What happened to the 2017 recession?

Where is Senseamp? Personally I thought he was an ass. But even I predicted a 2017 downturn for years…Hasn’t happened…well at least in the first half…Glad to be wrong. Even though I was prepared with dry powder to profit from it…Senseamp must be licking his wounds in Vegas along with OneTreeHill…lol

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IMO, 2024 is too far away. The street author has not provided any substantial data to prove his prediction. He will be wrong for sure.

The main active force is FED and current economy.

Few days before I bought a stock SHOP at $90,now it is $97.50 and will keep going up & up ! Even though I gain, this is crazy. If I guess, this company may shoot up to $150 soon. Any thing I buy,in nasdaq, it shoots up madly. Note This is loss making company !

Another case, In just a gap of 3 days span, I was able to gain $2500 in bitcoin. This is pure speculative.

There are 50 nasdaq companies jumped 100% YTD and 20 companies jumped 200% YTD, there 50 loss making nasdaq companies jumped YTD 50% up as of date.

Everything here goes as speculative run, but not really a value based run.

Real estate, bay area is crazy here. My friend, long time looker used to provide offer matching list price or just above list price, offered yesterday 200k more than list price (For the first time I was amazed by his response) lost the deal. The home at Fremont (not mission high) is listed at $960k, but he lost around $1.2M level.

Nasdaq is running with 17.14% YTD appreciation, roads are fully packed, jobless comes down, rate hike is going on, homes are going sky high rate.

This is exactly like year 2000 or year 2007 now.

On political side, reflationary (tax reduction) and debt increase (sep) are main focus and needs to settle. It is too difficult to congress to reduce rate without printing money.

FED is going to hike its rate by Jun 15th and then make a six months pause to see whether political uncertainty settles and whether economy is able to run before winding up the 4.5T QE money or further hike.

A further data packaged some reasonable discussion is going on here

Your prediction 2017 would have come true,Trump just moved out a little bit, but very likely happen between 2018 and 2019 time frame (if I guess!). This can not long last like this. We may be sitting at the Brink of Fire !

The post summary is right “With what I assume is the most leveraged economy in history, even the central banks have huge balance sheets. I don’t think the stocks are terribly overvalued right now, but they certainly aren’t cheap either. I don’t know if we will get a hard landing or a Japanese style lost decade, but the party can’t go on like this

This is another good review

Federal Reserve officials are set to raise short-term interest rates at their meeting in two weeks but could defer the following expected rate move in September if Congress roils markets by delaying action on raising the federal government’s debt ceiling.

The possibility that Congress and the White House might have trouble reaching agreement in September to raise the federal debt limit and approve government funding for the year beginning Oct. 1 has surfaced as a new source of uncertainty in recent weeks.

Since raising rates in March, many officials have said they probably would want to lift rates twice more, likely in June and September. After that, some officials have said they might pause rate increases to start the process of slowly shrinking the Fed’s $4.5 trillion portfolio of bonds and other assets at year-end before resuming rate increases in 2018.

Now, the looming debt-limit fight has some officials pondering whether they might delay the third rate increase until after September or initiate the portfolio wind-down sooner, perhaps as early as September, if a rancorous fiscal fight threatens to disturb markets.

For now, though, Fed policy is on a smooth track. At their May meeting, officials forged consensus around a strategy for slowly and predictably reducing the balance sheet of Treasury securities and mortgages by allowing a small number of assets to mature every month without reinvesting any proceeds, according to interviews and their public statements.

The Fed would start by allowing a small amount of net maturities per month and allow that amount to rise each quarter. It hasn’t yet outlined those amounts. Officials are unlikely to say how big the portfolio will be at the end of the process until it is further along.

The agreement on this approach could be announced as soon as June 14, after the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.

Officials are likely to vote then to raise their benchmark short-term rate by a quarter percentage point to a range between 1% and 1.25%. They also will release new economic and rate projections for the rest of the year, which will likely indicate they still expect to raise rates again later this year.

The Fed’s path ahead is “the most telegraphed monetary policy of our lifetimes,” San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Monday at a conference in Singapore.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is set to take questions from reporters after the June meeting, which would let her explain the central bank’s intentions in detail.

Officials want the process of shrinking the balance sheet to be predictable and boring, with lots of advance notice to markets, “the policy equivalent of watching paint dry,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said last week.

They want to avoid a rerun of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” when investor concerns over the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of asset purchases triggered market turmoil, leading to a sharp increase in Treasury yields and capital outflows from emerging markets.

The Fed stopped adding to the balance sheet more than three years ago, but has been reinvesting the proceeds of maturing assets to keep its holdings steady. Those reinvestments have helped to hold down long-term interest rates, and allowing them to roll off without reinvestment could push up long-term rates.

Markets have largely shrugged off the details of the plans as officials have dribbled them out, giving the Fed a green light to finalize them.

Clarity on the plans for June have given officials time to look ahead to when to next raise rates and when to implement the balance-sheet strategy. The looming debt-limit fight is one potential complication.

Standoffs between Republicans and the Obama administration repeatedly pushed the envelope on debt-ceiling brinkmanship, unsettling markets. This is the first time the Trump administration navigates the issue with sometimes unruly GOP congressional majorities.

The deadlines have been well known for months, but it isn’t clear how Congress and the administration will resolve the issue. One sign of the new administration’s unpredictability came earlier this month after President Donald Trump agreed to a short-term funding bill. Mr. Trump said on Twitter the U.S. might benefit from a “good shutdown” this fall to force a confrontation over government spending.

The Treasury Department began employing emergency cash-conservation steps in March to avoid breaching the federal borrowing limit, set at $19.9 trillion, after a 16-month suspension of the debt ceiling expired.

Analysts initially said those steps might last into the fall, but Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin last week asked Congress to raise the borrowing limit before lawmakers head home for their August recess. White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney told lawmakers that was necessary because federal receipts have been coming in “a little bit slower than expected,” whittling down the Treasury’s cash balance.

Congress also must reach agreement to extend government funding that expires Sept. 30, creating the potential for additional wrangling.

In 2011, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. triple-A credit rating for the first time after the Treasury came within days of being unable to pay some bills. In 2013, the U.S. government endured a 16-day-long shutdown that ended with a bill to extend the debt limit. Congress agreed to the most recent extension in October 2015 after then-House Speaker John Boehner cut a deal with the White House shortly before resigning from Congress.

Fed officials have changed plans before when political uncertainty threatened to stir financial turbulence. They had tentatively planned to raise rates last June, but held off out of concern the U.K. vote on leaving the European Union might cause market upheaval. They waited until after the U.S. presidential election before raising rates at the end of 2016.

Another issue for Fed officials to consider is the recent slowdown in inflation. They indicated at their May 2-3 meeting they were prepared to look past a surprise ebbing in March, and overall prices partially rebounded in April. But prices excluding food and energy in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were up just 1.5% on the year in April, the weakest reading since the end of 2015, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday.

If the recent slowdown persists, officials may need to “reassess the expected path” of short-term rates, said Fed governor Lael Brainard in a speech in New York on Tuesday. She added, “It is premature to make that call today.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 2.217% on Tuesday, near the lowest level of the year, on investors’ expectations softer inflation might prompt the Fed to move more slowly in raising interest rates.

Several officials currently place more emphasis on the strong labor market. Steady job gains have pushed a range of employment measures to their sturdiest levels in nearly a decade, including an unemployment rate at 4.4% in April. The May employment report is scheduled for release Friday.

Officials say they remain confident such low unemployment will be enough to lift inflation toward their 2% target in coming years, meeting the Fed’s twin objectives of stable prices and maximum, sustainable employment.

“The U.S. economy is about as close to the Fed’s dual mandate goals as we’ve ever been,” Mr. Williams said Monday. In reaching those targets, “it is better to close in on the target carefully and avoid substantial overshooting,” he said.

Actually, I think 2017 is more like 2013. Remember the last downturn started in summer of 2015 (China scare). Bottomed out in January 2016. So, the next downturn should start in 2019.

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In short, being long or short is tough. In challenging environment like this, I’d suggest a relative-value portfolio, where you’re directionally neutral but fundamentally sound.

Article says no recession and no growth. Title just says no recession :joy:.

In 2007, the warning sign is the crisis in Bear Stearns. Is there a warning sign for 2000?
What is the warning sign you’re seeing now?

A SFH along the same street, open house on Friday, pending today. Fastest ever.

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Yes, all the dot coms crashed.

Didn’t realize Fremont high end is that hot. Even Mission high is not that high, I’ve only seen 50-80K over the asking price in Mission area.

Year 2000 was Enron and year 2008 was Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers. Year 1998-2000, people were talking about potential correction and year 2006-2008 many blogs/media talking about correction…etc.

Every one tells after the fact ! But those failures won’t come up to earth until FED rate pressure is fully in effect.

When that happens, the unproductive growth stops and the market is in deep red. There is the buying opportunity. Last time, I remember Dow turned back around 6400 when everyone heard “Buffet started buying”

It is easier to tell, hard to predict and practice.

We are more of a service economy now. It can only grow if more debt fuels the growth. Eventually the debt burden gets too much and the economy contracts, because debt has to be paid down. Historically, the tipping point is after rates are raised 2.75-3.25% from the lowest rates of the last recession.

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Which one?


I see the one pending,would have gone pending in last two days, but I do not want to commit here as my friend may feel hurt.It is not exactly 960k but near to it. I can PM you the details.


What I’ve been trying to track is consumer spending.


Your response skips the most important question :slight_smile: . Where is the North Wind? In addition to above question, how do you explain recent WB aggressive investment in stocks? Doesn’t sound like he thinks the end is near. I’m wondering, would bankruptcy of uber or TSLA be good enough?

Not good enough. It would have to be the bankruptcy of amazon, msft, Boeing, and Starbucks combined.

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WB, where did he invest most 18B out of 32B? Will that company bankrupt? This means WB plays very safe bet and he feels, even if economy goes down, his investment is safe ! He is 20 years late than you !!

Tesla will not file bankruptcy ! Elon is way smarter and too challenging Technocrat !

I do not think amazon, Msft, Boeing, and Starbucks files bankruptcy. All these people are hoarding cash abroad and paying low corp tax to US government by showing all expenses, taking low net income.

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So there you have it. None of these companies are going bankrupt, economy keeps improving, no recession in sight!!!

Jil is a straight person, he doesn’t understand that your previous statement meant no recession in sight. He interprets your statement literally and didn’t read what it meant. You’re one of those few who can think deeply and is probably why you are rich at such a young age.

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At times of economic corrections, most of the strong companies survive by reducing expenses, projects…etc. The companies survive, but employees getting hit. The employees are backbone of economic revival and they get first hit when correction occurs. That is why every correction starts with mass lay offs !