We Are in Bear Market


#844

Bloomberg runs an article

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge


#845

Will Trump steal our Christmas?


#846

From September this year. Now it’s even closer to zero. :scream:


#847

Christmas came yesterday and now gone? :scream:


#848

Sell, sell and sell.

Investors are skeptical about the economy. Fed won’t lower rate anytime soon.


#849

How do you sell when you didn’t buy :grinning:


#850

Stupid Fed. :rofl:


#851

:dancing_women: :dancing_women: :dancing_women:


#852

:rage: :rage: :rage:


#853

I was writing yesterday that market will see a major fall today but couldn’t complete and trashed the post.

Expect more pain and one more interest rate raise later this month. Trump is not backing out of easing pressure on China. He will reason later that he gave China enough time to act and they didn’t do anything.

I would stay out of Stocks and RE for sometime.


#854

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trade-wars-economic-impact-has-been-minor-that-could-change-1543892760


#855

I mentioned last week that there will be trade drama. We are seeing that now. It will continue like this. I think Trump and the Fed don’t want stock investors to exploit the low rates and the strong economy. So they will keep pulling it down. On the other hand, companies will keep making their sales numbers and the economy will be fine. Real estate will keep on its normal pace because people need a place to live close to where they work.

Note: All of the above assumes that Trump wants to get re-elected.


#856

It’s a well advertised fact, no assumption is needed. I think Trump want a good trade deal. But he has no way to control Fed. Interest rate is the bomb.


#857

Actually the crappy stock market will force Trump’s hands in landing on a deal. All the worries about economy slowing and trade tension are putting a bad spotlight on him.

Trump in his core is a showman. He likes to put on these summit shows to impress the gullible. Now he’s personally invested in a deal with China most likely he won’t let it fail. Just see how Trump keeps defending the fat Kim.

Mueller is also circling the wagon and the Dem house will make his life hell. Trump needs a win. Negative economic and stock market headlines are definitely not what Trump wants.

Negotiations will be complex though. If necessary there will be a couple can kicking extensions.


#858

as usual, we are in this because Trump lives in his own reality and just makes shit up to make himself look/feel good.


#859

Sound logical and hope you’re right. The eventual outcome of the drama is not pretty place to be. When do you think they would wind down the drama?

I really hope that is what he wants but I doubt it. He wants something else.

You seem to be as optimistic as zensiri. Hope both of you are right.


#860

I really miss the days when the media blindly believed everything the president said and just looked the other way.


#861

I am not that optimistic on the economy actually. It will be slowing down going forward. Recession around 2020 or 21. Maybe Trump will pull it in just in time to sabotage his re-election.


#862

Trump phenomenon might not be an accident. It’s inevitable after the 30 years of golden period of globalization after the 45 years of cold war period of west-east bifurcation, after 2 world wars.

History has its own pace and its own gene. Trump is only the beginning of the new era which is not named yet. And Trump is not the worst, US is far from the worst. Europe is at a grave risk. Paris street riot is just a warning sign, it will continue for decades. I just hope that people in Europe could use their votes instead of street riots. Trump’s election might have helped us to avoid Paris styled riots.


#863

Really? Tell me when? The media put Clinton through the wringer. Same with Obama. The media generally has a right of center bias