I have been saying AVP has super impressive tech. But the high price point and increasingly likely user comfort are big hurdles. Any ākiller appā needs to be such a must have that consumers are willing to look past these two concerns.
If you look at the history of iPhone, the cheap model SE happened at the 9th generation. By the time SE came iPhone was already past the corner onto the top flat part of the S curve. Thatās why Apple can focus on making it cheaper because even ones made with components 2 generations ago was more than good enough. It will take many years before AVP gets to that point. AVPās list of āmust improveā is still long.
The $4k price hurdle is different for different people. Some like to spend money on expensive toys. Many fanboys like ASP. Some even say using it on a few cross Atlantic flights is worth the money already.
Still, if you listen to Appleās Vision Products Group (according to Bloombergās Mark Gurman), you would need to wait at least until 2030 for the Apple Vision Pro truly to come into its own.
Not sure is true. At least six years from now? I presume he meant hitting early majority phase.
A true Apple fanboy or tech enthusiast wonāt return the Apple Vision Pro because need the device to try out apps as they roll out.
The first-generation iPhone SE (also known as iPhone SE 1 or iPhone SE 2016 ; SE is an initialism of Special Edition[8]) is a smartphone that was designed, developed, and marketed by Apple Inc. It is part of the 9th generation of the iPhone alongside the higher-end iPhone 6s and 6s Plus. It was introduced on March 21, 2016, with pre-orders beginning on March 24, 2016, and was officially released on March 31, 2016, alongside the 9.7-inch iPad Pro.[9][10][11] It was re-released on March 24, 2017, with larger storage capacities.[12]
It took Apple 9 years of iPhone iterations to be able to make a cheap version of iPhone. How long would it take to make a cheap version of Vision? Thatās why I wrote before it wonāt be 2 years. It will be much longer than 2 years.
Also iPhones were long subsidized by cell carriers. We used to get iPhones for free if you sign a 2 year contract. There is no equivalent of that in Vision Pro. I think the adoption of ASP will be much slower compared to iPhones. Itās not a $500 watch or iPad. Cost is a big barrier.
You didnāt do enough DD. SE was supposed to be released at the same time as the first iPhone. SJ pulled the string last minute. You need an Austinite so far from action to tell you
Jobs died in 2011. SE came out in 2016. Donāt blame Jobs for any of that.
SE didnāt come out until 2016 because it wasnāt up to Appleās standard. That also gel with iPhoneās development trajectory. By iPhone 6 there arenāt that many major developments left of iPhones. I am still happily using my iPhone 8.
AVP is right at the edge of Appleā technical capability. If they can make it cheaper without sacrificing quality, they would have. So donāt hold your breath.
Why do you mention it? You seem to think iPhone didnāt hit wide adoption until 2016. Do you ever check data or just shoot from the hip with feelings?
Cost was not an issue for iPhones because 1) it was subsidized by carriers, and 2) it didnāt cost $4,000.
Also your chart answers your own question about phone shipment growth. iPhone shipment has been flat for almost a decade. 2022 iPhone sales is the same as 2015.
I think there is a nonzero chance both AVP and Zuckās Quest will be niche products. Zuck has been mentioning strong sales of Metaās Ray Ban glasses in multiple occasions. Even in his āQuest is better than AVPā video he also mentioned the Meta glasses.
So I think they are indeed seeing strong sales, and more importantly, they may have concluded glasses with AI is the right format instead of VR goggles.
There was a story of Steve Jobs shelving development of iPad and pivoted to iPhone because he concluded a phone would be a much stronger seller. Maybe we will see a repeat in Zuck.
Thinking aloud: For people who donāt need prescription glasses or are wearing contact glasses, do they prefer to talk to an iPhone or talk to a ghost as for Ray Ban meta smart glasses and AI pin for similar functionality? Not withstanding the latter both need to get a new piece of hardware + whatever.