AAPL and Apple

Firmware update coming in Fall :grinning:

Karma is catching up with the evil :green_apple:

Apple antitrust probe possible from DOJ, state AGs

Jun. 24, 2020 9:51 AM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)By: Brandy Betz, SA News Editor44 Comments

  • The Justice Department and a group of state attorneys general are speaking with several companies unhappy with Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) App Store policies, according to Politico sources .
  • Developers take issues with the App Store’s 30% cut of most app transaction, and Apple’s inconsistent policies on who has to pay.
  • Politico’s sources declined to identify the state AGs that are participating in the process.
  • The talks indicate that U.S. antitrust authorities could soon start gathering the documents and information needed for a full probe.
  • Apple’s antitrust woes have so far been limited to Europe. Last week, the EU regulators opened fresh investigations into Apple’s App Store and Pay.
1 Like

How much research? We believe the top 5 are great, by default, but leverage market is beating them way ahead, but leverage market is for trade.

You’re not wrong but is out of context with what I had said.

What I meant was during crisis like Mar this year, can pump all-in to those stocks to be held (hopefully forever).

Yes, there is no doubt to put 100% on one stock or set of leader stocks, but we must know the bottom properly.

Same way, we need to know when the top is there to release the cash and wait for possible bottom.

This is what everyone (retail trader to Hedge funds) wants to do (buy low and sell high), big swings one or two times an year.

If we do not sell, we will not have money as we invested all-in-one first time. If we do not have cash, we will not be able to buy when we see real dip. This results trade (not buy/hold).

This is exactly warren buffet trying to do, keep 30% cash (using his dividends/cash flow) and wait for deep discounted opportunity.

He can not invest all-in-one, but 70% invested so that he holds for long, holding cash 30% for opportunity. WB can not put all-in-one, but waiting too long (years) before getting the deal. Why 70%-30%? It is based on Kelly Criterion. These are theories, but works well for buy/hold.

Created in 1956 by John Kelly , a Bell Labs scientist, the Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing bets or investments from which the investor expects a positive return. It is the only formula I’ve seen that comes with a mathematical proof explaining why it can deliver higher long-term returns than any alternative.

rotating cash?

@Jil

You didn’t follow the drift. You are looping back to step 1 :wink: Again out of context with the drift.

1 Like

what do you mean by drift? I do not get it, explain.

  1. I show you a thought experiment of why buy&hold is better than trading in the long run (depending on return, buy&hold would overtake eventually, my experiment indicates 10 years) because traders tend to limit the capital for trading e.g. $1M. Whereas buy&hold is always all-in.

  2. You said couldn’t find a company that you would all-in because hard to research.

  3. I said no need much research for well known companies with well documented fundamentals e.g. AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, FB and GOOG. So can buy them if they are brought down by crisis such as in Mar. Always scale in (preferred way by professionals) so don’t have to know the bottom. Can scale in via sell puts or buy underlaying, your preference. In any case, easy to use weekly chart to gauge it is within 20% to bottom.

  4. You then compare trading vs buy&hold using trading and WB 70/30 i.e. debating trading vs buy&hold. Back to 1 :neutral_face:

1 Like

But, buy & hold is not easy to identify during the early phase of a company. If someone expected Lunchin going to be next Starbuck or NIO as next Tesla and invested 1M during IPO, think of the situation.

Now, coming to no need research companies (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, FB and GOOG), I have the picture proving leveraged index (TQQQ and UPRO) winning over all these 5 companies.

For the first point, I do not have that much long experience. The point here is (if we are able guess the top and bottom cycles), using leveraged index funding we can go all-in-one up to 10M or 20M level easily. As long as single order of 1M does not distort the pricing, we will be able to go (as a retail investor).

If I am able trade UPRO and TQQQ from Mar 23th, I can get more than 120% return easily (even with 1M level).

Is it possible to trade like this? Yes, it is possible (even at 1+M level as all-in-one ETF).

IMO, Buy/Hold is a concept workable as long you are able to identify/vision at the early stage, but not on the big 1T companies now.

Today, with so much advanced in technology, algorithms have an edge over common retail investors.

Obviously :crazy_face:

Refer to my thought experiment.

Did you?

Now you are talking.

How come @marcus335 is able to identify TWLO and SHOP? And @wuqijun is able to identify TSLA? Apparently @wuqijun think SQ is the next big one similar to TSLA. Still not too big market cap yet, $46B, 20x more to go :slight_smile: TWLO is $30B and SHOP is $110B, 35x and 10x more to go.

Anyway, we are back to step 1 :slight_smile: Wake me up when you’re trading $10M daily :slight_smile:
I use to know two bloggers trading AAPLs at $1M daily, both have their heads handed back to them i.e. lost bundles! even though AAPL is in an insanely great bull run for years.

1 Like

The way you are able to identify AAPL, they do the same and win !

Wake me up when you’re trading $10M daily => I will be out of this blog then ! It is swing trade, not daily trade.

1 Like

Do you swing trade with 100% of your portfolio?

1 Like

Yes, Appx this way.

When I sell it is 100% sale (no second thought), but when I buy it will be 80% first purchase and 20% second purchase. Most of the times sale point of view is coming correct, but buy comes two or three times. I am trying to refine the logic (various ways), still it is not accurate.

Back tested the script, 2 years to 10 years,and it gave me 80% and 90% are safer to buy get maximum return for UPRO/TQQQ.

Additional information: I have another logic which buys variable percentage basis (from 1% to 63% range) and sells at variable percentage basis, but the profit margin was less than 100% portfolio sale. Tested TQQQ, VOO, UPRO from 2 to 10 years and variable percentage buys/sells are giving lower return.

1 Like

staying in the market is just as important. Staying out to time entry sometime does not work because it is hard to tell what market will do next. Despite the consensus, market is refusing to retest the march lows, at least for now.

I am hoping, not forecasting, market will retest Mar low so I can load up :cloud: stocks aggressively :money_mouth_face: rested Mar-May :thought_balloon: can buy at bargain price instead all are at ATHs :pleading_face:

Have wanted to do this way but can’t resist looking at many tickers :confounded: Will try to focus on UPRO :hugs:

Normally, TQQQ is giving better returns, at least 5%-7% over UPRO, but the volatility risk is also high with TQQQ. UPRO has spread the risk on 500 companies while TQQQ spread it among 100 companies.

Remember the important part: When market went down Jun 11th 6.9% single day,
I saw 21.46% drop in value, i.e. if 1 Millions investment, we will see $200k+ single day drop ! I escaped that big hit (and bought on that day) and it is not tolerable (if invested) with all-in-one. But you would have faced it with AAPL many times.

1 Like