We Are in Bear Market

Bottom when zero stocks hit 52w high?

1 Like

We are in true bear market now

The slide likely to go further another 12% to 17% range before it settles !

Hard to believe. Is that really true?

Just for the month of December, because of Trump’s War on Christmas.

Can’t include housing since it would be circular.

You got influence by mass media. SAHM and SAHD are not counted. Why should those guys be counted?

Not saying you can directly compare markets, but if you were to use the “speed to bear market” as a signal of how this bear might play out, you’d be looking at three markets. The October 1990, May 1962, and October 1987 (and possibly September 1998) bears are closest in swiftness.

If those bears are anything like the current, you’re looking at between 126 and 700 days until the next nominal all time high in the S&P 500. Those drawdowns varied between a mild -20.36% and a scarier -35.94%.

1 Like

Spent the day walking through Princeton with aunts and cousins. Got to see the inside of the cathedral on campus. Got back and kind of wished I’d spent the day buying stocks instead :slight_smile:

Oil is under $50/barrel. Gas isn’t cheaper thanks the CA gas taxes.

The spending on food as a percent of income was posted. It’s at a record low.

At a national level, housing is still historically affordable. That’s been posted too.

Labor force participation rate is up.

It is too much, I can’t take it anymore. I never thought I could be #TiredofWinning
:joy:

2 Likes

Nikkei hit bear market !

Blame Trump!!

2 Likes

The January earnings cycle and more importantly Q1 guidance will be critical. I think earnings will be strong outside of energy and banks. Oil below $50 and a flat yield curve will work agaisnt each of those. If the market is going to rebound, tech will need to lead it higher.

1 Like
2 Likes

The left wing talking points in this area as irrational as the birthers. Fact is Trump has been tougher on Russia than Obama ever was.

Remember when everyone said he’d get us into a nuclear war with N Korea? He’s made more progress than all prior presidents combined.

“And that is a nation that at its best has always stood up for the universal values of freedom and human rights”

That’s complete crap. We’ve backed dictators. We’ve turned a blind eye to stufff for decades as long as the leader was a communist, or there wasn’t oil involved.

Obama tried to hold NATO accountable to their spending goals too. They didn’t respect him, so they agree to meet them then ignored it. Keeping an ally shouldn’t mean turning a blind eye to failures on obligations. If we can’t count on allies now, how reliable will they be in the future? We were giving countries a free ride on our dollar.

So the criticism was Trump is a loose cannon that’d irrationally start wars. Now he wants to end two and bring troops home and people are pissed about that. Sorry, but you can’t rationally claim both.

Attacking him on immigration is BS. He offered a deal on dreamers that even included chain migration for direct family. Democrats rejected it because they wanted chain migration for all family. Democrats literally screwed people living in America over people who don’t even live here.

It’s down right laughable how insanely irrational people get about him. I literally listed all the positive economic indicators. There’s literally not a negative one except for the fed increasing interest rates. Fed rate increases always eventually cause a recession.

2 Likes

Whenever anyone says ‘the fact is’ and then goes on to state an opinion, I get very worried. The fact is that Trump’s ‘toughness’ on Russia is not a ‘fact.’ Neither is his ‘progress’ on N. Korea. By the way, it’s not just the left that has a problem with him…many conservatives (small c) and independents, myself included, are disgusted. The GOP used to be the party of family values and law and order. Now it is the win at all costs because if do we can fire the AG; you cannot prosecute a sitting president; I could shoot someone in the middle of NY/grab her p****y and get away with it party. Those are not my values.

Has ‘liberal’ become a term for those who disagree with you? Kind of like how Jim Mattis is now a ‘Democrat?’

Politics aside, Merry Christmas to all on the board.

5 Likes

These are both indisputable facts. Care to try to dispute them?

1 Like

Sure, and the earth is flat. And Eve came from Adam’s rib. You start :wink:

Btw, whenever anyone says something that nuanced is indisputable, you know they have a shallow world view. Even simple arithmetic relies on assumptions.

Merry Christmas!

2 Likes

Politifact: Mostly False:

Again mostly False -

In fact, North Korea has been building new missile bases and has taken no steps to de-nuclearization.

The right wing noise bubble lives in it’s own reality

2 Likes

Mostly trivial issues? Merry Christmas to all!

So you can’t dispute it.
Got it.
Merry Christmas.

1 Like