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@Jil

Better FOMO buy! Big open up of economy soon, doesn’t matter who is the POTUS.

Remember leading edge wave i almost always follows by a furious rally wave iii, the only issue is don’t know when wave ii would be completed which I think doesn’t matter, just buy and keep averaging in if decline.

It matters, If Biden is going to be there, I am convinced economy will be doomed like Obama period - as there is increase in corporate tax.

However, I have that covered by 20% buy and hold, not touched. I filled up 8% to 10% already.

Balance 80% on trading, that is fun.

In my life, I do not think I will get FOMO anymore ! FOMO is a killer !!

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You took steroid?

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Seasoned, I hope , not changing course. I have appx 10% hold. If those drop in value, I DCA more with balance 10%.

Rest nicely trading with volatility or cash mode or holding 3X.

I think the lessening of regulations has had a far greater economic impact than any of the tax cuts. Obama’s stance of taxes was more or less neutral. He kept 80% of the Bush cuts. It’s the goons he put in at Interior, EPA, Labor etc. that gave us the weakest recession recovery in history. If they get recycled back that will be the real killer. The fact that the page count of the CFR dropped for the first time in 30 years doesn’t get any coverage but it’s huge.
Another risk is the weaker dollar which has characterized Democratic administrations since '92 (at least in the first two years before they get de-balled in the first midterm). Combine it with a ban on fracking and we now have to import our oil with those weaker dollars.
Beyond the material is of course civil liberties which are at extreme risk. At least some of the progress there will be hard to undo. No more turning a tiny rill in someone’s backyard into a “navigable waterway.”

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is good for manufacturers like AAPL :slight_smile:

Good for lots of manufactures in the short run. Good for the portfolio of anyone with foreign holdings - or even precious metals. But it’s hard to find an example of a country which achieved prosperity in the long run by running down its currency.

What I learn from economic 101.

Nations that net export, prefer weak currency.
Nations that net import, prefer strong currency. SG prefers a strong S$.

Poor countries want strong exports so they can become rich countries. But at some point they want their people to be able to improve their standard of living with greater purchasing power. So, a weak currency in the short run may be of benefit but I’m not sure any country wants it to go on forever.
BTW - the disaster of the Euro is that during times of economic stress the poor southern countries can’t devalue. So Germany’s currency is too weak and Italy’s is too strong - because they are the same currency. But I don’t think anyone thinks a permanently weak and ever weaker currency is a long term path to prosperity.

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Countries need to have strong domestic market to become a economic power. Export means dependency on someone else’s consumption.

Is US a net import or export?

Good Question. But USA is next exporter of lot of high tech, and financial assets. Per one theory, the trade deficit is paid for by the FDI, which US gets a lot.

Added Later: Think of it like this. Lot of countries give USA a line of credit to buy their exports. For example, China sells (or used to sell) a lot of merchandise to USA, at the same time it used to buy lot of US debts.

So better to have a weaker or stronger dollar?

IIRC, Trump wants weaker dollar to help the mid West auto/ steel industry. However, some1 here seems to think stronger dollar is good. From my years of monitoring AAPL, it always do extremely well when dollar is weakened which is consistent with what I have learned from econ 101.

The exchange rate is relative (if that is what you mean by a strong dollar). It is like Tesla Stock after a split, it is still a Tesla stock.

Long on theory, short on conclusion :slight_smile:

Without government intervention or forex speculation, exchange rate is determined by trade between nations.

However, in order to achieve certain goals, governments usually intervene to maintain a stronger or weaker currency. So for USA, should FED maintain a stronger or weaker currency?

I presume you don’t know :roll_eyes:

There is no strong or weak dollar (other than the exchange rate ) . The underlying economy can be weak or strong. The dollar is strong or weak due to underlying economy. Think of a currency as stock of a countries economy.

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Exchange rate is determined by the demand and supply of the currency. If a currency is in higher demand, its exchange rate will rise. People demand a foreign currency for several reasons: to buy a foreign good or service, to travel, to pay for education, or to buy financial or real assets in the foreign country.

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You did not listen to Powell’s Testimony to congress. Current and Previous FED chairs reiterated this in many testimonies to congress.

He answered that FED won’t maintain the currency as FED’s mandate is maintaining maximum employment and maintaining stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.

Note: This is only to clarify/explain. I did not read the entire thread and do not want to participate the politics or something else.

Which is determined by trade :face_with_symbols_over_mouth: and don’t quote out of context! Your quote has intentionally removed the caveat. What you give in example is called trade!!!

I want him to explain why he thinks stronger currency is better for US?

Instead beat around the bush, give theory.

Somehow some people can’t directly answer the question.

At present, US dollar is weakened, is it bad? If it is based on demand and supply, then no such thing as good or bad, right? Is just a natural course of occurrence. Only when government want to achieve certain goals, it would intervene to weaken or strengthen currency. Since FED is not interested in intervention, it doesn’t have any goals that need to… which is BS ofc. It just want to do it subtly i.e. won’t go to the forex market, directly trade the currency.

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