AAPL and Apple

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If done in spatial computing environment, rocks.

Read his profile more carefully. Heā€™s not an influencer. Heā€™s founder CEO of an app company that has won Appleā€™s prestigious design award.

Heā€™s balls deep into Appleā€™s ecosystem. In fact he made his living there.

I have been saying AVP has super impressive tech. But the high price point and increasingly likely user comfort are big hurdles. Any ā€œkiller appā€ needs to be such a must have that consumers are willing to look past these two concerns.

If you look at the history of iPhone, the cheap model SE happened at the 9th generation. By the time SE came iPhone was already past the corner onto the top flat part of the S curve. Thatā€™s why Apple can focus on making it cheaper because even ones made with components 2 generations ago was more than good enough. It will take many years before AVP gets to that point. AVPā€™s list of ā€œmust improveā€ is still long.

The key word is ā€œreviewā€, not a true consumer.

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Depend on your use case, some found a killer app already, I repeat my example since you miss the message againā€¦

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You have the right to your long winded way of saying the same thingā€¦

and repeat the same pointā€¦

The $4k price hurdle is different for different people. Some like to spend money on expensive toys. Many fanboys like ASP. Some even say using it on a few cross Atlantic flights is worth the money already.

What matters is the rest 99% of the people.

Have you bought AVP yet?

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How many times I have to answer the same fā€¦ question? I am waiting for my wife to arrange for a trip to Apple Store for a demo.

Expect everybody here know about ā€¦

For those who donā€™t, below is a writeupā€¦

Keep answering until you buy one.

:rofl:

View of a true Apple fanboyā€¦

Just a reporter describing what is happeningā€¦

Still, if you listen to Appleā€™s Vision Products Group (according to Bloombergā€™s Mark Gurman), you would need to wait at least until 2030 for the Apple Vision Pro truly to come into its own.

Not sure is true. At least six years from now? I presume he meant hitting early majority phase.

A true Apple fanboy or tech enthusiast wonā€™t return the Apple Vision Pro because need the device to try out apps as they roll out.

I mentioned the history of iPhone SE.

The first-generation iPhone SE (also known as iPhone SE 1 or iPhone SE 2016 ; SE is an initialism of Special Edition [8]) is a smartphone that was designed, developed, and marketed by Apple Inc. It is part of the 9th generation of the iPhone alongside the higher-end iPhone 6s and 6s Plus. It was introduced on March 21, 2016, with pre-orders beginning on March 24, 2016, and was officially released on March 31, 2016, alongside the 9.7-inch iPad Pro.[9][10][11] It was re-released on March 24, 2017, with larger storage capacities.[12]

It took Apple 9 years of iPhone iterations to be able to make a cheap version of iPhone. How long would it take to make a cheap version of Vision? Thatā€™s why I wrote before it wonā€™t be 2 years. It will be much longer than 2 years.

Also iPhones were long subsidized by cell carriers. We used to get iPhones for free if you sign a 2 year contract. There is no equivalent of that in Vision Pro. I think the adoption of ASP will be much slower compared to iPhones. Itā€™s not a $500 watch or iPad. Cost is a big barrier.

You didnā€™t do enough DD. SE was supposed to be released at the same time as the first iPhone. SJ pulled the string last minute. You need an Austinite so far from action to tell you :wink:

Jobs died in 2011. SE came out in 2016. Donā€™t blame Jobs for any of that.

SE didnā€™t come out until 2016 because it wasnā€™t up to Appleā€™s standard. That also gel with iPhoneā€™s development trajectory. By iPhone 6 there arenā€™t that many major developments left of iPhones. I am still happily using my iPhone 8.

AVP is right at the edge of Appleā€™ technical capability. If they can make it cheaper without sacrificing quality, they would have. So donā€™t hold your breath.

Why do you mention it? You seem to think iPhone didnā€™t hit wide adoption until 2016. Do you ever check data or just shoot from the hip with feelings?

1 Like

Can you quote me where I said that?

Cost was not an issue for iPhones because 1) it was subsidized by carriers, and 2) it didnā€™t cost $4,000.

Also your chart answers your own question about phone shipment growth. iPhone shipment has been flat for almost a decade. 2022 iPhone sales is the same as 2015.

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Finally :grinning: Guess what I mean?

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Presumptuous.

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Thinking aloud: Why do people think AVP should follow the adoption rate of iPhone? Why not computers since it is a spatial computer?

I recall the first computer I bought is $4000. Just coincidental :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

More thinking aloud.

I think there is a nonzero chance both AVP and Zuckā€™s Quest will be niche products. Zuck has been mentioning strong sales of Metaā€™s Ray Ban glasses in multiple occasions. Even in his ā€œQuest is better than AVPā€ video he also mentioned the Meta glasses.

So I think they are indeed seeing strong sales, and more importantly, they may have concluded glasses with AI is the right format instead of VR goggles.

There was a story of Steve Jobs shelving development of iPad and pivoted to iPhone because he concluded a phone would be a much stronger seller. Maybe we will see a repeat in Zuck.

Ray Ban smart glasses are called smart glasses, not Quest. So the logical interpretation of the two remarks belowā€¦

ā€¦is Zuck concludes that Ray Ban smart glasses is the right format while @manch thinks AVP is not a niche product.

AVP and Quest both niche products.

Meta smart glasses may be the ultimate winner.

Zuck himself said Quest will be desktop while Glasses will be mobile. Apple is betting heavily on desktop, Zuck is betting on both.

I donā€™t have a firm opinion either way, thus the ā€œthinking aloudā€ label.

Thinking aloud: For people who donā€™t need prescription glasses or are wearing contact glasses, do they prefer to talk to an iPhone or talk to a ghost as for Ray Ban meta smart glasses and AI pin for similar functionality? Not withstanding the latter both need to get a new piece of hardware + whatever.