What happened to the 2017 recession?

That’s because you don’t visit AAPL boards. There is a guy (IIRC he is mid 70s) who invest every spare pennies into AAPLs regardless of price at that time. This chart shows his net worth over time. He doesn’t invest in RE and other stocks, owner-occupied SFH + AAPLs.

Chart link is broken, looks like it is not available outside some network “Oops, there was an error! | AAPL Finance Board”

Not a day trader, but buy and hold kind of person. The results exceed even 4x leverage of real estate.

Last year, IIRC, it was 27.28% overall taxable account ! This year resulted 40% as of date. Major gains by Nasdaq companies.

This is just the money held for 20% down payment (for my son) which he declined to buy for few years. I may not have consistence return, but this year is extreme bull run.

This is why any home in bay area goes to pending less than 20 days

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Whoa, what happened between May and June? Nvda or TSLA shooting for the moon? :slight_smile:

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How was the 10 year return chart? 10 year total return?

I bought a house last year and it’s up 25% now. With 25% down, it’s a double. Your return is roughly 27+40, 67%. How do you beat 4X leveraged RE?

wow! just curious, which city was this in?

Hot stocks such as FANG + TSLA, AAPL, NVDA are hovering near ATH.
AAPL (x 7), AMZN and GOOGL are over $1000.
Trump rally is extremely strong.

Actually, after 10 years, stocks yield better return :slight_smile: Do your computation.

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April, I pulled some money to pay income tax, that dropped my amount.

Then, NVDA, TSLA, IRBT, CGNX, AMZN, GOOGL and AEIS shot up. Even this week buys like SHOP, and TRUMP down (Dow 365 down day) buys rocking.

When top and bottom line increases,ATH is always there ! People have jobs, spending increases, top and bottom line increases, stock price increases.

The only proven way to control is raising interest rate which is what going on here !

2006 & 2007 was like this extreme rally before it gets down.

I am in fact scared by this bull run. I do not know how did you hold AAPL since 1998 !!

You should read the book, “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits”. Stock price declining by more than 90% should not frighten you if you’ve done due diligence. As I have said many times, permanent decline for a long period of time (you may not have the time to wait for it to re-bounce and have to sell) or risk of bankruptcy is called risk, if it can re-bounce to a new ATH, is not risky, just volatile. One need to learn how to stomach volatility and huge change in net worth.

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Millions of people hold RE for 30 years. How many people hold AAPL for 20 years? What percentage of AAPL employees hold their ESPP and never sell?

RE’s leverage will disappear over time, and it’s net return rate will drop over the time. At year 30, your only return will be rent and appreciation on full market value.

In the early years, RE beats stocks. In the later years, it may become comparable or even lag stocks. You can always cash out and buy more to get leverage.

If you exclude long time AAPL investors, how many people made real money with stocks? Counting everything since you were born, very very small percentage of people make more money from stocks than RE. So the stock investment has a real narrow reach and it benefits far less people. So we should repeal property tax and use a stock tax to replace it. It will be supported by voters.

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Exactly. So why keeping using the first few years for RE vs stock comparison?

Since we can’t buy millions of identical houses, you should compare S&P index with RE.

Based on above two reasons, clearly in 30 years, S&P index return higher than RE.
Historically, RE in bay area returns 6-8%* while S&P index returns 7-11%. These type of returns have to be used for comparison and not the short-term scenario you’ve mentioned in earlier post.

*Elsewhere return is lower than bay area so in those areas, S&P index won handily.

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My intention is to hold stocks forever. So I will try to hold for as long as I can. Right now, my oldest holding is 15 years. But the bulk of my holdings are about 10 years.

As far as real estate is concerned, my oldest holding is 15 years. The bulk of my holding is about 4 years.

How many do you have :smiley:?

I have… just a few :slight_smile:

I’m a very modest person…

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rolling on my floor laughing very loudly :joy:

My god… rolling on the floor really??? Watch your manners! :slight_smile:

Let’s look at SP500.

In the last 10 years, it’s lagging BA leveraged RE. SP returns 58%. Leveraged RE more than doubled.

In the last 20 years, it lagged BA leveraged BA RE. SP returns 158%, leveraged RE more than 5 fold.

In the last 30 years, SP 726%. Leveraged RE more than 25 fold.

I did not account for rent/principal and dividend. Rent plus principal paydown should offset dividend. Even if you include dividend and ignore rent, BA RE still beats SP by 100% at least.

Also you need to notice that SP return from 1987 to 1997 is almost 500%, that’s much higher than the most recent 2 decades.

SP has been giving 5% return in the last 20 years, not 7%.

[quote=“BAGB, post:47, topic:2468”]
I bought a house last year and it’s up 25% now. With 25% down, it’s a double. Your return is roughly 27+40, 67%. How do you beat 4X leveraged RE?
[/quote]Is this owner-occupied or rental?

I find inconsistencies in above three statements.

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I underestimated BA RE. Leveraged BA RE wins over SP500 even without cashout.

This explains why there are so many millionaire homeowners in BA but mush less million dollar portfolios.

It was a rental. Rental appreciation often beat primary home. For primary home, too many other considerations in addition to investment value.

[quote=“hanera, post:62, topic:2468, full:true”]