Really good article that tries to take a different look at factors influencing COVID transmission and strategies to contain it. Short summary: COVID is a super-spreading disease, unlike flu, hence most effective way to counter it is with targeted shutdown of large indoor gatherings vs blanket lockdowns. And backward tracing is more important than forward tracing. Cheap quick less-precise tests are more useful than expensive slow highly-accurate tests.
“We can think of disease patterns as leaning deterministic or stochastic: In the former, an outbreak’s distribution is more linear and predictable; in the latter, randomness plays a much larger role and predictions are hard, if not impossible, to make.”
“Japan’s commitment to ‘cluster-busting’ allowed it to achieve impressive mitigation with judiciously chosen restrictions. Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds: burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation. The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.”
Boris Johnson didn’t exactly strike me as the most health conscious person. And testing positive doesn’t even mean you’re sick with it, just that you were exposed. Trump’s been campaigning heavily while his opponent hides in a closet somewhere; I’m surprised this didn’t happen earlier. I’ve been to all sorts of gatherings here in central AZ in the last few months. Two Williams gun shows with over a hundred non-mask wearers crammed into a barn. The Lincoln Dinner w/Gosar, McSally, etc. and no one wearing masks. The opening of the Rep headquarters in Payson - everyone crammed body to body. Plenty of eating out. If I try to add up ll the unmasked exposures in a confined space since, say, May it approachs 1000 people. I’d be surprised if I didn’t test positive.
If I’d kept up the pace Trump has for the past two months I’d’ be flat on my back and I’m about two decades younger. How ill did he seem three days ago?
Just too bad his opponent doesn’t think the job or the country is worth any effort or risk.
Roughly 86 percent reported they continued to suffer from fatigue 165 days after their first symptom surfaced. Around 59 percent said they had shortness of breath while 36 said they were afflicted with pressure in the chest. The average age of patients in the study was 48, with 86 percent saying they were in good health before the infection.
This is NL study. Not Americans. Meaningless.
All the Americans I know that have it either died if old and sick or had minor symptoms and are fine.
This BS study implies the are 5m or 6m Americans walking around with post covid19 symptoms.
Why not compare these numbers to people who had pneumonia in the last year?
Your chances of catching Covid are a hundred times greater than your chances of dying from it.
For all those who call Trump a hypocrite for telling the country to open up while he and everyone he saw was tested everyday here is his buddy Putin, who has been isolated for the last 6 months.
I don’t think everyone can have Putin’s level of protection. So even Trump who has been tested regularly and is relatively isolated gets sick.
We are all vulnerable and many more will get sick.
Testing has little value. Isolation is impossible especially for long periods of time. The vaccine has little chance of being 100% effective. So why are RE prices and stocks going up so fast?
The market is up because the Fed and government have injected unprecedented stimulus ($6B in spending on $3B in revenue, the largest deficit on a percentage basis since WW2)
Real estate is up because the wealthy want more space to quarantine…
i follow European news far more. Putin travel alot more than anyone else including every parada and ever major construction projects. it is about quality of testing. to know that person sitting next to it has been tested and that test is accurate on time.
It’s not about quality of testing. In fact, quite the reverse. It’s about the speed at which you get results which is far more important than test quality. A 100% accurate test that takes days to complete is useless against a virus that only spreads through a small fraction of super-spreaders within the population.
The fact that the Trump team was just fine for months and then everyone got it at a single event indicates why it has been difficult to control not only for the US but for the world. All our strategies are based on people having a roughly equal chance of spreading COVID. But that’s not how it spreads.
This also explains why the WHO and CDC changed their minds about masks more often than I change my underwear. Their statisticians had no idea how this thing spreads- they figured it was onesey twosey like any normal virus. If wearing a mask is immaterial almost all the time - even in the presence of infected people - but critical that one time you encounter a super-spreader and even then it may not protect you how were those poor statisticians supposed to figure it out?
“Everyone wants to reopen,” Trueger said. “Everyone wants to go back to normal. Everyone wants to have people employed and go into work and have kids in school and doing well. But it really doesn’t look like that’s going to be safe. And we’re going to pay the price for this down the road.”
