We Are in Bear Market

Thanksgiving sale :grinning: kick off Santa Claus rally.

That chart shows it’s mostly tech which had been outperforming big time. Now tech is reverting back to the mean performance of the overall market. The only sector charts that aren’t terrible are consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare. Money is becoming more defensive. Usually bonds go up when this happens, but the rate hikes have caused bonds to fall too. Oil and stocks are very correlated since 10/1 which is weird too. Gold which is a normal fear trade hasn’t budged upward yet.

It honestly seems like a lot of directionless churn and rotation. It happens periodically. Most big money managers have to maintain sector weightings within a certain percent of the S&P 500 index. When a sector runs, they end up forced to sell it to rebalance.

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This means the regular flat and a 1-2 pattern is valid :grinning:

May be, hoping, that is why waiting to see below 2600.

That is what Bloomberg technical analysts told. It needs to touch 2605 and return. If it goes down further, they said it will be recession.

When did they said it? I mention the flat few weeks ago :grinning: sometimes I think these guys stole my analysis :imp:

S&P needs to touch 2605 and then likely return. This is turning point for market. If it goes down further, they said it will be recession.

In fact, I did not believe it at that time (when S&P500 was 2792)

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I don’t get why 2605. 2576 would be the low from earlier in the year. The 50-day is still above the 200-day.

Strictly speaking should be 2532, guess author wants to be safe :grinning: I think the issue is with tech stocks, many folks are selling shares and vested RSUs to lock in gain. This behavior is positive reinforcing. The

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I do not know why 2605 as I am not really a TA person.

RSU sell off will not pull down 5% again (ultimate 20% down) on FAANG stocks. Big shorting can do
Shorting can not hold long time as you see NVDA pulled up (as previously shorted is released today).

It must be from big players sell off from mutual funds/hedge funds or multiple margin calls sell off.

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Will tomorrow be an all out moonshot kind of a day of recovery?

Rubbish. Apple was never considered to be a part of the “FANG”.

Note FAANG - Double “A” = AMZN and AAPL.

How about FAAWNG? Faang + Wuqijun.

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Employee holdings are a tiny percent of FAANG stocks though. Apple is repurchasing more shares per year than it’s issuing to employees. That’s why the share count is decreasing. Employee buying and selling isn’t moving companies with market caps in the hundreds of billions.

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Faang == bear

Wuqijun == Perma Bull

Both do not go together :rofl:

Will be a new day in hell. :smile:

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Employees sell shares, RSUs, liquidate 401k, ETFs, mutual funds … lead to big boys need to do like wise.
Shorts smell blood, shorts.
Hedge fund managers lock in their bonus by selling.
Retail investors panic and sell, magic calls/ forced selling…
All above is self-reinforcing…
With low tech stock price, employees can’t afford bigger house… pay + diminished RSUs value => weaker demand for RE…
The story goes on and on… till…

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Til Tesla re-invigorates the economy with remarkable technological breakthroughs in transportation and energy and lifts the stock market to all-time highs. Tesla shareholders will become more prosperous than ever.

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