AAPL and Apple

Downfall of Apple.

Many years ago before Apple was the dominating giant it is today, I read a piece by Paul Graham about how he saw most of the developers in meetings used a Mac. That led him to conclude Apple was going to be do very well. Back then it was still a contrarian take. His reason was that Apple has won developers’ support.

Fast forward to now. Apple has turned completely evil and actively damaging developers’ trust. It will lead to Apple’s downfall. This take may look very contrarian, very unlikely now, just like PG’s observation decades ago.

Tag: Downfall of Apple by a seller-remorse ex-AAPL investor. Mar 6, 2024.
Is current popular narrative, yet call it a contrarian… wtf. Think people don’t read social media (e.g. Reddit) and mainstream media (Bloomberg).
The contrarian take IS: Apple will come up with great Gen AI developers’ tools that make developers c… hard/ wet.

From what I read, both Tim Sweeney and Daniel Ek are unscrupulous billionaires that think they can use their monopolistic power in their domain to ask for extremely favorable deals from anybody. Time to investigate these two monopoly: Spotify and Epic, and their founders. They are over-charging their users! They talk noble (only gullible will believe) in the name of helping users to save some $ but is a disguise for them over-charging users.

Sometimes you need to hold more than one thought in your head.

Current narrative on Apple’s developer relation is that devs absolutely love Apple. Apple makes cool products, has the best looking stuff with the best tech etc. I used to watch WWDC live.

That Apple is falling behind in AI narrative is indeed the dominating one. And it is correct, as people who actually used its current AI product, aka Siri, know. The cult chooses to make up rumors instead of trusting their eyes and ears.

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I hold many conflicting thoughts in my head. I just don’t talk about them much… not here to confuse people and asking people to empathize with me. Not seeking soulmate. I just don’t like pure lies and not evidence-based reasoning.

I view those who use Siri and complain a lot want Apple to improve. If they are using Android, then they are trolling. I personally don’t use Siri or any voice related products from anyone… hate to use voices. So I have no clues whether Siri is that bad or not.

I have no idea whether Apple is falling behind because Apple doesn’t like to chase fad or talk about future products. What I do know is Apple insists on privacy and refuses to use the popular cloud-based approach to AI, prefer to use on-device. Obviously on-device means a lot less data to f… with which we all know AI means data data data, lots of data. So in a way, Apple is falling behind but … if Apple succeeds with using AI with limited data… Apple would be far ahead. Since I know nothing about AI tech, I can only just watch…

https://archive.is/UEvQl

Around the beginning of 2020, Apple Inc.’s top executives gathered at a former Chrysler testing track in Wittmann, Arizona, to try out the latest incarnation of the car the technology giant had been trying for years to make. The prototype, a white minivan with rounded sides, an all-glass roof, sliding doors and whitewall tires, was designed to comfortably seat four people and inspired by the classic flower-power Volkswagen microbus. The design was referred to within Apple, not always affectionately, as the Bread Loaf. The plan was for the vehicle to hit the market some five years later with a giant TV screen, a powerful audio system and windows that adjusted their own tint. The cabin would have club seating like a private plane, and passengers would be able to turn some of the seats into recliners and footrests.

Most important, the Bread Loaf would have what’s known in the industry as Level 5 autonomy, driving entirely on its own using a revolutionary onboard computer, a new operating system and cloud software developed in-house. There would be no steering wheel and no pedals, just a video-game-style controller or iPhone app for driving at low speed as a backup. Alternately, if the car found itself in a situation that it was unable to navigate, passengers would phone in to an Apple command center and ask to be driven remotely.

:rofl:

What a ridiculous concept. No wonder Apple has to kill the project.

:rofl:

Mansfield was among the car skeptics at Apple. His task, as he saw it, was to find out what could be salvaged from the effort. After a few months of evaluation, he decided to focus more attention on the self-driving system than on a car itself. Autonomous software, he argued, could benefit Apple in other areas, even if the company never made an actual vehicle.

Agree with bolded words. In fact, that’s what happened.

For Field, Mansfield and others on the team, Cook’s indecision was frustrating. “If Bob or Doug ever had a reasonable set of objectives, they could have shipped a car,” says someone who was deeply involved in the project.

Yes, blame failure on the supply chain guru.

Around the beginning of 2024, Cook, who’s known for making decisions based on consensus, began seriously considering shutting down the project.

Shutting down the project is mooted by Peter Lynch, the software guy from Adobe…

When asked, he made clear that true autonomy might be another decade off. He seems to have finally convinced Apple’s leadership that that was a problem without an affordable or reliable solution in the foreseeable future.

(Some internal estimates pegged Apple’s cost to produce the car at about $120,000, far more than the $85,000 the company had wanted to charge for it.)

F… it… No go.

Some employees would immediately get shifted to Apple’s AI division, and some would move over to software engineering. A chunk of the team, though, was immediately without a job. Hardware engineers would have the opportunity to apply for roles in other groups, but there aren’t spots for everyone. Other employees, such as the hundreds of car-specific engineers, test track technicians, self-driving car testers and automotive safety experts, received emails with their severance packages.

This makes more sense than the original reporting that 2000 staff to join AI group.

There would be no steering wheel and no pedals, just a video-game-style controller or iPhone app for driving at low speed as a backup. Alternately, if the car found itself in a situation that it was unable to navigate, passengers would phone in to an Apple command center and ask to be driven remotely.

Good idea but unfortunately Level 5 is at least a decade away. IMHO, Level 5 cannot be achieved with 100% safety records… at least for all traffic and environmental conditions.

Thinking Aloud:
Steve Jobs 1.0: Desktops and Laptops
Steve Jobs 2.0: Handhelds
Tim Cook 1.0: Wearables
Vehicles are much larger than above devices. The logistics, distribution and sale processes are very different. Is a completely new business. It should be a new company run by an entrepreneur, not a manager. I have advocated for a new company not in Apple org is the correct way. Can get suckersinvestors to pay for the R&D. IMHO, should buy Rivian as a standalone company i.e. not in Apple org. Introduce CarPlay and send ex-SPG car specific engineers to Rivian. Take your time to develop level 5.

Tim Sweeney doing that for selfish reason, make more monies for himself. Ditto for Zuck and Daniel. Is amazing there are people so gullible to believe these obnoxious billionaires.



Exactly. In fact what Epic did is worse for society…

Yes, should copy China in limiting gaming and…

Nvdia is on track to supplant Apple as number 2 in highest market cap… I own both but this seems a little crazy…
If Nvdia hits 1000 and Apple drops to $150 it could happen in the next week…

This is called melt-up. Pundits say NVDA is cheap using P/E and PEG for next 12 months :slight_smile: What about the next, then next, then next, then next… get the picture :slight_smile: Is cheap only if it can sustain that kind of growth for 10 years, if not, it would be like TSLA now after it peaked in 2021. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. Current gain for NVDA +250% (3.5x)… I traded a few times before once I stop trading.

Current market theme is: AI, Semi, Crypto… to the moon.
Market somehow doesn’t recognize Apple’s semi prowess and AI capabilities… is either a coiled spring or these departments of AAPL are :-1:

Federal should investigate the business ethics of Epic.

Zuck is on high alert to defend Quest regardless.


Amit talking down Apple with an aim to buy AAPL @$160. He would be front-runned Adam Khoo @$165. One thing is clear, Amit is buying less than 100 shares, otherwise, he could just sell secured put e.g. Sell put (Mar 22, $160) for 35 cents… he would either get assigned at $159.65 or collect premium of 35 cents (total $35 per 100 shares) i.e. no need to wait for share price to decline to $160.

Whether you agree with Zuck or not, and cult members mostly disagree, it’s great to see a CEO directly responding to product questions. Shows he cares and is involved in product designs at a detailed level.

Something you will never see Tim Apple do. Tim is just not a product guy.

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Always hating AAPL. Mouth-tongue debate means nothing. Zuck is doing MTD. You’re doing that too. TC won’t waste time doing so. CEOs should spend their f… time running their companies. Zuck is catching Elon’s disease.

Btw, I don’t know wtf Zuck is talking about, I haven’t got my Vision Pro yet… I’ll understand what the f… people are talking about when I try it out. Btw, as far as I’m concerned, current version is essentially a developer version open for sale for rich guys who want to brag or investors who want to assess its future potential. Any consumers who bought it and complained, I have this to say, :fu: … any1 who complain is expensive, are cheap or just poor… please don’t make it publicly known.

And customers are not buying it. Middle fingers given to Apple.

BTW I think goggles are a dead end. Zuck will spend most of development resources on glasses, while Apple is mired in refining AVP.

Apple actually developed the iPad first. But Steve Jobs realized phones are more important and pivoted to iPhone. Tim should have pivoted to glasses but didn’t. Prove he’s no Steve Jobs.

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If they are not developers, not rich guys or investors, shouldn’t buy. Wait for later versions when it will be cheaper, more advanced and many more apps… Simple as that.

Keep making such ignorant remarks :man_shrugging:. Don’t know is intentional or bad memory. One last time, there are two products in simultaneous development: Apple Vision Pro (Mixed Reality) and Apple Glass (Augmented Reality). Rumors have indicated Apple will release AVP first and release AG few years later… is happening according to rumors… I have linked these rumors here in previous posts… Btw, somewhere in this thread, some moons ago, I express I prefer AG, however, having read and think about it more, AVP is good too and will be here to stay because of a. Privacy b. Large display or multiple-displays. They serve different purpose… your need may not be met by AVP though.

I won’t be that arrogant to think I’m better than TC and is in a position to criticize TC. Upon handing over the reins to TC, SJ told him not to think what he (SJ) will do and just do what he deems fit.

Thinking Aloud: Two groups: People who wear glasses, and people who don’t wear glasses or wear contact glasses. Which group likes spectacle format? Which group likes AR implemented on an iPhone? Will or when society would accept people constantly pointing a camera at them? What about occasionally pointing a camera at them?

Thinking Aloud: Do US education teach critical thinking and deep thinking?

I don’t like appealing to authorities. If you think Tim Cook can’t be criticized then why would you criticize Elon Musk? So we can’t criticize any CEO at all? Not even Ballmer when he made fun of iPhones? Because by default they know more about the companies they are running than any of us.

Apple is a very focused company. They may have glasses under development in parallel, just like they had the car project going on for 10 years. But any given moment in time, there are only a handful of stuff they are focused on. Right now their focus is to make AVP cheaper and lighter. It will keep them occupied for at least 5 years. Feel free to time tag me. I don’t think you will see Apple glasses until at least 2028. Most likely longer than that.

AVP is a desktop computer mounted on your face. Glasses need voice input and AI. Completely different usage models and skillsets. The hype over AVP died down much faster than I expected. Proof that it’s not the right model.

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Thought context is obvious. I am in no position to comment on their business decisions. I criticize Elon and Zuck conduct, not their business decisions.

Above are what the rumors claim. Just some meaningless remarks. We don’t know for sure. Don’t know why you alway treat rumors as realities. All of us know that nowadays, journalism is :-1: They no longer bother to verify, merely reporting anything for sensation.

Rumors have it at 3-5 years, you’re merely repeating rumor. Parroting! Please provide some independent critical thinking based on evidences!

Parroting again. How often should a product meant for developers be talked about by mainstream consumers? If it has died down, how come people keep talking about it? Why are we talking about it? Why is Zuck talking about it?

Use voice! :-1: I don’t like to use voice. As I said, why would one use glass (or AI pin or Rabbit R1) and not an iPhone? This is the third time I ask this question HERE. With a glass/AI pin/ Rabbit R1, it looks like I am speaking to a ghost. With an iPhone, the deliberate action of bringing out an iPhone and pointing at something, talking to the iPhone is not so weird.

Thinking aloud: Parroting is so prevalent, independent original and deep thinking is so rare.

That’s why it won’t be an iPhone. The idea is the new hardware is constantly seeing what the user is seeing. If the user needs to pull out an iphone there is too much friction.

Spectacle or no spectacle, all people wear sunglasses. Distinction is not important.

So now this AVP is for developer only? Was the first version of iPhone and iPad also for developers only? That seems like shifting the goalpost.

When a product has poor sales, just label is as “for developer” and shrug it off.