Long debate, will explain to you in the next meetup.
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You always say next meetup. Have you scheduled one yet?
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Another escalation.
Many people brought up the independent judiciary as an argument why this arrest is not political. But whether to pursue a case, how to pursue like what charges to seek are all controlled by political forces. Even the Iran sanction itself is political in its core. It’s not a black and white crime like chopping a US national in pieces.
If it’s not political why were the highest levels of governments in Canada and US: Trudeau and Bolton, alerted to the situation? Does every arrest come to their personal attention?
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Whatever it may be, this will be ongoing, never ends until both parties come to some settlement. This is no way affect stock market.
If stock market tanks based on such issues, it is sensational not fundamental changes, that is an opportunity to people waiting on sidelines.
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“Independent judiciary” is merely an excuse used by Canada.
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That depends on whether Trump is aware beforehand. If he was, is a fundamental change.
Trump is a horrible manager, and that’s why he keeps failing in business before coming to the white house. He doesn’t know enough details, too dumb or lazy to find out, and hire horrible people. He now has two opposing camps trying to impose their own agendas. A strong manager with full grasp of the situation can pick one side and tell the other side to shut up and get on. But Trump is not capable of that because he knows nothing.
I think the dove side like Kudlow and Mnuchin are as horrified as us about the arrest.
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Fast forward, three months from now,
- she may or may not have reached a deal, but the court case will continue,
- US-China trade war, tariff will remain same status quo (not even single bit change)
- Assume now he (Trump) knows ahead.
But, US stocks will go up.
If this happens, do you still see fundamental change or sensational change now?
All I see news/media is making up sensational issue (being a well known CFO as a celebrity) for whatever unknown reason (sell off) stocks tank.
BTW: Chinese Foreign Ministry Summon US ambassador means both sides are taking it govt-2-govt, Trump would have the knowledge, may be ahead. Court proceedings means long term issue.
Another fun Quora thread, although only 3 answers so far:
Do you agree that beneath Huawei is the biggest China containment story and why or why not?
One person’s answer:
Hidayat, former CEO
It’s containment, but not sure whether it’s the biggest. The reason I say this is from a personal experience, and I concluded that Huawei is way ahead of its competitors. The only way to stop it from decimating what remains of the West’s telco vendors was to use an asymmetric approach of using other non technical issues.
Years ago, I was running a mobile telco. We had Lucent Technology of the US (subsequently bought by Alcatel of France, current status unknown), decided before my time. During my tenure, we were going to upgrade into 3G. Not having an engineering background, and wanting to make the right decision in a 3G vendor selection, I decided to engage an outside consulting firm who dispatched a Dutch and an American engineer to draw up the proposed specs and requirements, translated into Request for Proposal (RFP) from vendors.
After months of back and forth, we settled on Huawei due to its technical availability, price and financing terms.
The implementation was ahead of schedule. As is normal, during the trial period, there were teething technical issues to be resolved. Everytime there was a problem, Huawei would send engineers (4 to 20 people at different times) punctually to fix. This continued even after handover. They did not charge us each time they sent engineers to do trouble shooting. Compared to Lucent who has a non negotiable tariff of US$ 1000-$1,500/man day.
My experience told me then that one day, there would be only 2 vendors left in the world, Huawei and ZTE (although I don’t have any experience with ZTE, could be wrong).
If Huawei is successful, this case no way stop its growth as they are not dependent on US sales. Neither US can stop them.
Do you realize the real fight is chip and reserved currency? The rest are weapons and tools.
Not really as the case, to my knowledge, is US technology => Huawei=>skycam=>Iran supply. I do not understand fight is chip and reserved currency.
First case: Assume Huawei loses in court. How does it affect its growth, other than penalty? Product wise, sales wise, it can still continue to grow as they are not in US sales.
Second case: Huawei wins in court case. How does it affect US on Chip and reserved Currency?
I am not talking about Hua wei case only. I mean the beef that USA has with China, started by Obama and dialed up much higher by Trump. Is about securing the future domination in tech and economy which boil down to chip and reserves currency. To unseat USA, need to remove greenback as the currency for all kind of trade amongst nations. In future, most things are smart which mean chip, we might even have chip embedded. So with China declaring wanting to be the number one in semiconductor threaten USA domination (some even think is existential). Get it? What Trump did is pick whatever dirt he can find to blast China till China stop the R&D in chip. Obama only ban certain export. Trump wants to cutoff all access, and the financial resources to do R&D.
Containment is just a US tactic to protect its business interests in the world. China did it with protectionism and that’s how companies like Baidu and 10c came to dominate the Chinese landscape. All these are normal business strategies used on a country-wide level, and should not be seen as something that is detrimental to global growth.
Even after World war II, both Japan and Germany are stronger, their technology is superior in many cases. US is no match to Japan Railway system - great infrastructure.
See at 100000 feet above the ground level, US can not suppress China and Vice versa if individual countries have resources (Finances, Technology…etc).
The only way is individual countries can grow faster to out phase and come as leader, esp economic side.
Any way, my interest is not in disputing pros or cons, but focus is on market and stocks.
Market swallowed nicely 40% of my profits last 2 months, still hoping that I got good stocks are 12 month low price, but is going down and down.
Holding tight without selling ! Let me see what is my future !!
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I think those who hold on to everything (and also add at this time) will be benefitted in the future.
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Yes, that is the hope we have. I even see tech analysis of S&P 500, it is deep low points of year 2018 like double bottom.
For sure, FED won’t increase the rate this month, but still sell off may happen as many funds will sell until Dec 31, 2018.
January may recover, but will be very slow until companies declare results. Any way, hope only remains.
Even though I expected fall based on my excel sheet, I did not expect to drag for 3 months like this. For me, it is a good lesson how October fall will affect the market.
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Unless we hit 20% down and bear territory before next FOMC meeting expect the fed to increase the rates. This may be their last chance. They will use it to build some powder.
Either way you are looking at stock market going down.