Hmm, What Is Apple Doing?


#2394

Hopefully Supreme Court will destroy the Apple App Store in time for my bet to win. :smiling_imp:


#2395

Your bet is moving target, first it was $180, next it moved to $150…:rofl: But, I like that $150 to buy again.

Let your dream come true (Sure, hanera may not like me saying this !) :rofl::rofl::rofl:

When it comes to $150, Before Jan 31 2019 or next quarterly report whichever earlier, I will buy 500 AAPL shares. If AAPL comes to $150, ROIC is 12.75% (Estimate) provided AAPL maintains the forecast.

When it comes to $150, I also suspect Berkshire will buy again the stock.


#2396

Ok, time for wifey to get her upgrade…


#2397

Jim Cramer says to buy AAPL…now

manch, are you listening?


#2398

Jim Cramer makes money being a taking head. Watch for entertainment only. Don’t take him too seriously.


#2399


#2400

Will it go to $190 first or $150 first? :smile:


#2401

That is a dumb question. Whichever direction first so long it is going to $190, you make money :slight_smile:
Say you buy now and it goes to $150, you double your bet, and make more.
If it does to $190, you make only $20.
If both targets will be achieved, you would want it to go to $150 first :slight_smile: Can you figure out the logic?
Either way you make money.


#2402

Apple is mostly a rent seeking company now, robbing 30% off app developers hard work for doing nothing. Will slow down more and more from now on.


#2403

Don’t be influenced by dumb journalists and unscrupulous competitors that hire PR firms to throw FUDs about their competitors.


#2404

How much does Android take? Is it not the same business model?


#2405

Android phones can more easily install non-google store apps. iPhones are completely locked down.

There is very good antitrust case against apple. The current Supreme Court case may not be it though. It’s just about whether consumers have legal standing to sue apple. It seems they don’t because apple takes the 30% from developers not consumers. So consumers are not directly harmed.


#2406

I have been watching AAPL for possible low point. Here I see, Apple filled one gap at $170 and very likely touch the second gap when depressed further. The next possible gap filling point is around $165, worst low point is $160.

IMO, it will unlikely touch the magic figure of $150 and rare chance to touch $160 (Possible low).

Reason:

Most of the bloggers (so called Analysts) are wrongly showing their own crooked analysis using supplier side data. Possibly, they may not even have real life industrial experience, just bloggers to earn money. They do not know the real strength of big company like AAPL.

Walmart and other stores run out of iphone XS and XS Max during thanksgiving sale. I tried to get one from Walmart online within 15 minutes of online store open, it said “Out of stock”.

This time, Amazon is also opened up fro Apple iPhone, possible increase in sales.

First, Tim Cook won’t forecast a 88B-92.5B without a backup data. Big companies always have custom forecast software to provide guidance. In fact, higher management (CEO, CFO level) every day will be getting updated summary of orders, revenue, work-in-progress, sector by sector, region by region.

Unless Tim Cook revise forecast figure in next 33 days, Apple meets its original forecast revenue and profit as planned.

Second, equal to company forecast, Berkshire would have drilled down their own forecast before putting their money into any company. Even last quarter they added appx 500000+ shares of AAPL. They will definitely add more this quarter seeing the exceptional revenue around 90B.

Simple example of Berkshire investment is seen yesterday and today with STNE. The revenue and profit margins are surprise and growing nicely quarter by quarter. Today, my profit from STNE jumped to $70000 (peak price 25.70). This is the beauty of Berkshire Pick Stock.

We will end up with AAPL exactly like that, unexpected results.

Instead of waiting, I got it around $172 now (Otherwise, I may lose this opportunity too), and setup another GTC at $168 and another at $165 beyond which rare to get in.

Apple has come to exceptionally low point, a rare chance to get in and hold for life.


#2407

Stop picking on @manch. His entire portfolio is probably not even 1/10 of your Aapl holdings… :slight_smile:


#2408

I see you are in high spirits again. Happy days are here again.


#2409

I got into STNE - life time low point of the company, lower than Berkshire entry point. This is for long hold growing revenue with 20%+ profit margin.

I trust Berkshire decision most. Analysts are junk, they write for money, but Berkshire picks for their quality, fame and real strong growth, rare chances of failure. AAPL is his best pick.

I expect big - sudden change for AAPL after the results are declared like STNE or TEVA or TSLA. I almost got 70% of my allocated AAPL, leaving 30% for possible low point.

Just to make my own assessment, I went to few malls during thanksgiving time, seen lot of crowd as usual. Then, Bloomberg reported 61. - 6.4 YOY growth.

Concluded: All negative analysis are junk, Mr.Market reactions are temporary as consumers are in full swing.

Source: Bloomberg TV


#2410

That is what I did in early days.


#2411

Apple seems to be toast:

Here’s beer-lover I-swear-I-am-not-a-rapist Kavanaugh:

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, another conservative Trump appointee, pushed back against Francisco’s contention that Apple’s actions are not the direct cause of higher prices for consumers, because app makers set the final prices. Kavanaugh pointed out that “consumers are harmed then, too.”

Kavanaugh later suggested that the plaintiffs would have a more clear-cut right to sue if Apple bought the apps from the developers and sold them to consumers with its 30 percent commission.


#2412

#2413

Analysts are paid by vested parties to write like this. Retail investors, believing it is correct, get out of stocks unfortunately.

Bernstein’s analysis does not include any potential hits to Apple from tariffs. The company’s stock slid on Tuesday after President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. could place a and laptops made in China.

Apple’s full year 2019 earnings are about $12.34 a share when comparing the current product cycle to the iPhone 6S cycle in 2016, according to Sacconaghi. Those earnings would be about 7 percent below Wall Street’s current consensus for next year, Sacconaghi said.

The issue is 7% below - just a negative statement, and every retail investor, who does not analyze the absolute facts land up into issues/losses.

With $175/share, return on our investment capital gets higher around 10%+ . In absolute value, Apple is far better than many companies.

That is the main reason, big investors like Warren Buffet reaps the benefit of making better return than retail investors.

Warren Buffet:

  1. “I’d rather buy a great business at a reasonable price than a reasonable business at a great price.”
  2. “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

Read this chapter 2 of Margin of safety

MOS_Read_chapter_2