has the same stale government.
- Dec is normally sell of period for tax purpose until Dec 31st.
Market will not go up (except temporary) until Dec 7th - looking for shutdown talks.
Once that is over, market will look out for Dec 18-19 FED rate hike. They can not declare before, but market will not go up without FED declaration no hike.
Then, year end tax loss sell off.
This means, until Dec 31, 2018, there is no recovery, margin sales will be prevalent.
What will make the market up before Dec 31, 2018?
There was a theory that market will touch SP500 at 2605 and then recover. I will be waiting for that point alone.
If it goes down below like 2500, we have down spiral.
See Trump…He is supposed to keep quiet, but openly tells this. Then, every funds will pull the market down again.
Can anybody send a note to that vulgar president to shut the hell up at least once a day?
This not the apprentice anymore. This is serious stuff.
Tech Rout Puts Silicon Valley on Edge
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“I’m actually quite worried,” said Hoffman, who created his incubator, Founders Space, in 2011. He said he’s pulled 80 percent of the money he had in public markets and 60 percent of what he had in private markets. It’s all parked in cash now. “There’s nothing safer than cash.”
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Curiously, that new-found cap on exuberance is hitting the Bay Area real estate market faster than it is private tech valuations. The go-go days, where every new listing sold as soon as it hit the market, are gone. Tracy McLaughlin, a real-estate agent in Marin County, says she’s seeing price cuts of up to 10 percent and is bracing for a 20 percent decline in her business next year. Ditto for Natalie Kitchen, a realtor in San Francisco, who, like McLaughlin, only sells million-dollar homes.
Both of them cite the rout in tech stocks as a key reason for the recent declines. “I think it’s more about that feeling of generally being poorer than you thought you were,” Kitchen says. When clients began asking for discounts on listings, she was taken by surprise. “Those are not conversations that we’re used to having.”
I actually down sized (Half) now, leaving my positives TSLA and TEVA in tact. waiting for S&P500 below 2600.