Back in 1991 there was a real recession, and it torpedoed Bush senior’s presidency. Official stat is that the recession lasted from July 1990 – March 1991: 8 months.
Look at the pulldown in the summer of 1990. S&P went down from 361 to 300, 17% draw down in 4 months.
Again, that’s when we had an actual recession. This time none of the indicators is flashing red yet. Even if the 2/10 yield inverted today we most likely still have at least a year til recession hit, and the 2/10 hasn’t even inverted!
I have no idea when recession will hit. But we will have ample data to see well ahead of time. None of the indicators is flashing red at this moment.
What we have today is some political bullshit that’s artificially harming our economy. The global trade war is the most important one. Business can’t invest in a highly uncertain political environment. Even farmers don’t know what crops to plant. Add to that the increasingly unpredictable admin.
The underlying economy is strong. Fed is hiking exactly because economy is strong and wage is rising.
Expect China to announce good news in Feb. Trump will be perceived as the big winner. Stock market should get wind of it early, so expect market rally to begin latest in early Feb. If it didn’t, braze for more blood bath.
The recent market bloodbath is actually good for a trade deal. Trump’s position has been weakened a great deal compared to just 6 months ago. Trump needs a win more than ever.
But the underlying assumption is that Trump is rational. I am not so sure about that.
Exactly. Is why China is willing to give it to him to buy 2 years or may be 6 years of peace. Win-win. His daughter and son-in-law are rational. So is his wife.
China can follow Singapore’s example of paying PhD students. Pay any PhD students a SWE salary during their study, of course, for AI/ ML and semi PhD only.
Trade-war will likely hurt China for sure as they are at receiving end. When Recession hits USA, this adds more pressure for US companies to rewind projects, reduce consumption of goods that will hurt supply side countries including China further.
Trump or Trade-war is a scapegoat for this recession, but actually made by FED tightening. Whatever Trump has done on corp tax cut is an exceptional move.
SEC Charges Two Robo-Advisers With False Disclosures
An SEC order found that Redwood City, California-based Wealthfront Advisers LLC (formerly known as Wealthfront Inc.), a robo-adviser with over $11 billion in client assets under management, made false statements about a tax-loss harvesting strategy it offered to clients. Wealthfront disclosed to clients employing its tax-loss harvesting strategy that it would monitor all client accounts for any transactions that might trigger a wash sale – which can diminish the benefits of the harvesting strategy – but failed to do so. Over a period of more than three years during which it made this disclosure, wash sales occurred in at least 31 percent of accounts enrolled in Wealthfront’s tax loss harvesting strategy. The SEC’s order also found that Wealthfront improperly re-tweeted prohibited client testimonials, paid bloggers for client referrals without the required disclosure and documentation, and failed to maintain a compliance program reasonably designed to prevent violations of the securities laws.
A separate SEC order found that New York City-based Hedgeable Inc., a robo adviser which had approximately $81 million in client assets under management, made a series of misleading statements about its investment performance. According to the order, from 2016 until April 2017, Hedgeable posted on its website and social media purported comparisons of the investment performance of Hedgable’s clients with those of two robo-adviser competitors. The performance comparisons were misleading because Hedgeable included less than 4 percent of its client accounts, which had higher-than-average returns. Hedgable compared this with rates of return that were not based on competitors’ actual trading models. The SEC’s order also found that Hedgeable failed to maintain required documentation and failed to maintain a compliance program reasonably designed to prevent violations of the securities laws.
“Technology is rapidly changing the way investment advisers are able to advertise and deliver their services to clients,” said C. Dabney O’Riordan, Chief of the SEC Enforcement Division’s Asset Management Unit. “Regardless of their format, however, all advisers must take seriously their obligations to comply with the securities laws, which were put in place to protect investors.” A bulletin published by SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy contains additional information about robo-advisers.
Any attempt by Trump to push out Powell would have potentially devastating ripple effects across financial markets, undermining investors’ confidence in the central bank’s ability to shepherd the economy without political interference. It would come as markets have plummeted in recent weeks, with the major stock indexes already down sharply for the year.
If Trump is serious the market can drop another 20% in a week. That’s nuclear bomb material.
Not clever enough to catch the bottom, but FB has to be closer to the bottom than the top :). The more people talk about all hell breaking loose the better!
My hold isn’t short term, and there is plenty of negative sentiment of the sector and market now.
