AAPL and Apple

You are making me laughing even louder.
One is making new ATH after ATH.
The other is trading nearly 60% below previous ATH.

Since Mar 4. TSLA price hardly change. Up???

YTD

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All four bearish views are inaccurate. Point 3 has always been there many decades ago.

Everybody can go to college, not many graduated with Summa Cum Laude.

Listen to a professional who follow AAPL for decades or to an amateur who hardly know Apple the company. Your choice.

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From social media, I deduce that many newbies and amateurs don’t know…

Example of such amateur… whoever call AVP is a failed product is an amateur in my eyes… should go to school to learn new market development, product positioning, first mover vs fast follower, … Sale of AVP is 4x what was initially estimated at launch… way better than expected sale! AVP is targeted at developers and many corporate are exploring at integrating it into their businesses. If you’re a consumer, please wait… meanwhile shut your f… gap unless you want to broadcast your ignorance. AVP and Oculus are targeted at different market.
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Marques asks good questions.

Ironically, AI would lead to people using the iPhone less. Wonder what would happen to unit sale.

Tim Cook is surprised that adoption of Vision Pro amongst businesses is faster than he has expected. Wondering what is the ratio of unit sale to developers, businesses and individuals… My WAG is 55:35:10

Joe comments on above…

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Thought $207 is the completion of wave i. It went as high as $220. Should be in wave ii now :sweat: Target remains at $190s.

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While Elon is still f… with Dojo, Apple has already deployed their AI server chips in the Apple Private Cloud Compute.

For those who are unfamiliar with Apple org, Apple has…
One huge AI division.
One huge Semi division.

Contrary to Apple bears who doesn’t know Apple, Apple is not lagging in this AI arms race. Apple has its own AI strategy which differs from those hyper scalars.

Apple doesn’t need to buy any AI server chips from NVDA as Private Cloud Compute uses Apple silicon (M2 ultra). Also, eventually Apple would move away from using hyperscalars for cloud computing. Apple has caught up with AMD/NVDA at edge chips (CPU, GPU), we can deduce that Apple can catch up with NVDA in server chips.


Jun 2023…

Going forward, what should Apple focus on?
Next generation of Vision Pro?
Launch of cheaper Vision or Vision Air or ?
Should this cheaper version, a strip-down or a new form factor?
Should it be marketed as a new category e.g. Glasses?

What is focus?
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Some old rumors on VR/ AR glasses…

Dated Nov 2021 :slight_smile: many years ago…
Ming-Chi Kuo makes Major Predictions about Apple’s future Mixed Reality Headset that includes a powerhouse processor, 4K Display+

Apple’s future mixed reality headset launching in 2022-2023 will use a processor with the same computing power level as M1 Macs.

Turned out to be true.

Apple’s goal is to replace the iPhone with AR in ten years, which means AR will support a wide range of applications rather than specific applications…

That would be from 2034 onwards… aggressive time frame…

Dated Nov 26, 2021

Other leaks suggest that Apple is in fact planning two distinct versions of the headset.

The first will offer high end VR capabilities but at a high price, which could be aimed at developers.

This was launched and is called Vision Pro.

The more mainstream version would have smaller hardware and a lower price point, aimed primarily at augmented reality is expected to follow later.

Recent rumor indicates this is still in progress.

Apple is executing as per 2021 rumor… mainstream media loves to recycle old rumors (modified slightly with spices) as if they are new. More funny is some bloggers view them as new too. SMH.

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Apple’s iPhone shipments in China surged 40% in May, according to Bloomberg calculations.
Shipments soared more than 50% in April, suggesting Apple is regaining ground in the key market.

Yang isn’t alone in his upbeat view. John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, wrote that Apple is positioning itself as a leader in consumer AI compared with other tech companies.

Analyst Martin Yang increased his price target for Apple to $250 from $200, which implies a 21% increase from the stock’s closing price of $214.10 on Thursday.

If Apple has truly built a secure “enclave” in the cloud for users’ data, as it claims, then Apple doesn’t have to lead with science projects the way OpenAI does. It can offer tailored, focused uses of AI, built on commodity generative AI offerings, that speak to users’ actual priorities in a way that is less likely to make those customers feel robbed of their personal information and their intellectual property.

The thing is, Apple doesn’t have to be at the forefront of generative AI development. A lot of what goes on with “large language models” and chatbots is rapidly becoming a commodity. Not only are there leading open-source AI programs, such as Meta’s Llama-3, there are also smaller companies that can offer a lot of functionality without the huge budget of a Google or a Microsoft. They include startup Databricks, which has demonstrated very competent offerings that are focused on practical use cases without trying to create the be-all and end-all of generative AI.

17 days ago… no change in bigger picture.


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Frankly, not sure which lower degree count is likely. Preferred count in blue labels. Alt count in red labels. Anyhoo, doesn’t matter which count is likely, LT count is in multi-year uptrend wave (V).

According to sources of CTEE, Apple has upped its chip order from partner TSMC. With the increased order in place, Apple is supposedly preparing to sell between 90 million and 100 million units of the iPhone 16.

This is in contrast to what was believed to be an 80 million to 90 million iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro order volume from September 2023.

Edit: Jul 9, 2024


New ATH $229.40. New closing ATH $228.68.

Edit: Jul 8, 2024


New ATH $227.97. New closing ATH $227.82.

Edit: Jul 5, 2024


New ATH $226.45. New closing ATH $226.34 :money_mouth_face:

Edit: Jul 3, 2024
Yet another closing high $221.55 and a new ATH $221.71

Jul 2, 2024
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New ATH $220.34. Closing ATH too.

Wondering Aloud: Would permabears and AAPL haters admit they are wrong and don’t understand AAPL or in denial? Increasingly clear that Apple is not behind in Gen AI and regulatory investigations didn’t find any smoking guns. iPhone unit sale in general and China in particular… unit sale and installed base is different… enough said.


Edit: Jul 5, 2024

Jul 3, 2024



AAPL permabears’ view… only revenue matters… so even if a company loses a dollar for every dollar revenue, so long revenue is growing is worth a lot. IMHO, those slight declines in revenue should be considered as stable and not declining.

Knowledgeable investors…


Healthy increase in gross profit and profit margin.

Exactly. Permabears don’t read SEC filing and just blah, blah, blah.

2.5 years ago, AAPL is trading at $180s, CAGR is about 9.5%, so rise is justified unless you’re looking at recent few months.

Some investors do treat AAPL as such.

Most importantly, market is forward-looking



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Exactly. If looking at ratios of past snapshots is the way to go, every investors/ accountants would be rich.

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Killer features will come from developers. Whatever show during WWDC is a demo of what are possible.

:money_mouth_face:

Similarly, BofA’s analysts found consumers are more willing to buy the Apple Vision Pro than previously expected, despite its hefty price tag. Some 14% of respondents in the U.S. reported that they are planning on buying the Apple Vision Pro, compared to 20% in China, 36% in India, and 8% in the U.K. BofA’s analysts said they view these as high percentages, noting they’re all well above the February survey figures.

Americans are slow to adopt new techs. English are even slower.

2-hourly chart
EWT: AAPL enters into intermediate degree wave iv. Wave iv.a likely completed… with bullish tinted glass could be completion of wave iv… not likely.

Multi-year perspective, no change as per…

So many payment systems and sound about the same. How this impact SQ?

Bears



Just because one can argue logically doesn’t mean is correct. The reason is he is using only a few metrics, real world is more complex and there are more metrics driving demand.

Bulls





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Poor thinks of saving monies.
Rich thinks of spending (leveraging) monies to make more monies.

Look like Amit is monitoring AAPL for the best time to enter. AAPL usually sell-the-earnings, so 2-3 days post-earnings may be the best entry (not-financial-advice)… if he is lucky, could grab some ~$200s.

Thinking Aloud: Is goal of the foldable iPhone is to reduce physical size or increase the size of the display?

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With the Project Titan put on hold, is there a business case for streaming?